Could anyone run a 5 minute mile?

SREW YOU. That is so not true. Maybe your view is skewed by the fact that the only people you have seen attempt it are people who have come out for track, but there are plenty of people not interested in distance running whatsoever that could never break 6 or even 7. That's believable for me. If I trained for it I could probably run a 4:30 by next year. I am at 4:46 rn.

You can't use an anecdote to make generalizations about the entire population. If you pulled 30 12-year olds out of a junior high and told them to run a mile after 4 months of training, most of them wouldn't run 5:38. Also, there is a world of difference between 5:38 and 4:5x

I broke 5 after I hit the 6 ft mark

BFJ wrote:

What is the acceptable limit to the human potential in running? I believe that anyone who cared to, could train to run a mile in under 5 minutes. I honestly think that if everyone actually tried their hardest from a young enough age, that anyone is capable of a 4:30 (or so) mile time.

your thoughts?

Here is the proper framing: if you sample the entire world population of:

1) males

2) between 18 and 39

3) remove the bottom 5% (least gifted)

4) remove the top 5% (most gifted)

5) train them close to optimally for ~ 1 year

The AVERAGE mile time you would get is:

somewhere between 5:45 and 6:15.

I think that about 20% will break 5, and 20% will not break 7. A lot of that sampled population (60%) will hover between a best mile time of 5:30 to 6:30 with many of them between 5:45 and 6:15.

Would anyone agree?

IKnowTheAnswer wrote:

BFJ wrote:

What is the acceptable limit to the human potential in running? I believe that anyone who cared to, could train to run a mile in under 5 minutes. I honestly think that if everyone actually tried their hardest from a young enough age, that anyone is capable of a 4:30 (or so) mile time.

your thoughts?

Here is the proper framing: if you sample the entire world population of:

1) males

2) between 18 and 39

3) remove the bottom 5% (least gifted)

4) remove the top 5% (most gifted)

5) train them close to optimally for ~ 1 year

The AVERAGE mile time you would get is:

somewhere between 5:45 and 6:15.

I think that about 20% will break 5, and 20% will not break 7. A lot of that sampled population (60%) will hover between a best mile time of 5:30 to 6:30 with many of them between 5:45 and 6:15.

Would anyone agree?

I downloaded about 12000 1600M results for high school seniors in several US states from Atletics.net for the 2015 outdoor season. The mean time is 5:04.4, standard deviation = 32 sec.

That's about a 5:06 mile. 1 std Dev above mean is 4:34. This is for 18 yo boys who are kinda good at running after probably 2 -3 years of training. I expect for the general population the mean is much slower than 5:06.

With the right promotion/advertisement, it may be possible to organize a "The NFL/MLS runs a mile" event, where all these professionals race a mile at their training camps and report back: money is raised for a good cause, it's used as promotion of good health habits, heck, get the FLOTUS involved.

I'd place a bet that among this particular group of not normal trained males, not 2% will run under 5 mins. Without any research, I'd be willing to give 4:1 odds. How much action can I get on this?

subfive wrote:

IKnowTheAnswer wrote:

Here is the proper framing: if you sample the entire world population of:

1) males

2) between 18 and 39

3) remove the bottom 5% (least gifted)

4) remove the top 5% (most gifted)

5) train them close to optimally for ~ 1 year

The AVERAGE mile time you would get is:

somewhere between 5:45 and 6:15.

I think that about 20% will break 5, and 20% will not break 7. A lot of that sampled population (60%) will hover between a best mile time of 5:30 to 6:30 with many of them between 5:45 and 6:15.

Would anyone agree?

I downloaded about 12000 1600M results for high school seniors in several US states from Atletics.net for the 2015 outdoor season. The mean time is 5:04.4, standard deviation = 32 sec.

That's about a 5:06 mile. 1 std Dev above mean is 4:34. This is for 18 yo boys who are kinda good at running after probably 2 -3 years of training. I expect for the general population the mean is much slower than 5:06.

Thanks. Your sample probably support my thesis. Using my "average" man sample I'd expect 1-2 sd above your mean, so roughly 5:30 to 6:00. And probably closer to 6 than 5:30.

Did anyone watch Somm? The documentary about the Master Sommelier exam, which at the time maybe 7 (or 50 or who cares) people had ever passed?

Good movie. But those people had no talent for anything (except the baseball player), and were more or less a bunch of idiots. But they were people who got obsessed with accomplishing a thing, which is a huge pain in the ass, and for which there isn't that big a reward.

Sounds a lot like a 5 minute mile. Maybe all it takes is obsession.

And btw most of these other posts are terrible. Exception: runnergirl79, and some others.

oldhalfmileguy wrote:

funny you should mention that

My schools basketball coach wanted his team to be in the best shape. EVERYONE had to run a sub 5 minute mile before they could be on the team. Funny to see these big guys with basketball shoes run. Most made it in the first attempt. They all made it by the third try. a 6 ft 5 fwd/center had the fastest time 4 39.

I think you have a poor memory for times

I am not sure if I agree. I do agree that if trained properly a fairly large segment could run 5 minutes, but by no means everyone. There are some genetic and physical predispositions in a lot of people that would work counter to being able to sustain a 75 second 400 pace for 4 consecutive laps. Also there are some that could probably never break 25 seconds in a 200 meter dash, probably roughly the sprinting equivalent to a 5 min. Mile.

Love these pointless old troll threads.

I think every human should be able to run a sub 3:00 mile. If you can't you're worthless protoplasm and don't train enough.

Why stick to something jokingly easy like 5min? You should easily be at 1.5miles at that point.

ukathleticscoach wrote:

oldhalfmileguy wrote:

funny you should mention that

My schools basketball coach wanted his team to be in the best shape. EVERYONE had to run a sub 5 minute mile before they could be on the team. Funny to see these big guys with basketball shoes run. Most made it in the first attempt. They all made it by the third try. a 6 ft 5 fwd/center had the fastest time 4 39.

I think you have a poor memory for times

Either that or his coach had them run what he thought was a mile, but was considerably less.

Ummm.... First at state last year was 4:35.......

Most people would probably get to within 20 seconds of lifetime pr on 30-35 miles of decent not great training per week. So, imagine applying that to the people you went to HS with, 35 miles a week of decent training. It's much easier than imagining them being perfect from youth and running 100miles in their prime a week under a professional coach.

Not a very high percentage of boys would break 6 minutes, maybe 20%. Maybe 5% would break 5:30 and a few break 5.

I'm calling BS on the basketball thing as well it's either greatly exaggerated or just a complete lie.

No to 20%. A co-ed public high school with 1500 students. About nine members of the track & field team will be capable of sub-5 1600/one mile. There will be a few others at the high school who can: XC runners who do not participate in t&f, a few soccer players, a few hockey players, a few basketball players and maybe a couple of football corner backs and a couple of wide receivers. Twenty-five boys at most in a high school can race a sub-5. There will be one girl every thirty years at a high school capable of a sub-5 1600/mile. Someone in their twenties, less than a half of one percent will be able to race sub-5 for their first time. I am not talking about sub-4:15 runners who have taken a few years off.

A lot of people here that deny that anyone can run a 5 minute mile point out that a lot of people are overweight. However anyone can loose weight and get in the right shape with certain training. I'm not sure about a 5 minute mile but I would definitely say that any able-bodied male in the world could run a 6 minute mile with a certain amount of training.

bkkn dfsfdn wrote:

Not everyone. A large portion of the population just doesn't have the body structure. Do you think the guys who are 6'8 and 250 pounds could train to run a 4:30 mile? No way.

With the right PEDs anything is possible.

I have a 6'6" Serbian friend who played Division 1 basketball at Lasalle about 10-15 years ago. He mentioned that the team had to mile time trials. The target time was either 530 or 6:00 mile, and he said he tried like hell and I don't know if he ever could make the time