Who is more talented? German Fernandez or Dathan Ritzenhein?

The IAAF scoring table is interesting (http://www.iaaf.org/mm/Document/Competitions/TechnicalArea/ScoringOutdoor2008_742.pdf). The higher the number, the higher the difficulty. In that context, my predictions look quite reasonable. I think Ritz has a chance to go sub 2:05, considering that Hall has already run 2:06, who has less speed than Ritz. He has at least another good dozen marathons in him -- only one has to be that fast. In German's case, the 1500 is the most highly rated time. That's why I think my 5000 and 10000 predictions are conservative. 1259 points would be a 12:46.79 5000 and 26:39.94 10000.

Ritz

1133 - 1500 3:38

1224 - 5000 12:56.27

1233 - 10000 26:56

1280 - Mar 2:04:50

Fernandez

1259 - 1500 3:29

1254 - 5000 12:48

1249 - 10000 26:46

History tells us that nobody will remember either name 10 years from today unless they happen to win a Summer Olympic medal, IAAF Outdoor WC medal, or New York, Fukuoka, Berlin, London, Chicago, maybe Tokyo.

In terms of, say, Bob Kennedy, "nobody" would be the entire Lets Run community.

But yes, to those who do not follow running, those events are the highest profile. And that's why I wish both Ritz and Fernandez the best of luck in getting those medals.

Add Boston

coach bigfoot wrote:

Look like the mcmillan calculator indicates that

It also says that based on his 5k Ritz can run a 3:44 mile. As someone mentioned those calculators are speed biased.

a;lsfj wrote:

Different forms of talent. Fernandez has more speed but can't do the kind of training that Ritz can in order to excel in xc and longer distances.

Yet.

About these calculators....

What are they really telling us?

1) Times that will earn you the same podium place in other distances

or

2) Equivalent physical exertions

These are significantly different things.

All of these calculators are bogus. its no more accurate than somebody's opinion.

Ritz wins in everything but track talent wise, German picks up the slack in track.

Better overall talent=Ritz

haha, YO wrote:

It also says that based on his 5k Ritz can run a 3:44 mile. As someone mentioned those calculators are speed biased.

The purpose of the IAAF calculator is to say what the comparable performances are. Ritz's 5000 is supposed to be equivalent to 3:48.33. That doesn't mean he should be able to run that if he trained for it. It just awards the same number of points to that time as comparable difficulty.

haha, YO wrote:

It also says that based on his 5k Ritz can run a 3:44 mile. As someone mentioned those calculators are speed biased.

The purpose of the IAAF calculator is to say what the comparable performances are. Ritz's 5000 is supposed to be equivalent to 3:48.33. That doesn't mean he should be able to run that if he trained for it. It just awards the same number of points to that time as comparable difficulty.

Both young men are hard workers. German reminds me of other Mexican runners like Jorge, Al Sal, Rudy, etc. Ritz reminds me of other Anglo-White runners like Virgin, Rupp, Rham Som, etc.

This was posted earlier (once by myself) but I thought it was worth mentioning that German's teammate keeps this blog updated daily. Today's post is pretty outlandish, but it helps give a deeper look into those guys' training, especially the psychological perspective. Too bad Ritz doesn't have something like that.

http://cowboytrack.wordpress.com

oldold runner wrote:

It's German and all of you Letsrun posters have voted for him. Since German broke out his senior year in HS, it's been German vs. whomever is hot at the time. It started with German vs the HiSchoolers, best USAJR'S, Collegians and WJR'S. Now it is German vs the US'best. Next year it will be German vs the best Africans. German is the only one you Letsrunners VS. Not, CD, BF, GR, DU, DR, RH, EJ, MT, Etc. It's alway German. So deep down all you supporters and Nay Sayers know that German has the most talent. And all of you, just like me, wonder how good this kid can be if he stays health. His dream of an Olympic Gold medal may come true, in 2012, if he stays healthy.

Now I have to quote myself. Stop the nonsence. It's German. How come you Letsrun poster never compare anyone else to anyone else. It's always German. Come on admit it. No one has talked about German for months. He shows up and run 7:51 and after his coach admits that he had an iron defiecency that was discovered two weeks before his 7:51. I only wrote what the Coach said and I get slammed to do research and that it is not possible to recover in three days. Elevens days later he runs 7:51. Then this thread is started. All you Letsrun posters admit that German is the most talented or else this topice would not have been started. You are so impressed by this young man's talent that you have to compare him to runners 6 to 10 years older the he. I have been following this sport for 39 years and in all that time I have never seen one runner Versus so many other runners. That alone verifies that German has the most talent in America in the last 40 years. And all you Letrun poster confirm this by your post. The negative poster are only envious because they deep down inside know who hase the great talent in America distance running today.It's GF!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

oldold runner..... are you gonna cry

Who gives a rats ass?

Talent only determines how quickly you become good, not how good you become.

Partly true, but it also determines how good you CAN become. One can have the best coach, nutrition, training program, altitude training, work ethic, high pain threshold, avoidance of injuries and every other advantage in the world, but without a certain amount of talent (e.g. natural physical ability and potential) could still only be just above average. Just as someone with a ton of talent but no fire in their belly could also fail.

This is hard to judge, but German seems to really love running, racing and winning. Even if he suffers more frequent injuries than Ritz, I'm confident he won't give up. The talent is clearly there without a doubt. But he seems to have the other main component - the will, the drive, the desire. To me it's not a question of if he'll surpass Ritz's performances up to 10K, but when.

Frankly I don't understand how any running fan would wish ill of either runner. There's no reason for it. Not even if you're not American. I have no desire for someone like Bekele, or another non-American who aspires to be the next Bekele to fail. Winning championships and breaking records can only serve to elevate our sport. Who doesn't want that? I know that many of the participants in this thread are merely stating what they think the reasonable potential is for these runners. But there are still far too many who take some sort of sick joy out of the failure of others. To those I say get a f*****g life.

Both Ritz and Fernandez will suffer further setbacks. But I'm pretty sure both will get many of their goals. Who wouldn't want that? Fernandez may not break the collegiate 5000 record of 13:08 before he graduates (I'd put money on it happening by his jr year though), or medal in 2012, but I'm sure he'll at some point break some American record and win some championships. Who wouldn't want that for him? Ritz may not specifically run a sub-2:05, but he almost definitely has a couple historic marathons in him.

Fastnbulbous wrote:

Frankly I don't understand how any running fan would wish ill of either runner.

Amen.

German appears more talented right now because he's new and exciting. Everyone whose been around for more than 10 years in the sport knows that Ritz is the real deal.

Ghost of Paavo Nurmi wrote:

Who gives a rats ass?

Talent only determines how quickly you become good, not how good you become.

Wow, what a remarkably strange definition of talent. Did you make that up all by yourself?