Down goes the Dow

His head's about to explode.

Stock buyback remain at record levels. Historically high corporate stock buybacks occur at market tops. Nothing else needs to be said.

Oh, I'm sorry, I forgot, this time is different.

Good luck though, you'll need it.

Igy

Tweet from John Hussman:

"Every price increase transforms 'prospective future return' into 'realized past return.' One is most awful when the other is most beautiful."

Historically high corporate stock buybacks occur at market tops. Nothing else needs to be said.

So this is a market top. I think we already know that. It's been a new market top seemingly every day recently.

Try,

OK, the market closed 1.5% higher than the previous record of May 2015. In between we have had two drops in excess of 12%, and one of 5% just last month. Last Twelve Month S&P 500 GAAP EPS have fallen from $105.96 (09/30/2014) to $86.44 (03/31/2016), a drop of over 18%. Earnings are expected fall again this quarter on a year over year basis. The S&P 500 Index value is up almost 10% during this period of falling earnings. So if you want to really keep up I would pay attention to earnings data, rather than the level of the market.

Igy

Earnings reports lately have been mostly positive.

Joe,

We have only an early sample of Q2 2016 earnings. Here is a list of observation dates and estimates for Q2 2016 non-GAAP S&P 500 EPS: 3/31/2015 = $33.27, 6/30/2015 = $32.27, 9/30/2015 = $31.82, 12/31/2015 = $31.02, 3/31/2016 = $29.05, 6/30/2016 = $28.32 and 7/7/2016 = $28.08. In one week alone earnings have been marked down by 24 cents. Keep in mind these are non-GAAP also referred to as operating earnings. The illustration above shows the weakness of numbers used by Wall Street analysts. Year end estimates are more a function of fiction than fantasy.

Igy

Jim Cramer disagrees with Igy, what does that say?

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/07/14/cramer-stop-wasting-my-time-stock-prices-are-justified.html

I'm not referring to estimates. I'm talking about actual earnings.

Joe,

S&P adjusts the earnings estimates to reflect actual numbers as the earnings come in. Already adjusted downward in just one week.

Igy

So what? It's not about estimates. Why do you evade the fact that actual earnings are looking good so far?

Joe,

You are not getting it. S&P starts Q2 2016 with a gross number based on the average earnings estimate of each of 500 companies. On an individual level it is the same estimate that becomes a miss or a beat for a single company. Therefore the gross number is already coming down relative to the end of the quarter. The numbers are not good so far.

Igy

No, you're the one who is not getting it. You're the only one talking about fantasy estimates. The rest of us are talking about actual reported earnings. Take your fantasy world elsewhere.

Joe,

OK. Kind of funny.

Igy

U.S. stocks were set to fall from record highs on Friday after a terror attack in France left more than 80 people dead, overshadowing better-than-expected growth data from China.

Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 12 points, or 0.1%, to 18,415, while those for the S&P 500 index lost 2.20 points, or 0.1%, to 2,155. Futures for the Nasdaq-100 index dropped 7.25 points, or 0.2%, to 4,582.75.

The dip lower came in the aftermath of Thursday night's killing of at least 84 people in Nice, France, when a truck driver barreled through Bastille Day revelers who were gathered at the Promenade des Anglais in the Riviera city.

French President François Hollande said the scene had "undeniable traits of terrorism," and he extended the country's state of emergency that's been in place since the Paris terrorist attacks in November. The truck driver, believed to be a 31-year old French-Tunisian, was shot dead by the police. No group has claimed responsibility for the attack.

"Better than expected Chinese economic data has driven a continuation of the risk recovery across forex that we have seen in the past few days, whilst gold is still under corrective pressure," said Richard Perry, analyst at Hantec Markets, in a note. "However, following another terrorist attack in France overnight risk appetite is just being held back and there may be a slight shift towards some of the safer haven plays," he added.

Chinese growth data showed the country's gross domestic product grew 6.7% in the second quarter, beating forecasts of a 6.6% reading. The world's second largest economy also expanded at 6.7% in the first quarter.

U.S. stocks on Thursday extended gains, with the S&P 500 index closing at an all-time high for a fourth straight day and the Dow average ending at a record for a third straight session.

[quote]Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Jim Cramer disagrees with Igy, what does that say?

Nothing.

Jim Cramer was pushing Bear Stearns stock right up until it went poof.

Just another shill.

Igy talks about himself in the third person. What does that say?

Baloney wrote:

Igy talks about himself in the third person. What does that say?

Phony Baloney = Detector = try to keep = the world's most obnoxious man.

Though he did have a point.