Trollminator wrote:
😆 🤣 😂
You guys don’t read much, do you? Here, I consolidated the info in one place from your favorite news source:
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04
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WORLDS APART wrote:
Pollsters have recognized that they were inaccurate in 2020 and claim to have taken steps to make their polls more accurate. Although polls will never be perfectly accurate, it is possible that they will be more accurate this year than they were 4 years ago. There's no way to know until after the election. Supposedly, the polls in 2022 were much more accurate, so maybe whatever the pollsters are doing differently is working.
Polls have not always underestimated the Republican support or overestimated the Democratic support. I think it was 2012 when polls very clearly underestimated Obama's support. So even if they are off again this year, who's to say they are not underestimating Harris' support or overestimating Trump's support?
Took a quick look at Trafalgar's polling. This is a Republican funded pollster. In 2020, they had Trump winning PA by 2 points; Biden won by about 2, so they were 4 points off in Trump's favor. Does that meant that their most recent poll in PA, showing Trump up by 2, means that Harris will win by 2? They also had Trump winning AZ, GA, MI and NV in 2020; Biden won all of those states, and Trafalgar's polling was generally off by anywhere from 3-6 points in favor of Trump.
The point being that although many polls were off in 2020 in Biden's favor, not all of them were and some were off in Trump's favor. So I'm not sure you can just assume that the current polls are off in Harris' favor because of 2020.
I think all you can say about the polls right now is that they show a very close race, and a lot can happen to change things between now and Election Day. Certainly, the debate is looking huge, for both candidates.
A smart pollster explained that Polls are not really predictive. Instead they are beneficial to help the campaign spots trends in real time so they can focus their efforts and funds accordingy.
If that is True, the Trends showing in the polls are very bad for Trump.
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Voting matters wrote:
Trollminator wrote:
😆 🤣 😂
You guys don’t read much, do you? Here, I consolidated the info in one place from your favorite news source:
You are correct. Ginamator DOES NOT read much. But he loves looking at pics and listening to The View.
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Trump is giving up so he can golf more and to concentrate on new ways to get his gullible followers to send him money.
Former President Trump is scaling back his campaigning in three states he was targeting just six weeks ago, a sign of how Kamala Harris' rise in the polls has shifted the dynamics of the presidential race.
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New York Times Discovers That Democrats Aren’t Always Truthful (free link):
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WORLDS APART wrote:
agip wrote:
I don't know why people think the polls will be any better this year than in 2016 or 2020.
polls underestimated trump then by 4-6 points and I'm sure they'll do the same again in 2024.
Since harris is only 3 points ahead, seems pretty clear to me that Trump would win if the election were today.
it's a 'change' election and when people get it in their head they want change, that's more important than any policy or rap sheet.
Maybe the debate will change that but I doubt it. Trump is a great salesman. He knows how to close a sale and I'm sure he will do just that at the debate. Sales is what he does.
Pollsters have recognized that they were inaccurate in 2020 and claim to have taken steps to make their polls more accurate. Although polls will never be perfectly accurate, it is possible that they will be more accurate this year than they were 4 years ago. There's no way to know until after the election. Supposedly, the polls in 2022 were much more accurate, so maybe whatever the pollsters are doing differently is working.
Polls have not always underestimated the Republican support or overestimated the Democratic support. I think it was 2012 when polls very clearly underestimated Obama's support. So even if they are off again this year, who's to say they are not underestimating Harris' support or overestimating Trump's support?
Took a quick look at Trafalgar's polling. This is a Republican funded pollster. In 2020, they had Trump winning PA by 2 points; Biden won by about 2, so they were 4 points off in Trump's favor. Does that meant that their most recent poll in PA, showing Trump up by 2, means that Harris will win by 2? They also had Trump winning AZ, GA, MI and NV in 2020; Biden won all of those states, and Trafalgar's polling was generally off by anywhere from 3-6 points in favor of Trump.
The point being that although many polls were off in 2020 in Biden's favor, not all of them were and some were off in Trump's favor. So I'm not sure you can just assume that the current polls are off in Harris' favor because of 2020.
I think all you can say about the polls right now is that they show a very close race, and a lot can happen to change things between now and Election Day. Certainly, the debate is looking huge, for both candidates.
I appreciate what you are saying
but I think you don't focus enough on Trump. He's the wild card here, who inspires a lot of passion. Any polls for elections without Trujmp on the ballot aren't too relevant.
Trump wasn't on the ballot in 2022. So the Rs didn't do much differently than the polls. That one should be disregarded as relevant to 2024.
Trump has been on the ballot twice, 2016 and 2020, and in each he did, I think, 4-6% better than the polls.
Have the polling companies adjusted? Maybe. I hope so.
I don't think we should look at one company, such as trafalgar, to mean anything. Using the polling averages makes a lot of sense. They all seem to be saying it's Harris +3 right now, with key PA at 50/50. Which means probably trump is winning right now. And Harris' momentum has stopped building and has retreated.
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Tea Party Trevorr wrote:
WORLDS APART wrote:
Pollsters have recognized that they were inaccurate in 2020 and claim to have taken steps to make their polls more accurate. Although polls will never be perfectly accurate, it is possible that they will be more accurate this year than they were 4 years ago. There's no way to know until after the election. Supposedly, the polls in 2022 were much more accurate, so maybe whatever the pollsters are doing differently is working.
Polls have not always underestimated the Republican support or overestimated the Democratic support. I think it was 2012 when polls very clearly underestimated Obama's support. So even if they are off again this year, who's to say they are not underestimating Harris' support or overestimating Trump's support?
Took a quick look at Trafalgar's polling. This is a Republican funded pollster. In 2020, they had Trump winning PA by 2 points; Biden won by about 2, so they were 4 points off in Trump's favor. Does that meant that their most recent poll in PA, showing Trump up by 2, means that Harris will win by 2? They also had Trump winning AZ, GA, MI and NV in 2020; Biden won all of those states, and Trafalgar's polling was generally off by anywhere from 3-6 points in favor of Trump.
The point being that although many polls were off in 2020 in Biden's favor, not all of them were and some were off in Trump's favor. So I'm not sure you can just assume that the current polls are off in Harris' favor because of 2020.
I think all you can say about the polls right now is that they show a very close race, and a lot can happen to change things between now and Election Day. Certainly, the debate is looking huge, for both candidates.
A smart pollster explained that Polls are not really predictive. Instead they are beneficial to help the campaign spots trends in real time so they can focus their efforts and funds accordingy.
If that is True, the Trends showing in the polls are very bad for Trump.
Why do you think trends are moving against trump? From what I see the polls show a tightening race after Harris got a bounce before and during the convention.
Got up to Harris +4
now it's
Harris +3
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agip wrote:
And Harris' momentum has stopped building and has retreated.
Or maybe that's simply what the media wants us to think?! Gotta get the clicks for the next 60 days. I expect voter enthusiasm/turnout to be high and that's bad news for Trump.
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National TDIH - Sep 5: '24: Harris +1.9 | '20: Biden +7.0 | '16: Clinton +3.6
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almost boomer wrote:
agip wrote:
And Harris' momentum has stopped building and has retreated.
Or maybe that's simply what the media wants us to think?! Gotta get the clicks for the next 60 days. I expect voter enthusiasm/turnout to be high and that's bad news for Trump.
it's not what the media wants us to think...it's what every single poll aggregator says has happened.
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Ohh Whore wrote:
Trump is giving up so he can golf more and to concentrate on new ways to get his gullible followers to send him money.
Former President Trump is scaling back his campaigning in three states he was targeting just six weeks ago, a sign of how Kamala Harris' rise in the polls has shifted the dynamics of the presidential race.
Is Trump sending down ballot Republicans some of his campaign money like Harris is? You know. Because Trump is very concerned about the success of his fellow Republican candidates.
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Putin's puppet.
It says a lot about how weak and pathetic our enemies perceive Cackles when even Putin is endorsing her.
This post was edited 55 seconds after it was posted.12 -
Putin's puppet.
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Tea Party Trevorr wrote:
Let it Rupp wrote:
How embarrassing! Walz's own family felt the need to publicly endorse his opponents. Even Walz's own brother won't endorse him and claims he's "not the type of character you want making decisions for your future." His own family thinks he sucks, his former unit members think he's a scumbag. Probably not a guy I'd want running the country.Remember this picture that was supposedly Tim Walz immediate family endorsing Trump?
Well, this originated by Benny Johnson (Russian paid, lying troll). And Walz sister said there are a couple very distant cousins and she doesn't even recognize the others.
But no Russian interference right? It's so easy they get treasonous Americans to do their bidding.
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Ghost of Disco Gary wrote:
Putin's puppet.
😆 even Putin couldn't hold it in when he said it. Dude is trolling all of America so hard. If there is one thing trumo has remained consistent on forever is his admiration for Putin. It's unwavering.
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Newname wrote:
Tea Party Trevorr wrote:
We now have a list of right wing podcasters and BS purveyors that are connected to the Federal indictments for being paid to peddle Russian propaganda.
Tim Pool, Tucker Carlson, Benny Johnson, Lauren Southern. Tim Pool out with a statement that he was "deceived" while being paid $400,000 per month to slam Ukraine. Here is a short clip of the guy and notice the similarities to our right wingers slamming Ukraine and pumping Russia. Same talking points.
Anything that challenges the official lies of the govt is called Russian propaganda and the state uses the justice system to shut it down.
No, any content that is fabricated by Russia Today and various Russian-controlled shell companies and then disseminated under fake names (and with lots of $$$$$$$) to American media companies is called Russian propaganda. And even that is legal in America as long as you register as a foreign agent. Have you filed your paperwork?
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Doh!
CNN is calling Cackles a fraud:
#FTLH
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Ghost of Disco Gary wrote:
Doh!
CNN is calling Cackles a fraud:
#FTLH
Charles Ponzi, Bernie Madoff and Charles Keating request that they not be lumped in with Cackles as frauds.
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Jorgon wrote:
Newname wrote:
Anything that challenges the official lies of the govt is called Russian propaganda and the state uses the justice system to shut it down.
No, any content that is fabricated by Russia Today and various Russian-controlled shell companies and then disseminated under fake names (and with lots of $) to American media companies is called Russian propaganda. And even that is legal in America as long as you register as a foreign agent. Have you filed your paperwork?
Who watches RT? What are these Russian controlled Shell companies?
Stop this silliness.
Israel controls America. Not Russia.
This post was edited 9 minutes after it was posted.03 -
Noyankee wrote:
Voting matters wrote:
Yet you make no mention of Kerry’s buddies in Iran trying to influence the election and plotting to assassinate Trump.
Al Qaeda is alive and KICKIN’!! Liberals should be proud and Jewish libs perhaps the most out of touch voting block. Can’t make this stuff up.
Trump negotiated with the Islamic terrorist Taliban (née Al Qaeda). Sat down for tea, crumpets and cucumber sandwiches with them, while American soldiers engaged in combat.
You MAG@ guys used to be against this behavior, Boof. You were against it before you were for it.
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