WEBB VS RITZ AT STANFORD 10k SUNDAY

blinkncliean wrote:

I don't know why I'm jumping into this conversation, but oh well.

No human being can "easily" break 13 minutes in a 5k. If Ritz does (and he might very well down the road) break 13, it would be done with years of hard work and a ton of talent. "Easily" is when I walk down the street. It doesn't take any real effort. By calling it easy, you take away so much from the runners who have done so or will do so in the future.

There is nothing easy about it. Change your wording b/c it makes you look like an uneducated observer.

As he ran 13:25 'easily' the other day, he will someday run sub 13:00 easily. OF COURSE it takes work. Good grief talk about splitting hairs. I mean easily as in well within his ability. 13:00 is not even pushing the level of his talent.

Beleeever wrote:

Question:

Who's AR did he brake for 2 miles and how much was it by? What did that person run for 5k? Just for thought.

Your wrong words and misspellings aside (see 'whose' and 'break'), what the hell does Alan Webb's progress have to do with where Ritz will be one day? Answer: NOTHING.

PRs are the same as the stock market -- Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future gains.

Alan Webb is a stud. He could someday break the current world record in the mile; he most assuredly will break Scott's AR in the mile. Great for him. Why is it that whenever someone talks about Ritz that you people need to bring Webb up to compare? They are two different runners with two different ranges that overlap a bit at 5,000 meters. So what? Can they not both be great?

The fact that Ritz will one day break the current AR in the 5,000 and the 10,000 has nothing at all to do with Alan Webb.

Remember a couple years ago during Webb's freshman year at Michigan and then the year after, everyone and their brother (not me though, because I knew better) was saying Webb was burned out, had already run his career mile PR, was too into the money he was getting to train properly, made a mistake leaving Michigan, looked like a beaver, and on and on? Same is going on here for Ritz. He's had some injury and illness problems, and many of you (black and white people -- ironic that you call me that when I'm anything but that) can't see his true talent through his just-short-of-stellar PRs to date. If I (along with ROJO -- good going ROJO!) have to be the visionary on this web site, then so be it.

The biggest I TOLD YOU SO in the history of Letsrun is coming, and it's coming from me to all you Ritz doubters.

Willy, I don't disagree with you on Ritz (though I think your 5k prediction is a wee bit overly optimistic), but aren't you overlooking Goucher? He has a modicum of talent and he has the chance to do some great things over the next few years. Couldn't he potentially be the one to drop a 12:55 and 26:50? It's precisely when people begin to overlook or dismiss him that he defies the odds. I think he will get there before Ritz... not saying that he will ultimately own all of the ARs, but just that Ritz will have to go through his shoes.

It's interesting how Goucher's name is absent from these Ritz vs. Webb threads, and yet, I think he is the one with the best chance of going sub-13 and sub-27 this year if he chooses to focus on the longer distance.

1. PR's are not like the stock market. you have a lot better chance of predicting someone PR'ing based on their workouts and past sequence of races. Any numb-nut knows that. A lot easier than the stock market. The funny thing is how you say it is impossible to predict but then go on to predict Ritz will run 12:50 and 26:50 or whatever. You should listen to your scientifically-minded wife, or at least get her to correct your logic.

2. The reason why people discount Ritz is because he can't seem to stay healthy for longer than 3 months. He hasn't even put in half a season in Europe yet!!! I think most people would agree he is one of the most talented Americans ever, but everyone has gotten a lot more cautious since he is never healthy when it is go-time. He'll be good in the fall or spring but not when it counts - in the winter for cross, or the summer for WC's or Europe racing.

3. There is no way anyone would care about your supposed TOLD YOU SO. AS you may recall, a ton of people on these boards were singing Ritz's praises for many years, especially after the 27:38. No one really doubts if he is healthy for two years he can put together a sub13 but that's just it. No one can predict if he can get out of the injury bug, not even you Willy.

Does anyone know if Joe Falcon every ran a 10k on the track?

32 years wrote:

The only American who has run sub-3:55 and sub-28:

Pre.

Facts in the way of a rant wrote:

Culpepper 3:55.12 27:33

Kennedy 3:56.21 27:37

Cummings 3:37.6 1500 27:43

McChesney 3:56.36 27:47

Hill 3:56.41 27:56

First name to pop to my mind was Sydney Maree but I can't find any evidence that he ran sub-28 for 10k - did he simply not run many 10k races? He certainly had the ability to run sub-28.

Ritz might consider filing a restraining order on that flagpole guy. He seems like an obsessed whacko.

1. You say you can predict a persons possible PR's based on workouts etc. If you had behind the scenes access to all the information pertaining to a certain company you could possibly predict what would happen to the company so I contend that they are similar.

no they're not - we hear about a few workouts but everyone knows all the races. there is a whole lot less hidden information and running times are inherently a much easier system to predict since the stock market takes on a myriad of global factors.

Ritz will win. Webb will be around 27:40. Caroline Beerbong will round out the top three with a 33:15.

Well possibly the stock market as a whole takes on global factors but an individual stock may not. If it was completely impossible to predict the performance of stocks then why would the phrase "insider trading" even exist.

I could counter by saying we have no idea how the 10k will go becuase we dont know 1. What will the weather be like. 2. Will there be a pacemaker. 3. Perhaps Ritz is not bothered about time and would be happy with a slow race through 7k with a blistering last 3k. All these factors could affect the outcome of a race.

Obviously there are external factors which could affect a stock price. global factors as you mentioned, pertinent legislation. But I still contend that they are similar.

placido wrote:

32 years wrote:

The only American who has run sub-3:55 and sub-28:

Pre.

Facts in the way of a rant wrote:

Culpepper 3:55.12 27:33

Kennedy 3:56.21 27:37

Cummings 3:37.6 1500 27:43

McChesney 3:56.36 27:47

Hill 3:56.41 27:56

First name to pop to my mind was Sydney Maree but I can't find any evidence that he ran sub-28 for 10k - did he simply not run many 10k races? He certainly had the ability to run sub-28.

No, Maree never did it, before or after citizenship.

Interesting thing about Pre's marks is that he did all the work in both, running 27:43 AR solo and running 3:54.6 while generously acting as rabbit for Wottle's record mile

attempt (leading until the last 200, Wottle winning in 3:53).

I'll be at Stanford Sunday and hope to see Webb join the club, sub-27:45 maybe.

Even if Ritz is in great shape, this year's field isn't as loaded as 2004. Abdi and Lagat were pacers. Kiplitan, Lombard, Brown, Kennedy, Ritz... That was a loaded field and Meb ran 27:24.

I'd give Ritz/Craig 27:30-27:35 at best. Again, if Webb can match the pace until the final 800, then he would get the nod.

Facts in the way of a rant wrote:

Cummings 3:37.6 1500 27:43

Culpepper 3:55.12 27:33

Kennedy 3:56.21 27:37

McChesney 3:56.36 27:47

Hill 3:56.41 27:56

Cummings 3:37.6 = 3:54.9

Kennedy 3:38.32 = 3:55.69

Culpepper 3:38.64 = 3:56.02

Hill 3:39.85 = 3:57.33

McChesney 3:40.0 = 3:57.50

Coach Bigfoot wrote:

You don't think Ritz could run a 3:57?

Where did I say that? I posted PRs of American runners CLOSEST to being sub 28/3:55. Ritz's PR is 3:42.99. Not in the ballpark.

Webbs 5k is 12 seconds faster than Ritz. Just saying.

?????????????? wrote:

Does anyone know if Joe Falcon every ran a 10k on the track?

He won the NCAA 10K title in 1987.

I think some of you guys are getting a bit excited about 10km times, under 27.30 for a non-african is fricken smoking, Mottrams PB is still around 27.50ish I think even though he hasn't had a good stab for a while. I think if webb runs sub 28 then thats a really good run for him, and if Rutz can PB at all then thats a bloody good run for him. Although many of you will get excited and say that Ritz will be able to strip minutes of that later in the year.

sheister wrote:

I think some of you guys are getting a bit excited about 10km times, under 27.30 for a non-african is fricken smoking, Mottrams PB is still around 27.50ish I think even though he hasn't had a good stab for a while. I think if webb runs sub 28 then thats a really good run for him, and if Rutz can PB at all then thats a bloody good run for him. Although many of you will get excited and say that Ritz will be able to strip minutes of that later in the year.

C'mon now, Meb and Abdi are non-Africans. They are Americans now.