Does anyone know the top 10 contenders for individuals to qualify for NXN? I have a nephew running, but it doesn't appear he will be fast enough!! ( he runs a 16:30 which is plenty fast for the regular world).
It gets kind of confusing because there seems to be so many divisions. My understanding is that only the top 5 from the state final race get to qualify.
Does anyone know the top 10 contenders for individuals to qualify for NXN? I have a nephew running, but it doesn't appear he will be fast enough!! ( he runs a 16:30 which is plenty fast for the regular world).
It gets kind of confusing because there seems to be so many divisions. My understanding is that only the top 5 from the state final race get to qualify.
Yeah it's top 5 individuals in the state. You'd probably need to be running below 15:00 5K to even have any reasonable shot, and the actual qualifiers are probably going to be running sub 14:50 at the state meet.
I think it's too hard to really list a top 10. State meet course is a different kind of beast that sometimes destroys even the best California runners.
This post was edited 23 seconds after it was posted.
Now compared to nxr midwest and northwest, these performances would have some difficulty qualifying in those regions. I think it's too early to say that they are a contender for a national title.
Now compared to nxr midwest and northwest, these performances would have some difficulty qualifying in those regions. I think it's too early to say that they are a contender for a national title.
Impressive showing from the St. Francis at CCS - after their 3rd place finish at Clovis I think they could be eying a podium finish at the state meet. Bar insane improvement from some of the underclassmen, I don't see an NXN bid next year since they are loosing two scoring seniors.
Now compared to nxr midwest and northwest, these performances would have some difficulty qualifying in those regions. I think it's too early to say that they are a contender for a national title.
Impressive showing from the St. Francis at CCS - after their 3rd place finish at Clovis I think they could be eying a podium finish at the state meet. Bar insane improvement from some of the underclassmen, I don't see an NXN bid next year since they are loosing two scoring seniors.
I disagree.
St. Francis‘s team finish at Clovis was with one of their seniors finishing 7th. And if you switch the points of their only scoring senior (who finished 4th) with their 6th runner (a returning freshmen) then they STILL would still have finished 5th as a team at Clovis. Also, St. Francis is the top girls running program in CCS so I wouldn’t underestimate the chance that a fast freshman might join next year like they have every year lately.
Now compared to nxr midwest and northwest, these performances would have some difficulty qualifying in those regions. I think it's too early to say that they are a contender for a national title.
Impressive showing from the St. Francis at CCS - after their 3rd place finish at Clovis I think they could be eying a podium finish at the state meet. Bar insane improvement from some of the underclassmen, I don't see an NXN bid next year since they are loosing two scoring seniors.
Also, don’t forget when St. Francis girls went from finishing in 19th in Division 2 in 2018 to finishing 2nd in Division 2 in 2019. They have a really good coach who honestly might’ve brought the team to NXN in 2020 if not for Covid.
Does anyone know the top 10 contenders for individuals to qualify for NXN? I have a nephew running, but it doesn't appear he will be fast enough!! ( he runs a 16:30 which is plenty fast for the regular world).
It gets kind of confusing because there seems to be so many divisions. My understanding is that only the top 5 from the state final race get to qualify.
California is super competitive. That being said, despite early season hurdles, I'm highly confident that Evan Noonan will qualify as an individual.
Female California individual qualifiers -- excluding likely team qualifiers -- Sadie Engelhardt, Rylee Blade, Holly Barker -- Summer Wilson
Jogging a 14:03 3-mile for league finals LMAO if you've watched the video at all
Pretty clear he is in some solid shape even after early season setback. Going to run at states, maybe not as fast as last year, but enough to qualify. (He can run like 15 seconds slower and still probably make it)
This post was edited 39 seconds after it was posted.
Reason provided:
14:02 to 14:03
I am a little surprised Holman was 15:10 and got a 187 speed rating. I feel like that seems awfully low for a time like that. I looked back last year and he ran 15:20 and his rating was 190. Very strange…
Now compared to nxr midwest and northwest, these performances would have some difficulty qualifying in those regions. I think it's too early to say that they are a contender for a national title.
Both of those races are rated fairly low, although the best teams probably were not running all-out, just hard enough to ensure qualification. Very few runners on the teams I track ran a season best SR, and those that did, it wasn't by much. In my mock merge standings, I think only Mountain View moved at all.
Selfishly, I do hope they rate the San Diego section, even though it is a bit of a down year, and nothing nationally significant happened. But I have very little data for those teams because they are rarely speed rated, and while this year is down, the top teams seem to have 4 or 5 top runners returning. Still unlikely to be in the NXN conversation, but will be much better next year.
Small chance for Mt Sac rain course this weekend at SS finals with the current weather report. Right now the rain doesn't start until the afternoon, but it could easily move to earlier on Saturday with how many days are left until then.
Now compared to nxr midwest and northwest, these performances would have some difficulty qualifying in those regions. I think it's too early to say that they are a contender for a national title.
Dyestat would seem to disagree with you, as they have 5 CA boys -- Trey Caldwell to Broen Holman -- ranked 16th to 29th nationally from its most recent list on November 7th. Pretre and Stefanopoulos (another CCS champ with a sub-15:00 time @ Crystal Springs) are mentioned in the next group of 10. They are ranked near or ahead of several who have already raced NXRs and have won or have done very well.
In fact, Ben Crane just won NXR Midwest -- as Dyestat's 23rd ranked runner.
Lesson I have learned over the years: don't become wed to the Tully speed rankings. As well as Dyestat rankings, for that matter. Otherwise, you would be judging runners as if you are comparing basketball players based solely upon statistics such as scoring averages or rebounds/game.
When Trey Caldwell and now three others break a 51-year-old record set by a former historically great runner -- and these current athletes have already participated in national championships as well as having sub-9/3200s to their name -- you know they are amongst the best in the nation. When Broen Holman finishes 10th @ Woodbridge within 14 seconds of recent NXR NW Champ Tayvon Kitchen, then finishes within 7 seconds of a German Fernandez record, you don't need any further proof to know he is capable of contending for a national championship.
So, in addition to these calculations, simply believe what your eyes see.
Tully speed rankings apparently provide excellent motivation for non-elite runners and may work well for that 99.99% of the xc population. While Dyestat rankings are fun, trivial exercises. However, for the creme-de-la-creme, it's worth time and effort to dig deeper to obtain a better perspective -- as this and previous posts have provided.
Now compared to nxr midwest and northwest, these performances would have some difficulty qualifying in those regions. I think it's too early to say that they are a contender for a national title.
Dyestat would seem to disagree with you, as they have 5 CA boys -- Trey Caldwell to Broen Holman -- ranked 16th to 29th nationally from its most recent list on November 7th. Pretre and Stefanopoulos (another CCS champ with a sub-15:00 time @ Crystal Springs) are mentioned in the next group of 10. They are ranked near or ahead of several who have already raced NXRs and have won or have done very well.
In fact, Ben Crane just won NXR Midwest -- as Dyestat's 23rd ranked runner.
Lesson I have learned over the years: don't become wed to the Tully speed rankings. As well as Dyestat rankings, for that matter. Otherwise, you would be judging runners as if you are comparing basketball players based solely upon statistics such as scoring averages or rebounds/game.
When Trey Caldwell and now three others break a 51-year-old record set by a former historically great runner -- and these current athletes have already participated in national championships as well as having sub-9/3200s to their name -- you know they are amongst the best in the nation. When Broen Holman finishes 10th @ Woodbridge within 14 seconds of recent NXR NW Champ Tayvon Kitchen, then finishes within 7 seconds of a German Fernandez record, you don't need any further proof to know he is capable of contending for a national championship.
So, in addition to these calculations, simply believe what your eyes see.
Tully speed rankings apparently provide excellent motivation for non-elite runners and may work well for that 99.99% of the xc population. While Dyestat rankings are fun, trivial exercises. However, for the creme-de-la-creme, it's worth time and effort to dig deeper to obtain a better perspective -- as this and previous posts have provided.
+1 to everything said here. This thread either dooms too hard or is far to overconfident every year going into states and nationals.
Dyestat would seem to disagree with you, as they have 5 CA boys -- Trey Caldwell to Broen Holman -- ranked 16th to 29th nationally from its most recent list on November 7th. Pretre and Stefanopoulos (another CCS champ with a sub-15:00 time @ Crystal Springs) are mentioned in the next group of 10. They are ranked near or ahead of several who have already raced NXRs and have won or have done very well.
In fact, Ben Crane just won NXR Midwest -- as Dyestat's 23rd ranked runner.
Lesson I have learned over the years: don't become wed to the Tully speed rankings. As well as Dyestat rankings, for that matter. Otherwise, you would be judging runners as if you are comparing basketball players based solely upon statistics such as scoring averages or rebounds/game.
When Trey Caldwell and now three others break a 51-year-old record set by a former historically great runner -- and these current athletes have already participated in national championships as well as having sub-9/3200s to their name -- you know they are amongst the best in the nation. When Broen Holman finishes 10th @ Woodbridge within 14 seconds of recent NXR NW Champ Tayvon Kitchen, then finishes within 7 seconds of a German Fernandez record, you don't need any further proof to know he is capable of contending for a national championship.
So, in addition to these calculations, simply believe what your eyes see.
Tully speed rankings apparently provide excellent motivation for non-elite runners and may work well for that 99.99% of the xc population. While Dyestat rankings are fun, trivial exercises. However, for the creme-de-la-creme, it's worth time and effort to dig deeper to obtain a better perspective -- as this and previous posts have provided.
+1 to everything said here. This thread either dooms too hard or is far to overconfident every year going into states and nationals.
I just think it's best to just trust speed ratings for what they are. When a regions speed ratings get lowered, it means that region probably had too high of speed ratings. Northeast and California had their speed ratings lowered so we will see if that can hold up at nationals. Ben Crane's 197 would definitely elevate his dyestat rankings. As of now, I think ben crane could have possibly been in the 14:0s range at Crystal spring. Dyestat/Milesplit use speed ratings as well. I have used speed ratings for 2 years now (this year and last year) and they have been very good.
+1 to everything said here. This thread either dooms too hard or is far to overconfident every year going into states and nationals.
I just think it's best to just trust speed ratings for what they are. When a regions speed ratings get lowered, it means that region probably had too high of speed ratings. Northeast and California had their speed ratings lowered so we will see if that can hold up at nationals. Ben Crane's 197 would definitely elevate his dyestat rankings. As of now, I think ben crane could have possibly been in the 14:0s range at Crystal spring. Dyestat/Milesplit use speed ratings as well. I have used speed ratings for 2 years now (this year and last year) and they have been very good.
actually just discard this...you have lots of valid points I will just wait until woodward park times come up to make my analysis on california top boy runners.
I am a little surprised Holman was 15:10 and got a 187 speed rating. I feel like that seems awfully low for a time like that. I looked back last year and he ran 15:20 and his rating was 190. Very strange…
Speed rankings for the best runners will indicate what you already know: runners with numbers in the 180s and higher are the best runners in the nation.
However, don't disappear down the Tully rabbit hole, chasing minutia involved in an abstract mathematical calculation.
All you need to know is that Holman came within 7 seconds of a German Fernandez record, a time he ran to win the 2007 SJS Champs two weeks before his still-standing 14:24 CR state win @ Woodward Park.
His race against Eli Fitchen-Young/Santa Cruz for the D4 State title @ Woodward Park on Nov 30th could be the highlight match-up of the day -- and could result in both racing the final 100 meters with the crowd cheering them on to try to break German's record.
I just think it's best to just trust speed ratings for what they are. When a regions speed ratings get lowered, it means that region probably had too high of speed ratings. Northeast and California had their speed ratings lowered so we will see if that can hold up at nationals. Ben Crane's 197 would definitely elevate his dyestat rankings. As of now, I think ben crane could have possibly been in the 14:0s range at Crystal spring. Dyestat/Milesplit use speed ratings as well. I have used speed ratings for 2 years now (this year and last year) and they have been very good.
Following is a metric to consider re: Crystal Springs which was discussed ad nauseam on the "Trey Caldwell" thread following his 14:27.1/2.95 mile hs CR performance last month, taking down Crystal's 51-year-old boys record.
The fastest time ever run on Crystal Springs' 2.95 course (in use since 1972) is 14:14 by Matt Giusto at the 1987 Turkey Trot, a few days following his 20th place @ NCAAs. Matt had finished 3rd @ NCAAs the year before so he was anxious to show to himself his NCAA result was just a bad race and not indicative of what he was capable of achieving. He was going all out, trying to break 14:00, but per a friend of his who posted on the Caldwell thread, Matt admitted the course was just too difficult for him to run any faster.
Giusto was far fitter at that time than any high school boy, then or now. His 14:14 is far above the ceiling of any high school boy racing Crystal, today or in the foreseeable future.
Thus, Eli Fitchen-Young's 14:23.5 CR from this past weekend I expect to last for years to come. And, very much doubt we'll see 14:20 broken for another generation or two.
So, if you think Ben Crane or any other hs boy today could run "14:0s" @ Crystal Springs, you are dead-to-rights wrong. If that opinion is based upon Tully speed ratings, the algorithm needs an upgrade.
However, I do understand how one may believe 14-flat is achievable today on a "short course" measuring just 2.95 miles, especially given how many hs sub-9 2-milers are out there today along with the hs 5000 record now down to 13:25.86.
The reason for this false assumption is lack of knowledge of how unique Crystal Springs is. It is more comparable to a mountain trail course than any cross country course in use today. In terms of difficulty, Crystal puts Mt. SAC to shame, not to mention Woodward Park.
Crystal is unimaginably daunting. You need to have raced it multiple times to know when to conserve and when to hit the gas, to have confidence you can go "all out" and still be in racing mode at the finish line. Which is what Mitch Kingery did back in the early 1970s and what these NorCal record-breaking boys have been doing in recent years.
Probably few who read this forum had ever heard of Crystal Springs before this fall. They sure do now.
If you are ever visiting the San Francisco Bay Area, drive on over to Belmont and give Crystal a walk through. Put it on your bucket list.
Just take a look back to 2022 when Wes Shipsey of Central Catholic (another nationally ranked runner at the time) ran the Crystal Springs course. He only managed to run a 14:54 barely beating Fitchen-Young. That just goes to show how difficult Crystal Springs tends to be.
