ventolin^3 wrote:
he was in likely 1'42-mid shape in '86 euros, albeit lotta drafting
however, he wouda been blown away in edinburgh-'86 cram but coe got a "chest infection" & dns
cram in edinburgh-'86 was in very likely the same "warm" weather 800 that souly was for route-1 800 in monaco, namely
~ 1'41-mid
Utter nonsense.
Steve Cram’s 800m victory in the 86 Commonwealth final, as magnificent as it was, is not indicative of 1:41 mid ability, and he would tell you so himself.
The Commonwealth 800 is another prime example of Cram running his best times off even splits, this time 51.7/51.5.
The weather conditions would have had a negligible effect on finishing time. The wind reading in the two 200m finals that day were +2.07m/s and +2.15m/s. So it was in the same direction and would therefore have had a positive effect going down the home straight equal to the negative one it had on the back straight. It was not raining at the time of the 800 final and there were no puddles on the track.
Cram had drafting from 200 to 470m, again, 70m extra than normal provision. He was tight on the 2nd bend, ran on the line with lane 2 on some of the 3rd bend (2.5m extra) and tight in lane 1 on last bend once passing Elliott at 600m. He may have run an extra 0.5m there. That's 3m extra at most, which works out at 1:42.83 for 800m. Add on the extra 0.12 for 70m additional drafting and we're back around the 1:42.9 mark, same for his Zurich run.
If Cram's run in Edinburgh was worth faster due to weather (which you claim), which I don't believe it is, then Coe's 800 in Stuttgart needs to be adjusted accordingly. Not only was it raining at the time of the 800 final in the Europeans, with noticeable puddles all over the track and officials wearing rain coats, but the wind readings that day were changeable. On the same day, in the men's 200m heat 2, the wind read -1.7m/sec, Gladisch ran with a + 0.5m/s, while Dreschler ran into a -1.1m/s and Heather Oakes into a -2.0m/sec. Robert Emmiyan had a +1.9 in his Long Jump qualifying, and Caristan ran into a - 1.0 in the 110H heat. So the wind was just as strong as in Edinburgh, and was changeable. The women’s 400m final was just before the men’s 800m, and Mel Watman wrote at the time in AW, that if not for the wet and windy conditions “Koch would likely have broken 48 secs”.
Coe also ran at least 10m extra in his final.
Cram’s win in Edinburgh was no more impressive than Coe’s in Stuttgart if you know anything about splits and distribution of effort/pace! Cram's Edinburgh run had pretty even splits of 25.2, 26.5, 26.5 & 25.0. (51.7, 51.5). He was basically paced to 600m, ran about 3m extra (worth 1:42.8). Cram had 270m of drafting (200 – 470m), which is 70m further than what is expected in a fast tt. That’s worth 0.12, so if we add this back to Cram’s time we end up with 1:42.9. That is no indication whatsoever of 1:41 mid ability.
In Stuttgart the 3 rounds were on consecutive days, and the times were faster. Cram in Edinburgh would be fresher because of the lack of intensity leading up to the final. The Europeans were of a higher standard. Coe's aim in the Europeans was to track Cram and outkick him in the home straight. The splits in the Euro final were more erratic, taking more finishing speed out of an athlete.
Watch the Stuttgart 800 & see how wide Coe runs all 3 bends. Running on the line with lane 2 on each bend means you run 2.89 m further, running on inside of lane 2 = 3.5m per bend. Coe’s actual splits in the European final were also negative (52.8, 51.7), but, taking into consideration he actually ran c810m, his splits would have been equivalent to 52.5, 50.7 for 800m, which is 1:43.2. His last 200m was 24.8 in rain, running much of it wide. It was worth about 24.5 if he could have run on the inside.
Coe's last 100m in Stuttgart was 12.4, compared to Cram's 12.8 in Edinburgh. It was also raining in Stuttgart, which would slow the track. As I've said before, Coe ran very wide on all 3 bends, and even though his finishing time was 1:44.5, it was worth c. 1:43.2. (1:43.3 with extra 40m of drafting) Comparable to Cram’s time in Edinburgh.
So we have intrinsic runs of: -
Cram - 1:42.9 (51.7/51.2) with a last 200m of 25.0, last 100m of 12.8, following a 1:51 and 1:48 3 days earlier in conditions with 2m/sec wind blowing in one direction.
Coe - 1:43.3 (52.5/50.8) with a last 200m of 24.5, last 100m of 12.4, following 1:47.6 and 1:47.1 on consecutive days, in wet conditions with a changeable wind of between -2.0 and +1.9m/sec.
I fail to see how anyone can value the former as worth 1:41 mid and the latter 1:42 mid, unless a significant bias is at play. They are of at least equivalent quality, with Coe’s slightly the superior IMHO when all things considered, mainly based on a much faster last 200m.
In a well paced tt, drafting to the bell and in good conditions, I’d have given Cram 1:42.5 and Coe 1:42.3 on their respective days that year.
As a further example of the weakness of the Edinburgh field in comparison to Cram, one only has to look at Mckean’s performances in both races. He had always stated that he aimed to be at a peak for the Europeans at the end of August. He ran almost identical times in both Champs, but whereas his last 200m in the Common. was 26.1, in Stuttgart it was 25.2! Cram aimed to be at a peak in Edinburgh and "try" to maintain it until the Europeans. It's not that Cram wasn't as good at the Euro, but rather the rest of his rivals had improved.
Cram himself ran c 809m in the final in Stuttgart and had only 100m of drafting. If we take these 2 factors into consideration, he ends up with a 1:43.5 performance with a last 200m of 25.0, not dissimilar to the same stats in the Commonwealth race. In fact, adjusted for extra distance and lack of 100m worth of drafting I’d give Cram 200 splits of
~ 25.4, 26.6, 26.5, 25.0 in Stuttgart. (=1:43.5), compared to...
~ 25.2, 26.5, 26.2, 25.0 in Edinburgh. (=1:42.9)
The reason Cram didn't appear to reproduce the same 2nd lap in Stuttgart as in Edinburgh is because all the variables were different; intensity of rounds, extra distance run, weather, improved opposition, changes in pace, etc. But the most significant variable was Coe!