We’ve had four big invites across the last two weekends—The Mook, Fort Steilacoom, Portland XC, and Bellevue. It’s hard to compare performances between courses—especially when one (The Mook) was demonstrably short, and three (all but Fort Steilacoom) were incredibly flat but with different surfaces. But across the two weekends we can create a speed index of sorts by looking at runners who ran in two of these four races and comparing their times.
Focusing on the faster boy runners (sub 16:00 this weekend), and comparing this weekend’s times to last weekend’s times, we see the following:
The Mook to Bellevue: 50 seconds faster on average at The Mook than Bellevue for five boys (range 29-75 faster)
The Mook to Portland: 24 seconds faster on average at The Mook than Portland for four boys (range 20-27 seconds faster)
Fort Steilacoom to Bellevue: 36 seconds slower on average at Fort Steilacoom than Bellevue for five boys (range 23-53 seconds slower)
Fort Steilacoom to Portland: 24 seconds slower at Fort Steilacoom than Portland for six boys (range 20-30 seconds slower)
This is a small number of runners to draw huge conclusions for all sorts of reasons, but it’s enough to reasonably support the following:
(1) The Mook was about 30 seconds faster than the courses this weekend, and Fort Steilacoom was about 30 seconds slower. Not going to debate the distances again, just looking at the times. Exceptions abound but these are reasonable rules of thumb for comparing performances.
(2) Cohen Butler is really, really good and is the runner to beat this year. He ran a fast (14:40) and gutsy race Friday in Portland, taking the lead for a brief time in the last quarter mile of the race, looking strong in the process.
(2) Dylan Rowell is firmly the next best. Only three seconds behind Butler at Portland (14:43), but the way the two ran their races made Butler’s performance much stronger than those mere three seconds would suggest, given the strong attempt to take the win at the end. Still, an amazing performance that puts him firmly as the second best in the state.
(3) There’s several runners who are all right next to each other in the abstract: Mana Voss, Henry Herb, Quenton Lanese, Miro Parr-Coffin, Bodie Thomas, Lord King, and an argument could be made for others. But the limited results we have so far don’t have a clear cut number three. Voss has the best claim to the spot but not by a meaningful margin.
(4) Isaac Benjamin and Kian Compton aren’t where we (or at least I) thought they would be. Both arguably aren’t competing in that group of runners for that third spot at this point. Could be illness or injury involved. But there’s still plenty of time in the season for things to turn around.
(5) Not many face offs next weekend. Parr-Coffin and Herb will be at the Battle for the 509. Thomas and Lanese (as well as Jesuit and Summit from OR—it’ll be a good race, though not a fast course!) will be at Payne. Most will likely show up at Hole in the Wall the following weekend, however.