The same lab involved in Kipchoge's calculations for the sub-2 hour marathon did the calculations for Faith going sub-4. The calculations showed theoretically it *might* be possible under the perfect conditions. She was 3% off the 4-minute mark, which was how far the men were from the 2-hr mark.
For the new study, the team pored over video of Kipyegon’s record one-mile finish
in Monaco. The wind was dead calm. A slight humidity (which reduces air resistance) hung in the air, and she was wearing state-of-the-art shoes.
But her pacers ran too fast at first, said Kram, letting the gap between them and her widen. By the last lap, her pacers had dropped out and she was on her own.
Ideally, he said, one female pacer would be perfectly spaced in front, another in back, for the first half mile; then another fresh-legged pair would step in to take their place at the half-mile point. Collectively, previous research suggests, they could cut air resistance by 76%. Using that value, the team calculated her projected finish time: Remarkably,
3:59.37—the same time Bannister hit in 1954. “We didn’t cook these numbers,” joked Kram. “We saw that and just smiled.”
Kipp, now a postdoctoral researcher at the Mayo Clinic, stresses that their study, like most in the field of exercise physiology, comes with a caveat: Their calculations were based on previous studies that exclusively involved men. The authors hope their paper will help spark more interest in studying the physiology of female athletes.