Nuname wrote:
agip wrote:
read Nate Silver's twitter posts on all this. Go back and start in April or so. Then get back to us,
Otherwise, you look like an idiot.
Nate Silver is your expert? He is a creation of media hype.
Why can't you explain how the stats are collected and why a system that produces a daily death series of 5, 3, and 78 is a reliable approach?
I could. but it would make zero difference to your thinking, so I won't.
I like your approach. Florida reported 139 deaths today, we'll see if Georgia drops down at all (hopefully). Back-to-back 1,000 death days would be pretty discouraging.
agip wrote:
Nuname wrote:
Nate Silver is your expert? He is a creation of media hype.
Why can't you explain how the stats are collected and why a system that produces a daily death series of 5, 3, and 78 is a reliable approach?
I could. but it would make zero difference to your thinking, so I won't.
In other words. you can't. Of course I would read and analyze what you say. Why not?
Be honest with yourself.
Nuname wrote:
agip wrote:
I could. but it would make zero difference to your thinking, so I won't.
In other words. you can't. Of course I would read and analyze what you say. Why not?
Be honest with yourself.
hah. Troll.
listen, you could spend 30 minutes reading about this, without me, and if you had any interest in doing so, you would have done so already.
You are just looking for an argument, not actually trying to learn something.
You want to learn something, go google it. Why not? Why haven't you already done that?
agip wrote:
Nuname wrote:
In other words. you can't. Of course I would read and analyze what you say. Why not?
Be honest with yourself.
hah. Troll.
listen, you could spend 30 minutes reading about this, without me, and if you had any interest in doing so, you would have done so already.
You are just looking for an argument, not actually trying to learn something.
You want to learn something, go google it. Why not? Why haven't you already done that?
Just admit that you cannot explain how the stats are collected and why a system that produces a daily death series of 5, 3, and 78 is a reliable approach? Surely you would if you could.
Nuname wrote:
agip wrote:
hah. Troll.
listen, you could spend 30 minutes reading about this, without me, and if you had any interest in doing so, you would have done so already.
You are just looking for an argument, not actually trying to learn something.
You want to learn something, go google it. Why not? Why haven't you already done that?
Just admit that you cannot explain how the stats are collected and why a system that produces a daily death series of 5, 3, and 78 is a reliable approach? Surely you would if you could.
first you tell me why - if you cared - you haven't googled it yourself to find out the answer?
5, 3, and 78
The series is nuts.
You are the one defending these numbers and the methodology, claiming you are familiar with it.
I see them as nuts.
Why is incumbent upon me to prove the numbers and the methodology are solid when I don't believe that to be the case? And how can I possibly prove that you are familiar with the methodology when you refuse to show that you are.
That makes no sense
Nuname wrote:
5, 3, and 78
The series is nuts.
You are the one defending these numbers and the methodology, claiming you are familiar with it.
I see them as nuts.
Why is incumbent upon me to prove the numbers and the methodology are solid when I don't believe that to be the case? And how can I possibly prove that you are familiar with the methodology when you refuse to show that you are.
That makes no sense
bye
Fat hurts wrote:
agip wrote:
I think you misunderstand what is going on.
Sure, government has closed some industries. Not much really at this point.
The problem is that people don't want to go out and get the virus.
Until we get this virus beat the economy will be in the toilet.
We could do that in a month if everyone wears a mask.
Then the vaccine comes in 2021.
I agree with all but the last two sentences.
Masks alone won't beat the virus, even if everyone was diligent about wearing them. Everyone in hospitals wear masks but the virus still spreads to health workers and even to patients in non-covid wings of the hospital.
Masks are very helpful but they are not the whole solution.
Wear a mask
Social distance
Wash your hands
GET TESTD
<Heavy Sigh>
Again...for those looking for that one single magic bullet while dismissing all other solutions.
A fellow was stuck on his rooftop in a flood. He was praying to God for help.
Soon a man in a rowboat came by and the fellow shouted to the man on the roof, "Jump in, I can save you."
The stranded fellow shouted back, "No, it's OK, I'm praying to God and he is going to save me."
So the rowboat went on.
Then a motorboat came by. "The fellow in the motorboat shouted, "Jump in, I can save you."
To this the stranded man said, "No thanks, I'm praying to God and he is going to save me. I have faith."
So the motorboat went on.
Then a helicopter came by and the pilot shouted down, "Grab this rope and I will lift you to safety."
To this the stranded man again replied, "No thanks, I'm praying to God and he is going to save me. I have faith."
So the helicopter reluctantly flew away.
Soon the water rose above the rooftop and the man drowned. He went to Heaven. He finally got his chance to discuss this whole situation with God, at which point he exclaimed, "I had faith in you but you didn't save me, you let me drown. I don't understand why!"
To this God replied, "I sent you a rowboat and a motorboat and a helicopter, what more did you expect?"
By the way, I did try to look it up and got nothing but a bunch of CDC mumbo jumbo.
Death certificates take time to be completed.
States report at different rates.
It takes extra time to code COVID-19 deaths. While 80% of deaths are electronically processed and coded by NCHS within minutes, most deaths from COVID-19 must be coded by a person {now that's a curious one!}
Other reporting systems use different definitions or methods for counting deaths {?? Different definitions for counting deaths!}
None of which explain how we can get a series of deaths like 5, 3, and 78
agip wrote:
Nuname wrote:
5, 3, and 78
The series is nuts.
You are the one defending these numbers and the methodology, claiming you are familiar with it.
I see them as nuts.
Why is incumbent upon me to prove the numbers and the methodology are solid when I don't believe that to be the case? And how can I possibly prove that you are familiar with the methodology when you refuse to show that you are.
That makes no sense
bye
Just admit you made something up to support your side of the argument. Most of us do it
Of the deaths reported yesterday...
10% were attributed to deaths recorded 3 or more weeks ago.
46% were attributed to deaths recorded 10 or more days ago.
38% were attributed to deaths recorded in the previous 4 days.
Wear a mask
Social distance
Wash your hands
GET TESTED
Nuname wrote:
None of which explain how we can get a series of deaths like 5, 3, and 78
Deaths are often counted on the day they are reported, not the day they occurred. There's a clear pattern in the data that shows reports are lower around the weekends and tend to "catch up" with high reports on Tuesday and Wednesday.
That's why it makes sense to look at weekly averages to determine trends rather than day to day changes.
Georgia's 7 day average after yesterday is at 29 vs 22 a week earlier. By itself, that's probably too little to declare a significant upward trend, but the clear upward trend in the infection rate over the past month strongly suggests that death rates will be growing in Georgia over the next few weeks.
[quote]brazen2 wrote:
Of the deaths reported yesterday...
10% were attributed to deaths recorded 3 or more weeks ago.
46% were attributed to deaths recorded 10 or more days ago.
38% were attributed to deaths recorded in the previous 4 days.
Why?
Why would any system counting daily deaths do anything like that?
And why does it add up to 94% of the deaths?
Wear a mask
Social distance
Wash your hands
GET TESTED
https://img.memecdn.com/math-is-hard_o_962622.webpNuname wrote:
brazen2 wrote:
Of the deaths reported yesterday...
10% were attributed to deaths recorded 3 or more weeks ago.
46% were attributed to deaths recorded 10 or more days ago.
38% were attributed to deaths recorded in the previous 4 days.
Why?
Why would any system counting daily deaths do anything like that?
And why does it add up to 94% of the deaths?
TheseKidsUnderstand wrote:
So did the fatality rate just drop by a factor of ten now?
https://www.yahoo.com/news/cdc-antibody-tests-show-virus-163310920.html
What matters is how many people are dying and how many people are suffering from serious, long lasting complications.
As of today, roughly 140,000 people have died in the US from COVID. I understand that the number who may be suffering from serious, long lasting complications is higher than this but I have not seen any exact figures. Without the (reasonably) serious mitigation efforts (SIP) that were in place to varying degrees over the last several months these numbers would be much higher.
Focus on the human impact (see paragraph above) rather than "rates".
Nuname wrote:
Fat hurts wrote:
So this is obviously Giles Corey. He is a nut case, but you do have to give him credit for being nostalgic. He thinks the whole COVID-19 pandemic is a Jewish conspiracy. This is also what people said about the Black Plague.
I try to ignore him but he keeps changing handles.
When you cannot explain how daily death numbers of 5, 3 and 78 make sense, cry anti-Semitism. Works for situation. One whine fits all
Notice he doesn't deny that he thinks the whole COVID-19 pandemic is a Jewish conspiracy.
If you look back earlier in the thread, that's what he (Giles Corey) was pushing.
Please ignore.
Nuname wrote:
By the way, I did try to look it up and got nothing but a bunch of CDC mumbo jumbo.
Death certificates take time to be completed.
States report at different rates.
It takes extra time to code COVID-19 deaths. While 80% of deaths are electronically processed and coded by NCHS within minutes, most deaths from COVID-19 must be coded by a person {now that's a curious one!}
Other reporting systems use different definitions or methods for counting deaths {?? Different definitions for counting deaths!}
None of which explain how we can get a series of deaths like 5, 3, and 78
Deaths: 3,254 (+78 deaths in 24 hours). That’s the largest single-day increase in deaths since 78 deaths were reported on May 21. The state reported 77 deaths on June 9. It’s important to note that these numbers indicate when deaths are reported to the Georgia Department of Public Health. It does not reflect when these deaths occurred.
Nancy Nydam, spokesperson for the Georgia Department of Public Health, said Tuesday’s increase in deaths is partly influenced by delays in reporting. But lags in reporting don’t account for all of the increase.
“It’s two-fold,” she said in an email. “Yes, some of those are because of very low reporting over the weekend and some older ones. However, we’ve seen increased cases and hospitalizations (more serious illness) over the past few weeks so that is leading to increases in deaths.”
Wear a mask
Social distance
Wash your hands
GET TESTED
Current Hospitalizations: 3,155. That’s a decrease of 28 patients in 24 hours. This is the first decrease reported since mid-June.
Wear a mask
Social distance
Wash your hands
GET TESTED
