Rupp, Derrick, Ritz or True – Which One Goes Home Devastated?

Well, most of what I said the other day still applies, but, obviously, the weather's not looking too conducive.

When I first checked the other day, I saw 73 and 53 humidity. I thought that might not be enough to affect the race too badly.

Now, it's 79 and 70, 14 mph of gusty wind. Not good.

Maybe not enough to completely wreck the race, but obviously enough to have some real impact.

Nobody's running 27 in that, and I doubt anyone outside Rupp will break 27:40.

Ritzie still needs a (relatively) fast, hard race, but he certainly won't be pushing it at 13:30 in those conditions.

Maybe a moderate first half, and a gradual cranking up in the second half, is the more likely scenario.

Say, 14-ish at 5K, with Ritz and Rupp dropping it to 65's at 6 or 7K.

If we're lucky, none of the big 4 are too badly rattled by the heat, and that scenario could still give us something like the spectacular 3-man death march I envisioned over the last couple K, but who knows?

Obviously, the rougher conditions should increase the chance that at least one of the guys blows up, which would probably greatly diminish the drama.

Who might that be?

High dew point and a nasty pollen count clearly may not serve Rupp too well, so maybe it increases the chance that he gets dragged back to the pack, and we possibly end up with a 4-man death march.

That would be pretty wild.

If we're really lucky, a heavy storm flashes through at 8'o'clock, and knocks the temp down by 10 degrees before clearing out.

If the forecast holds, I'll adjust my earlier expectations a little.

Slow the first half down to 13:56, and Rupp and Ritz start to push at 6K or so.

Chris and True hang with them, whoever else is left gets slowly dropped by 8K or so.

Death march ensues.

The four of them hold together to the last 800.

Rupp goes hard. The other three try to hang on for dear life.

Much agony is experienced by all.

Ritz, to the shock of the LR crowd, holds it together a little better than the other two.

Rupp (en Masque?) struggles through in 27:34.

It does *not* look easy.

Ritzie follows, triumphantly, in 27:39.

Derrick and True put forth a horrific battle of self-immolation... and I don't have a clue who comes out on top.

Flip a freaking coin.

I can't see a nickel's worth of separation between these two right now.

I have no idea who might handle the heat better.

All I get is that they both look like absolute warriors.

I just hope neither one gives himself a heart attack or heat stroke in the process.

To quote the great Mr. T: "My prediction?.... PAIN."

Still think it should be a fantastic race.

Still think it's highly unlikely that anyone outside the Big 4 plays a major role.

Just somewhat less predictable than before.

Best of luck to four great guys, and great competitors, and my deepest sympathy to the odd man out.

(I really wish we could send four this year.)

Enjoy it, everyone.

The Mask of Portlandtillado wrote:

You are probably the best troll on this site. You make claims that are ridiculous, but with just enough aggressive faux-intellectualism to make people feel obliged to argue with you.

You know, I know, everyone knows that Galen Rupp is the best 10k runner in the world right now, and that nobody is going to come close to challenging him tonight. He could whip it out and helicopter the whole race and still win by 30 seconds if he wanted.

This ^ is correct (except for the "best 10k runner in the world" part). At the end of the day Rupp is clearly a lock. Anyone arguing otherwise is either a troll or remarkably ignorant of the sport.

But that is one deeply disturbing image you set out there.

Forgot one thing: If Teg really is running, and really is in pretty good fitness... I'm guessing it still won't make much difference.

Maybe he hangs till 8K, and gives us a FIVE-man death march for a while, but I doubt he can crack the top 4.

Might add a little extra intrigue, so, what the hell.

I think Ritz surprises. I had mentioned prior to Pre that I thought he could be first American. I was so close with that prediction. He looked like he was going to do it until the end there.

Similarly, I think people are going to be very very surprised by Ritz tonight. Calling for a Ritz "W" on the back of him probably being no less than 15 sec worse than Rupp, and Rupp having an off day due to weather. Definitely not going to be more than 5 seconds back from the win. Rupp will struggle a bit with the weather, but is certainly as close to a lock as their is in mid-d and distance running.

It will come down to True/Derrick for the 3rd spot.

I wrote what's below on another thread. I wrote it when it appeared that the weather would be better, but I stick to it even now. I think Ritz will win it, but surely be right there for second behind Rupp at worst. It's worth noting, especially with Teg now in the race for real, that there is a genuine dislike between Salazar and Schumacher, and thus a desire on the part of each to have his runners best those of the other. Salazar would like nothing better than to have both Rupp and Ritz make the team ahead of Derrick and Teg, and vice-versa. Add Puskedra to the mix as someone who might help carry the early pace, and add the fact that with the hotter conditions we might have a sharply fluctuating pace, with surges here and there, and the race promises to be extremely exciting.Thanks for the kind words, and I realize I'm probably the only semi-sane person who posts here who genuinely thinks that Ritz will win. However, had I suggested that Ritz had a good chance to beat Rupp at Pre, no one would have taken that particularly seriously. But if one looks at the last 800 of that race and sees that Ritz made two tactical mistakes that surely cost him a decent amount of energy, one will realize that Ritz could have beaten him. As it is, he lost by only .84. That's pretty striking. I think Ritz's 13:09 in that race shows that he is approaching sub 13 once again. The last time he was there was 2009, his last healthy track season, when he dominated Rupp in Berlin (a warm weather race, where Ritz came in sixth and beat four sub 27 guys) and broke the American record in the 5, in what is still a faster PR than Rupp. When Ritz ran that, Salazar and Ritz both thought he was in sub 27 shape. Ritz was great on the track in 2009 and he's only now approaching that form after four long years. Yes, he has older legs, but yes, he has been hurt so much, they might not be beaten up as much as someone who remained healthy. Ritz's problem is that although he can close a 5 in 3:00-01, he doesn't seem to be able to close faster than 58. I'm thinking the 10 in Des Moines is going to be a strange race and that at some point outside of 1k, Ritz is going to get away. In any case, he makes the team. Sagarin wrote:

Read more:

Teg is back in the lineup. I'll presume that means he believes he's got a shot at the team. Given his track record for making teams, making this one just got even tougher for everybody.

Rupp, Ritz, Derrick, True and Teg. Pretty certain there's never been a Nats that's anywhere near as fast through five (including their 5,000 PRs) as this one is.

Fasten your seatbelts, boys. It's gonna be a bumpy ride.

Flounder's remark at the end of "Animal House" comes to mind: "Oh boy, is this great." I hope I'm saying that tonight at around 9:20.Incidentally, the wind tonight will not be light, but it's coming from the SSE, which is from the best wind protected part of Drake Stadium, so I don't think it will be an issue.

Zat0pek wrote:

Teg is back in the lineup. I'll presume that means he believes he's got a shot at the team. Given his track record for making teams, making this one just got even tougher for everybody.

Rupp, Ritz, Derrick, True and Teg. Pretty certain there's never been a Nats that's anywhere near as fast through five (including their 5,000 PRs) as this one is.

Fasten your seatbelts, boys. It's gonna be a bumpy ride.

I'm rooting for Derrick to make it over Ritz and True. He definitely has the most potential to be our best chance for a 10k medal after Rupp in the next Olympics, and this WC experience would be invaluable.

I like Ritz and True, but there's no way they have a shot at 10k medals.

Given Rupp's amazing 3:50 and 7:30 mile and 3000 performances indoors, I really hope he gets after at least the 5000 AR in Europe before the championships. He should be good for 12:4x. Maybe one more 10K after the championships.

Right. Derrick has a shot, but Ritz and True have NONE.

Because, umm, they've all got essentially identical performances so far this year.

Figures we had to get at least one more idiotic comment into the thread before race-time.

Rupp, Derrick, Teg

sp23 wrote:

Right. Derrick has a shot, but Ritz and True have NONE.

Figures we had to get at least one more idiotic comment into the thread before race-time.

Yes, your comments was the most idiotic. Ritz and True have shots as good as Rupp. As already stated, the weather affects Rupp the most (heat & pollen).

"He could whip it out and helicopter the whole race and still win by 30 seconds if he wanted.'

this really needed to be repeated...

Oh and Ritz second

Figures we had two.... wrote:

sp23 wrote:

Right. Derrick has a shot, but Ritz and True have NONE.

Figures we had to get at least one more idiotic comment into the thread before race-time.

Yes, your comments was the most idiotic. Ritz and True have shots as good as Rupp. As already stated, the weather affects Rupp the most (heat & pollen).

I guess the obvious sarcasm was lost on you.

Yes, any reasonable observer would figure all three of them have fairly close to equal shots.

The idea that Derrick has a good chance, and the other two have NONE, was ridiculous.

That was the point.

Ritz has been 6th in the World Championsips. Before he had that sub 13 confidence. He ran sub 13 the race after that.

Teg has been 4th and 8th at World Champs in the 5k. Has not done well in the 10k.

Derrick was top 10 at World Cross and ran really well against international competition at Pre. He's arguably as good as Cam Levins who was 11th in the Olympics.

True was 6th at World Cross in a race Imane Merga finished 2nd and Mehdin (7th in Olympic 10k) finished 3rd. True was 2 seconds back from the 4th place finisher.

All of those guys are capable of a top 10 finish in the 10k at Moscow. Derrick is the youngest and needs the experience. True is the next youngest (age 27) and has performed well in his limited international experience. Ritz is capable of getting top 5. Teg is past his prime and in the wrong event.

sp23 wrote: I guess the obvious sarcasm was lost on you.

obvious sarcasm, ummm, no. obvious trolling by you, ummm, yes. ergo, the response you got, brother.

Figures we had two.... wrote:

sp23 wrote: I guess the obvious sarcasm was lost on you.

obvious sarcasm, ummm, no. obvious trolling by you, ummm, yes. ergo, the response you got, brother.

Holy Christ, are you seriously that stupid?

No more time for morons today.

Bye-bye.

Three times is the trick.

Yo Momma wrote:

"He could whip it out and helicopter the whole race and still win by 30 seconds if he wanted.'

this really needed to be repeated...

Oh and Ritz second

sp23 wrote:

No more time for morons today.

Bye-bye.

1/10

Good to know the moron (you = troll) is leaving.

Rupp, Derrick, Teg. No reason for Teg to be running if he's not in the mix. He hasn't missed out on Worlds since 2005. He's going.