Down goes the Dow

Econ,

OK, you danced that is all. Some only learn thru experience.

Happy to move on.

Igy

I danced? Now that is laughable coming from the master. Thanks for the chuckle.

U.S. stock futures ticked lower early Thursday as anxieties over Brexit, or Britain's vote to exit the European Union, took a back seat to Friday's key jobs report.

A rise in crude-oil futures helped propel energy companies higher premarket after data showed a drop in crude stockpiles.

Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 22 points, or 0.1%, to 17,812, while those for the S&P 500 index dropped 3.60 points, or 0.2%, 2,090.50. Futures for the Nasdaq-100 index skidded 5.75 points, or 0.1%, to 4,433.75.

The coming employment report is being viewed as a crucial gauge of the health of the economy after last months report showed that the U.S. created just 38,000 jobs in May representing the slowest pace of growth in five years.

Ahead of the nonfarm-payrolls report is private sector report from Automatic Data Processing Inc. due later Thursday.

Wednesday's rise for stocks comes after investors returned from the Independence Day holiday to Brexit-related losses on Tuesday. A stronger-than-expected report on nonmanufacturing activity and dovish Federal Reserve minutes helped nudge investors back into equities on Wednesday. The S&P 500 ended up 0.5%, while Dow industrials rose 0.4%.

"The cautious tone from the [Federal Open Market Committee] minutes on Wednesday may be giving investors a lift today," Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at Oanda, said in a note. "The Brexit vote alone is likely to deter [the Fed] from raising rates until at least the end of the year as they wait to see what the knock-on effects will be, both from an economic and financial markets perspective," he added.

The appetite for assets perceived as risky, like stocks and oil, was broadly reflected in financial markets on Thursday, with European stocks , the pound and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields moving higher.

Oil boost: Oil prices also rose, building on a gain from Wednesday, after data from American Petroleum Institute showed crude supplies fell 6.7 million barrels for the week ended July 1. Analysts had forecast a 2.6 million-barrel decline in stockpiles.

Crude oil jumped on Thursday 1.1% to $47.94 a barrel, while Brent added 1% to $49.28.

Latest purchases from late June: DIS and WBA.

European banks never ending crisis:

http://www.acting-man.com/?p=45737

i's never quite clear on how much HFT affect the market directionally...I suspect they close their books every night, so they sell as much as they buy. Or so I guess. During the day they do drive stocks tho.

Anyway I know nothing about it so I should be quiet.

econ

Lots of very strong labor data. i suspect we are in for some period of rising wages. Need more workers!

job cuts: near lows of 2 years

adp job creation: mid trend and solid

jobless claims 4 week average very low

good job index: highest since 2010

As a casual reader of this thread, the poster Maserati has emerged as having had the most worthwhile observations.

I would like to see a thread that was locked to only Maserati, Ghost of Igloi, agip, big dog investments, la gente..., and a few other posters, with outsiders getting to post questions that those posters would comment on. Even though I find this thread interesting, the trolling and sockpuppeting has become all but intolerable.

Hi, Maserati!

Ceramica wrote:

As a casual reader of this thread, the poster Maserati has emerged as having had the most worthwhile observations.

I am genuinely curious as to what you find worthwhile about his posts. I agree that the others mentioned are worth reading (I'd include coach d), but the Maserati poster doesn't seem to offer much in my opinion.

Thanks in advance for your reply.

I like the fact that he doesn't commit to a particular strategy or philosophy. It is quite apparent that Bulls and Bears are wrong most of the time. Maserati is wise enough to toe the line and not fall in with the great unwashed.

Also, I agree that I should have included coach d with the others.

U.S. stock futures struggled for direction on Friday, with investors striking a cautiously optimistic tone ahead of the top-tier jobs data for June, hoped to show a rebound from May's lackluster report.

Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 36 points, or 0.2%, to 17,854, while those for the S&P 500 index gained 5 points, or 0.2%, to 2,097. Futures for the Nasdaq 100 index slipped 7.50 points, or 0.2%, to 4,459.75.

"Another payroll Friday is upon us, and one which would have been a long awaited event had Brexit not intervened. It's still important, as it was only last month (it seems a lifetime ago) that we saw the shock 38,000 print relative to 160,000 expectations," analysts at Deutsche Bank said in a note.

The nonfarm payrolls report is due at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time, and is expected to show that 170,000 new jobs were added in June, according to economists polled by MarketWatch.

At Deutsche Bank, the estimate, however, was a bit more pessimistic, with a forecast of 155,000. If that number holds true, the three-month average would drop to 105,000 from 116,000 previously and mark a significant downturn compared to 2015's average of 229,000, the bank said. "The big question would be whether this means full employment is approaching and higher wages are round the corner, or whether it reflects companies scaling down hiring as profit margins get squeezed," the Deutsche Bank analysts added.

Average hourly earnings are forecast to have risen 0.2% in June, the same rate as in May. The unemployment rate is seen as inching up to 4.8% from 4.7%.

The Federal Reserve is watching the jobs market closely in determining when to next raise interest rates. Wages are seen as a key measure for the central bank's analysis, as rising salaries could help bring inflation closer to target and thus justify a rate increase. However, after May's disappointing report and the Brexit backlash, expectations for a rate hike have been pushed further out. According to the CME Fed Watch Tool, investors are currently not pricing in a rate hike this year.

UPDATE

U.S. stock futures extended gains on Friday and pointed to a positive day on Wall Street after surprisingly strong jobs report, showing 287,000 jobs created in June.

The jobs gain in June was the biggest increase since last fall and offers reassurance that the economy has rebounded after a soft patch earlier in the year. Economists had been expecting 170,000 new jobs, according to a MarketWatch poll.

The unemployment rate rose to 4.9% from 4.7% as more people entered the labor force in search of work. For more details and analysis, follow the live blog.

Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 95 points, or 0.5%, to 17,914, while those for the S&P 500 index gained 12 points, or 0.6%, to 2,104. Futures for the Nasdaq 100 index rose 19 points, or 0.5%, to 4,470.

Whoah Nellie

Boom

Last post was not mine. I find the ruminations about how political and geographic factors affect things like currencies interesting. I have always been more interested in the medium rather than in the substance, the medium in economics being currency as a definite unit of value. Which is why I didn't include coach d, because he comments mostly about individual companies and sectors, which aren't as interesting to me as gov't and currency, unless the industry is financials, upon which he has rarely if ever discoursed in any interesting detail.

Ceramica wrote:

Last post was not mine. I find the ruminations about how political and geographic factors affect things like currencies interesting. I have always been more interested in the medium rather than in the substance, the medium in economics being currency as a definite unit of value. Which is why I didn't include coach d, because he comments mostly about individual companies and sectors, which aren't as interesting to me as gov't and currency, unless the industry is financials, upon which he has rarely if ever discoursed in any interesting detail.

D is good on currencies , fwiw

So why the F are bonds up today? I have to think rate hikes are back on the table after this jobs report and the lack of blood on the street in europe.

Sometimes I honestly think the world is so bloody prosperous right now that it IS different this time. That these billions and billions of people with money for the first time will change everything, inflating assets for a long while.

(other times I'm cowering under my desk, buying gold)

Maserati wrote:

Hey, I'm really this Ceramica poster.

Fixed.

what happened to that long maserati post?

what devilish business are the mods up to? Is one of the regulars here a mod? Maybe there is mass handle stealing. FFS.

he wrote something about him buying some gold and of course mocking any economic data that might come out. yeah well that's our Maser. Unless it is fake Maser, then it's not our Maser at all.

Anyway, most of the time Igy I agree with what you are saying - all the big central banks are pushing and pushing and pushing money out the door. Then days like this make a little more sense...bonds up, stocks up? weird stuff.

maybe deflation is the big risk here.

agip,

It definitely is the most bizarre market in my 20 years in the business. In 2000 you could look to dividend paying stocks if you wanted to stay clear of technology. In 2007 you could look to high quality bonds as long as they weren't mortgage backed. Today, what is your choice? Gold or short term high quality bonds, managed futures? Of course one can ride coach d's tiger.

Igy

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

agip,

It definitely is the most bizarre market in my 20 years in the business. In 2000 you could look to dividend paying stocks if you wanted to stay clear of technology. In 2007 you could look to high quality bonds as long as they weren't mortgage backed. Today, what is your choice? Gold or short term high quality bonds, managed futures? Of course one can ride coach d's tiger.

Igy

it will be a lot less bizarre if 3Q earnings bounce like they're supposed to

then high PEs will make more sense.