Karissa Schweizzer Outkicks Shelby Houlihan for 8:25 AMERICAN RECORD as they and Quigley break old American record

Jo72 wrote:

No, as I wrote above Schweizer's 5k in Doha was *much* better than the 8:42 3k and by far her best mark until then. 14:45 with a faster last km in a uneven championship race is worth at least 8:32-34 in 3k. So she ran 7-9 sec. better than one could expect (and than I myself expected, I had Houlihan at 8:28-30 and the other around 8:33-35). This is unquestionably a large improvement. But it is on a similar scale as Houlihan 2017 -> 18, Debues-Stafford 2018 -> 19 and Purrier and Reekie this winter. So it is not that unfrequent and while Reekie is younger, the other three were roughly at 23-24 as well.

I don' t disagree about the quality of Schweizer's run in Doha but it is also part of the same progression that has seen dramatic improvements in her times over the last couple of years. No one suggests her 16 sec improvement in the 3k was overnight. Doha was only 6 or so months ago. The trajectory of her improvements has been spectacular, to say the least. Indeed, at the rate of her improvement, what is to say she hasn't peaked and can go sub-8.20 for the 3k or 14.20 for the 5k? Your arguments allow for that possibility. But so far, no one has offered any real explanation for the stand-out rate of her improvement over the last couple of years, other than to suggest it is somehow to be expected. But other elites don't deem to be doing it.

I would add, I'm not persuaded that the other runners you mention have accomplished the same degree of improvement. Your calculus depends too much on what you consider is the "real" value of Schweizer's previous times than what they actually were. You don't do that with her latest performances.

I daresay you could also run your ruler over other competitors' times and revise them according to what you think they actually worth, in the same way you've done for Schweizer. Everyone gets "better" that way. Fortunately, the record books don't do this and it changes no results - however interesting it is to speculate on what might have been.

I don't really have a dog in this game, I hardly knew who Schweizer was before Doha. And I was myself surprised both by her performances as well as Houlihan in 2018 and Purrier at Millrose and similar cases.

I think there are two aspects here (and both have some relevance for speculations/suspicions I don't want to insinuate any, though), namely "sudden improvements" and apparent large differences between performances in different events. The second point first: Obviously there are different types of runners and while one can perform well from 1500-10000 or with an even wider range, most runners will be comparably better at one distance. The 3k is a special case because it is the distance where real long distance runners meet the middle distance runners (and steeplechasers). Furthermore, it is special beause it used to by the main track distance for women in the 1980s and early 1990s but now that's the 5k. So we have O'Sullivan and other runners from that time with comparably better 3k times (her 8:21.6 would be worth well sub 14:30 but her best was only 14:41) whereas nowadays the 5k or 1500m times are usually better because there are far more opportunities for peak performances over these distances.

Now contrary to the way it usually is, Schweizer got the opportunity for a perfect 3k before she could show her improvement in the shorter or longer distances, let's just wait for summer, if it was an outlier or if she can match it. (Cf. other runners with 3k "better" than other events: E. McColgan: 4:01 8:31 14:46; L. Weightman 4:00 8:26 14:44. As Schweizer is more of a long distance type than Weightman, she might not get to 4:00, but she might run low 14:30s 5k.)

Improvement is expected when people are turning professional. Schweizer had already an 8:41 indoor 3k (and 4:27 mile) in early 2018. So she improved 16 seconds in two years in the 3k. In the 5k she wen from 15:19i in early 2017 to 14:45 in Doha via 15:02 in 2018, 34 secs within more than two years, almost evenly distributed. Her 1500 PB is from 2018, so this obviously does not reflect the improvement, but 3k and 5k are in the same ballpark.

Houlihan 5k: 2016: 15:06 2017 15:00, 2018 14:34 AR 32 secs in two years but to a better mark and at one year older.

Your posts are informative. I was as much surprised by Schweizer's run at Doha as you were. I also noted the accelerated progression of Houlihan that resulted in a an extraordinary performance not that far off the world's best in the 1500. Despite the subject of the thread, identifying a single performance by one runner in particular, dramatic improvements by athletes mid-career or even later seem to becoming more common. The name Mo Farah comes to mind. For the open-minded, its hard to know what to think. For the more cynical, I don't think we can really be sure of what we are seeing in the sport today.

Her astronomical improvement has been since high school where she was a 10 flat 3000 runner in a state that runs the 3000. So if even 1 of the handful of current 9:20 high schoolers improves by 1.5 minutes, we will see a female 7:50 in a few years.

Eilish McColgan was a bad example, her three times fit together quite well.

former Iowa great wrote:

Her astronomical improvement has been since high school where she was a 10 flat 3000 runner in a state that runs the 3000. So if even 1 of the handful of current 9:20 high schoolers improves by 1.5 minutes, we will see a female 7:50 in a few years.

But only the lesser high school runners appear to be capable of that kind of improvement. Perversely, the appearance of early talent seems to limit progress.

One usually does not know how much people train in high school or generally which factors exactly change when people go semi-pro or professional. Usually many focus on shorter distances while younger and there can be huge gains when cranking up mileage and seriously training for 5k instead of focussing on middle distances.

And conversely, some people stop running shorter distances and then their longer distance PBs are of course much better after a few years.

This really does to seem to be true, especially for females. Seidel and Monson were 9:45 type 3000 runners in high school out of Wisconsin. Houlihan and Schweizer were 9:55 types out of Iowa. So find a girl out of that part of the country who is a bit below national class, and you have found a future champion.

Jo72 wrote:

One usually does not know how much people train in high school or generally which factors exactly change when people go semi-pro or professional. Usually many focus on shorter distances while younger and there can be huge gains when cranking up mileage and seriously training for 5k instead of focussing on middle distances.

And conversely, some people stop running shorter distances and then their longer distance PBs are of course much better after a few years.

So what would you say if the 10-flat runner had trained as hard at high school as her 9,20 competitors but, unlike them, still made the 1.5 min improvement?

No, I wouldn't say anything. Only that one should not put too much weight on HS results. Look at the graveyard of teen phenoms. Some would have been crashed, burned and done at 19 if they had trained harder from 16-18.

But the general point is that people can make huge jumps partly because they ran very low mileage as teenagers.

Koko 1500/3k (rounded) from age 16-20 (2013-17), all long pre-NOP. She ran mostly 800m as a young teenager (12-15), focussed on 800/1500 with 16-18 yo and then included longer distances. The improvement is fairly gradual, the 3k has huge leaps.

4:26 9:39

4:20 9:39

4:15 i

4:09 8:53

4:08 i

4:06 8:46

4:04 i

3:58.9 8:29.9

At the risk of going around the mulberry bush, I don't look on HS performances as definitive - as you apparently don't. What I find more interesting are performance "spikes" coming rather later, in an athlete's mid-twenties or even older. Quite apart from Schweizer, who is 23, it happens quite a lot nowadays. I accept you have presented arguments saying her performance jumps in the last couple of years may not be as great as they appear at face value, but they are still impressive. As I said previously, Mo Farah kind of set the standard there. If Schweizer keeps improving, to say sub-4, sub-8.20, and sub-14.30, she will look more and more like him.

Schweizer ran XC and the 1500 and 3000 in HS. She ran for the top program in the state at a large private school so it is not like she did not have the best coaching and facilities.

Here is a video of colleens day leading up to the event.

https://youtu.be/M63V6tTw40s