Aragon, if you want to look at the EPO effects, and understand maybe the effect was overrated, you need to go some year before 1988, when EPO still didn't exist.
For example, on 2nd July 1984 in Stockholm two Portuguese, Fernando Mamede and Carlos Lopes (who leaded all the race till last lap) destroyed the old WR, running 27'13"81 and 27'17"48.
During the European Championships 1978 in Prague, the final result of 10000m, paced for the most part by the Romanian Ilie Floroiu, was as follows :
1) Martti Vainio (Fin) 27'30"99
2) Venanzio Ortis (Ita) 27'31"48
3) Aleksandr Antipov (URSS) 27'31"50
4) Brendan Foster (GB) 27'32"65
5) David Black (GB) 27'36"27
6) Gerard Tebroke (Ned) 27'36"64
7) Ilie Floroiu (Rom) 27'40"06
8) Enn Sellik (URSS - Est) 27'40"61
9) Knut Kvalheim (Nor) 27'41"26
10) Jerzy Kowal (Pol) 27'53"61
And these were ALL Europeans, not like today, when we have in the Championships a lot of African running for Turkey, Spain, Azerbaijan, Belgium, Germany, France and other Countries !
If you want to have a better idea, I give you the 5th and 10th European
from 1972, for 5000, 10000 and steeple :
1972 : 13'22"4 - 13'28"4 // 28'03"8 - 28'14"4 // 8'23"8 - 8'26"0
1973 : 13'28"0 - 13'29"4 // 28'01"0 - 28'15"8 // 8'24"2 - 8'26"2
1974 : 13'23"93 - 13'25"78 // 28'14"80 - 28'18"37 // 8'19"73 - 8'25"80
1975 : 13'27"00 - 13'29"8 // 27'53"63 - 28'04"45 // 8'17"64 - 8'23"20
1976 : 13'18"0 - 13'21"2 // 27'54"43 - 27'58"81 // 8'15"32 - 8'21"00
1977 : 13’21â€18 - 13’23â€61 // 27’42â€65 - 27’55â€50 // 8’25â€57 - 8’27â€55
1978 : 13'20"82 - 13'24"10 // 27'36"27 - 27'48"4 // 8'19"5 - 8'24"86
1979 : 13'19"87 - 13'23"2 // 27'41"89 - 27'52"88 // 8'23"0 - 8'25"83
1980 : 13'20"99 - 13'22"00 // 27'48"7 - 28'00"64 // 8'18"47 - 8'23"5
1981 : 13'19"13 - 13'21"14 // 27'45"50 - 27'55"06 // 8'21"72 - 8'24"75
1982 : 13'12"78 - 13'17"80 // 27'34"58 - 27'55"77 // 8'19"72 - 8'21"4
1983 : 13'19"38 - 13'21"3 // 27'37"59 - 27'55"8 // 8'16"59 - 8'19"64
1984 ; 13'16"02 - 13'18"46 // 27'47"54 - 28'01"3 // 8'16"25 - 8'20"16
1985 ; 13'18"47 - 13'20"93 // 27'50"30 - 28'02"92 // 8'13"77 - 8'19"38
1986 : 13'15"01 - 13'17"71 // 27'44"57 - 27'52"48 // 8'16"92 - 8'19"44
1987 : 13'14"60 - 13'21"44 // 27'47"05 - 28'05"59 // 8'17"69 - 8'20"70
1988 : 13'16"1 - 13'19"16 // 27'39"36 - 27'52"27 // 8'16"01 - 8'19"15
1989 : 13'17"82 - 13'20"91 // 27'49"74 - 27'54"67 // 8'17"64 - 8'21"21
1990 : 13'17"71 - 13'23"36 // 27'41"30 - 27'58"74 // 8'16"31 - 8'20"98
1991 : 13'17"79 - 13'21"90 // 27'53"00 - 27'58"42 // 8'19"33 - 8'23"74
1992 : 13'10"47 - 13'18"91 // 27'48"57 - 27'56"74 // 8'20"32 - 8'25"50
1993 : 13'16"48 - 13'19"78 // 27'42"35 - 27'59"72 // 8'21"24 - 8'24"92
1994 : 13'17"33 - 13'22"40 // 27'55"0 - 27'57"87 // 8'22"20 - 8'25"33
1995 : 13'13"77 - 13'17"46 // 27'51"64 - 28'06"18 // 8'18"26 - 8'22"33
1996 : 13'18"60 - 13'23"43 // 27'49"17 - 27'59"72 // 8'20"95 - 8'22"84
1997 : 13'13"27 - 13'18"41 // 27'41"94 - 28'02"94 // 8'19"16 - 8'24"09
1998 : 13'04"64 - 13'15"67 // 27'34"05 - 27'49"46 // 8'18"30 - 8'20"51
1999 : 13'08"13 - 13'22"48 // 27'46"12 - 27'51"82 // 8'12"24 - 8'16"50
2000 : 13'09"64 - 13'15"75 // 27'45"75 - 27'56"30 // 8'14"53 - 8'19"43
2001 : 13'09"63 - 13'18"20 // 28'01"94 - 28'18"38 // 8'16"00 - 8'21"66
2002 : 13'10"90 - 13'17"04 // 27'44"05 - 27'51"01 // 8'15"02 - 8'20"91
2003 : 13'19"22 - 13'23"24 // 28'05"27 - 28'15"66 // 8'13"86 - 8'17"72
2004 : 13'15"28 - 13'17"59 // 28'11"27 - 28'27"02 // 8'15"77 - 8'18"53
2005 : 13'12"36 - 13'25"68 // 28'14"90 - 28'30"80 // 8'14"05 - 8'17"32
2006 : 13'11"13 - 13'24"28 // 28'11"04 - 28'20"43 // 8'14"67 - 8'18"90
2007 : 13’25â€37 - 13’32â€08 // 28’17â€87 - 28’28â€04 // 8’15â€38 - 8’21â€33
2008 : 13’15â€72 - 13’22â€68 // 27’44â€54 – 28’05â€37 // 8’14â€74 - 8’21â€16
2009 : 13’14â€19 - 13’24â€24 // 27’58â€48 - 28’19â€39 // 8’18â€44 - 8’24â€22
2010 : 13’19â€21 - 13’24â€38 // 28’12â€83 - 28’25â€22 // 8’21â€27 - 8’24â€04
2011 : 13’19â€93 - 13’26â€59 // 27’53â€55 - 28’25â€29 // 8’15â€47 - 8’19â€00
2012 : 13’15â€21 - 13’21â€12 // 28’04â€22 - 28’18â€50 // 8’18â€03 - 8’22â€62
2013 : 13’17â€42 - 13’27â€08 // 28’06â€74 - 28’31â€82 // 8’19â€64 - 8’24â€62
2014 : 13’22â€27 - 13’30â€41 // 28’02â€79 - 28’11â€11 // 8’20â€29 - 8’25â€38
2015 : 13’11â€77 - 13’22â€92 // 27’47â€55 - 28’22â€01 // 8’21â€59 – 8’22â€49
Analyzing the event of 5000m, we can see how, about the top 5 in Europe, the average was 14 times under 13’15†(during the full period of 44 years), with this classification for the best 10 years :
1) 1998 (13’04â€64)
2) 1999 (13’08â€13)
3) 2001 (13’09â€63)
4) 2000 (13’09â€64)
5) 1992 (13’10â€47)
6) 2002 (13’10â€90)
7) 2006 (13’11â€13)
8) 2015 (13’11â€77)
9) 2005 (13’12â€36)
10) 1992 (13’12â€78)
If we want to see the best 10th, the classification for the best 10 years is the following (13 years under 13’20â€) :
1) 1998 (13’15â€67)
2) 2000 (13’15â€75)
3) 2002 (13’17â€04)
4) 1995 (13’17â€46)
5) 2004 (13’17â€59)
6) 1986 (13’17â€71)
7) 1982 (13’17â€80)
8) 2001 (13’18â€20)
9) 1997 (13’18â€41)
10) 1984 (13’18â€46)
Now, we have to analyze the worst 10 years for the best 5 (9 times over 13’20â€) :
1) 1973 (13’28â€0)
2) 1975 (13’27â€00)
3) 2007 (13’25â€37)
4) 1974 (13’23â€93)
5) 1972 (13’22â€4)
6) 2014 (13’22â€27)
7) 1977 (13’21â€18)
8) 1980 (13’20â€99)
9) 1978 (13’20â€99)
10) 2011 (13’19â€93)
At the level of top 10, this is the classification of the worst years (12 times slower than 13’24â€) :
1) 2007 (13’32â€08)
2) 2014 (13’30â€41)
3) 1975 (13’29â€8)
4) 1973 (13’29â€4)
5) 1972 (13’28â€4)
6) 2013 (13’27â€08)
7) 2011 (13’26â€59
8) 1974 (13’25â€78)
9) 2005 (13’25â€68)
10) 2010 (13’24â€38)
Now, we go to analyze the trend of 10000m. About this event, we must consider that, during the last years, it practically disappeared from the main meetings, so the opportunities for running fast decreased in a dramatic way.
The best 10 years, at the level of top 5, are (13 times under 27’45â€) :
1) 1998 (27’34â€05)
2) 1982 (27’34â€58)
3) 1978 (27’36â€27)
4) 1983 (27’37â€59)
5) 1988 (27’39â€36)
6) 1990 (27’41â€30)
7) 1979 (27’41â€89)
8) 1997 (27’41â€94)
9) 1993 (27’42â€35)
10) 1977 (27’42â€65)
This is the level of the best 10 (for 20 years better than 28’) :
1) 1978 (27’48â€4)
2) 1998 (27’49â€46)
3) 2002 (27’51â€01)
4) 1999 (27’51â€82)
5) 1988 (27’52â€27)
6) 1986 (27’52â€48)
7) 1979 (27’52â€88)
8) 1989 (27’54â€67)
9) 1981 (27’55â€06)
10) 1977 (27’55â€50)
Now, we go to see the worst seasons, at the level of top 5 (13 times slower than 28’) .
1) 2007 (28’17â€87)
2) 2005 (28’14â€90)
3) 1974 (28’14â€80)
4) 2010 (28’12â€83)
5) 2004 (28’11â€27)
6) 2006 (28’11â€04)
7) 2013 (28’06â€74)
8) 2003 (28’05â€27)
9) 2012 (28’04â€22)
10) 1972 (28’03â€8)
At the level of top 10, this is the situation (16 times slower than 28’10â€) :
1) 2013 (28’31â€82)
2) 2005 (28’30â€80)
3) 2007 (28’28’04â€)
4) 2004 (28’27â€02)
5) 2011 (28’25â€29)
6) 2010 (28’25â€22)
7) 2015 (28’22â€01)
8) 2006 (28’20â€43)
9) 2009 (28’19â€39)
10) 2012 (28’18â€50)
We have still to analyze the trend of steeple. These are the best seasons for the top 5 (13 times under 8’16â€) :
1) 1999 (8’12â€24)
2) 1985 (8’13â€77)
3) 2003 (8’13â€86)
4) 2005 (8’14â€05)
5) 2000 (8’14â€53)
6) 2006 (8’14â€67)
7) 2008 (8’14â€74)
8) 2002 (8’15â€02)
9) 1976 (8’15â€32)
10) 2007 (8’15â€38)
This is the classification at the level of top 10 (11 times under 8’20â€) :
1) 1999 (8’16â€50)
2) 2005 (8’17â€32)
3) 2003 (8’17â€72)
4) 2004 (8’18â€53)
5) 2006 (8’18â€90)
6) 2011 (8’19â€00)
7) 1988 (8’19â€15)
8) 1985 (8’19â€38)
9) 2000 (8’19â€43)
10) 1986 (8’19â€44)
Now we go to see the worst seasons at the level of top 5 (12 times slower than 8’20â€) :
1) 1977 (8’25â€57)
2) 1973 (8’24â€2)
3) 1972 (8’23â€8)
4) 1979 (8’23â€0)
5) 1994 (8’22â€20)
6) 1981 (8’21â€72)
7) 2015 (8’21â€59)
8) 2010 (8’21â€27)
9) 1993 (8’21â€24)
10) 1996 (8’20â€95)
And finally we can see the worst at the level of top 10
1) 1977 (8’27â€55)
2) 1973 (8’26â€2)
3) 1972 (8’26â€0)
4) 1979 (8’25â€83)
5) 1974 (8’25â€80)
6) 1992 (8’25â€50)
7) 2014 (8’25â€38)
8) 1994 (8’25â€33)
9) 1993 (8’24â€92)
10) 1978 (8’24â€86)
I think it’s not possible to find any relation with doping looking at these data, apart the period of 3 years immediately before the direct detection of EPO (1998-2000).
What it’s clear, is that the European activity lost, in the last 10 years, motivation and stimuli, for the continue increase of the number of African runners in all the events.
Since the most important meetings of DL are in Europe, after 2009 the organizers preferred to build top competitions in sprint events, also for the presence of Usain Bolt, who is the most attractive athlete in the World, and long distances lost interest, and the opportunities for running fast times drastically decreased.
About European athletes, we need also to understand they depended, for their performances, on the level of the big competitions. For example, at the level of top 5 in steeple we can see the best seasons were when there were continue attempts of WR, with Moses Kiptanui before, with Shaheen later, and in so fast competitions also the best European (only few had the possibility to compete) could improve their PB.
To reduce everything to the idea of “how doping worked†for every period is completely wrong.
We need to know the history of athletics, because not always there are top talents, and when there are optimal conditions for competing all the athletes in the race can have advantages.
It’s also interesting to see how the “Bekele era†was not the best for European athletes. Can we suppose they didn’t dope and Bekele doped, or simply nobody used doping (apart few athletes positive, like Mourhit), or, still, the effects of EPO are not so strong to change the situation for athletes of medium level?
These are interesting points, since we can’t divide during the same periods the activity of African runners (according some people “dopedâ€, otherwise they could not run so fast) from the activity of European (absolutely clean, because, if they are doped, how it’s possible they are so slower than African ?).
Performances come from a mix of talent, motivation, proper training and perfect conditions. To reduce everything at the best doping, it’s not only wrong, but clearly very sad and unfair.