You forgot to mention...At altitude. She's part of what may be the best 1-2 punch in girls distance running history, with Jane.
So, Utah is already done with State? ...and now they can start to prepare for Nationals next month, while many states are just starting regionals and have 3 more races before State.
She also didn’t qualify for NXN last year. Track runner.
How do the Texas teams look this spring on the track? I know track times don't always lead to XC success but Rogers High is having a heck of a spring season led by Lillie Beshears.
They have 3 girls that have gone sub 11, another one just over 11, and 3 under 5 with a couple more right over.
Flower Mound is graduating two of their top 3 and their best runner was hurt for track, someone is always hurt with them. Southlake is graduating a few of their top runners. Bridgeland is graduating one of their better runners. A lot will depend on who emerges from the summer training. With Texas you have a bunch of good individual runners not on good teams. Rodgers could slip in for a team spot this year.
It seems like Flower Mound, Southlake, Bridgeland, and Rogers all have an equal chance of getting top 2 at NXR South
Flower Mound is losing some top runners but they always seem to reload. They still made NXN the year after losing Natalie Cook and few other 2022 grads, and they won NXR after losing the Humphries sisters and a couple of more 2024 grads.
Southlake Carroll is losing some top runners too but they always seem to reload and peak at NXR. Last year they snuck into 2nd after having a disappointing state meet. Last time the girls team didn’t make NXN was 2018 I believe.
Bridgeland missed NXN by 1 point but is losing 1 senior. They won RunningLane nationals without a senior. All that will probably make them hungry to qualify.
Rogers took 4th at NXR and is returning everyone and is having a great track season. Solid low stick in Beshears
She finished 10 seconds behind Edwards at NXR. That would have placed her 8th at NXN. If her time difference from Jane was the same she would have gotten AA. Not just a "track runner."
RankTeamStateKey Returning StrengthsEstimated Chance for Top 2 FinishRationale Highlights1Flower MoundTXElite #1 (Bennett), strong returning pack with excellent track PBs, program dynasty.65%Despite key losses, Bennett is a potential individual champion. Proven ability to reload. Track PBs from the returning pack are very strong.2RogersARReigning NXR Indiv. Champ (Beshears), rapidly improving young pack with outstanding track PBs.60%Beshears is a guaranteed low stick. E. Scudder, K. Eggers, K. Scudder all near 5:00 for 1600m. Significant team improvement likely.3BridgelandTXElite #1 (Saacke), deep and experienced returning core, strong track PBs.55%Saacke (10:05 3200m ) is a national talent. Strong returning pack from team that nearly qualified in '24; high motivation.4Smithson ValleyTXUIL 5A State Champs, very young and talented core (Koenig, Solansky), outstanding 2025 track PBs.50%Koenig (10:31 3200m), Solansky (4:57 1600m). Significant jump from 11th at NXR '24 expected. Loss of Perez impactful but depth is strong.5Southlake CarrollTXStrong returning pack depth, program pedigree, historically peaks well for NXR.35%Loss of top 2 is significant. Chances depend heavily on (currently unknown) track improvement of returning 3-7 runners.6KatyTXSolid 1-2 returners (Acopa, Fish), 3rd at TX State indicates depth.20%Need development in the pack and to confirm returning status/impact of other top 2024 runners. Acopa's 5:12 1600m is solid.7The WoodlandsTXHistorically strong program, very deep returning pack with solid track PBs.15%Weller and Vezga lead a group of experienced runners. Collective improvement needed to break into top tier.8LovejoyTXStrong 2024 NXR finish (7th), good pack running. Returning core includes Bernal and Benson.10%Bernal (11:00 3200m) and Benson (11:09 3200m) are strong. Depth development will be key.
You forgot to mention...At altitude. She's part of what may be the best 1-2 punch in girls distance running history, with Jane.
So, Utah is already done with State? ...and now they can start to prepare for Nationals next month, while many states are just starting regionals and have 3 more races before State.
She also didn’t qualify for NXN last year. Track runner.
Southwest region is deep and stacked, and Alder would have made NXN from just about any other region.
Next year Southwest is graduating a lot of top individuals. And Ritzenhein will likely qualify for NXN as part of her team Niwot this time, which will give an NXN qualifying spot to another individual
Sorry. The report format didn't copy and paste as well as it appeared in post preview. I will post the rest part by part. It was really impressive how in depth the Gemini report was. Tried the same thing in ChatGPT but the results had a lot of made up facts and wasn't as detailed.
A. Flower Mound (TX) 2024 XC Season Synopsis: Flower Mound XC Club (representing Flower Mound High School) had an exceptional 2024 season, culminating in a dominant victory at the NXR South Regional Championship with a low score of 44 points. This performance secured their qualification for Nike Cross Nationals. Earlier in the season, they also claimed the highly competitive Texas UIL 6A State Championship title with 47 points, showcasing their prowess within the state. Impact of Graduating Seniors (Class of 2025 - Will NOT return for Fall 2025 XC): Flower Mound will see the departure of Alexandra Fox, a key contributor who finished 7th at NXR South (17:37.8) and 5th at the UIL 6A State meet (17:44.0). Ava Cole, another consistent scorer (20th at NXR South in 18:28.0, 6th at State in 18:00.4) , is also a 2025 graduate. The loss of these two top-tier runners will undoubtedly be felt. Key Returning Runners for Fall 2025 & 2025 Track PBs: Despite the graduations, Flower Mound returns a formidable core. Table: Flower Mound - Projected Key Returners for 2025 XC Runner Name Projected 2025-26 Grade Notable 2024 XC 5k Times (NXR/State) 2025 Spring Track 1600m PB 2025 Spring Track 3200m PB Snippet Source(s) for Grade & Track Adeline Bennett Junior 17:56.0 (NXR) / 17:43.7 (State) 4:45.99 10:36.09 Liana Cluley-Garza Junior 18:28.3 (NXR) / 19:01.4 (State) 5:20.61 11:09.11 Keira Primer Senior 19:02.3 (NXR) / 18:34.1 (State) 5:13.28 11:37.93 Eliana Rivera Junior 19:37.3 (NXR) / 19:09.0 (State) 5:26.45 11:47.4h Mckayla Kohutek Senior 20:13.9 (State) 5:10.02 11:30.70 Analysis of Returning Core: The Jaguars are spearheaded by Adeline Bennett, who as a sophomore demonstrated elite talent with a sub-18 minute performance at NXR South and impressive track personal bests of 4:45.99 in the 1600m and 10:36.09 in the 3200m. This positions her as a potential individual contender at NXR South 2025. The returning group of Liana Cluley-Garza, Keira Primer, Eliana Rivera, and Mckayla Kohutek provides a strong supporting cast, all of whom have valuable championship experience and have shown solid track progression. Insights from 2025 Track Season: The 2025 track season was highly indicative of Flower Mound's continued strength. Bennett's sub-4:46 1600m is a national-caliber time. The progression of Cluley-Garza (11:09 3200m), Primer (5:13 1600m), Rivera (11:47 3200m), and Kohutek (5:10 1600m, 11:30 3200m) underscores the depth and development within the program. This consistent improvement across their returning scorers is a hallmark of a top program. The development of runners like Megan Schmidt (10th grade, 5:16 1600m) further illustrates that the talent pipeline remains robust, ready to fill any gaps. Early Outlook for NXR South 2025: Flower Mound is a clear favorite to once again finish in the top two at NXR South. Their blend of top-end talent with Bennett, strong returning depth, a history of reloading successfully, and positive track indicators make them a formidable force. The program's dynasty, marked by five consecutive 6A state titles , creates a culture of excellence and expectation that often translates to sustained high-level performance. Even with key departures, their system is designed to produce varsity-ready athletes who can step up.
B. Southlake Carroll (TX) 2024 XC Season Synopsis: Southlake Carroll experienced a notable trajectory in 2024. After a somewhat disappointing 6th place finish at the Texas UIL 6A State meet (170 points) , the team regrouped impressively to secure the NXR South Runner-Up spot with 107 points, narrowly qualifying for NXN. This late-season surge demonstrated their regional competitiveness and ability to peak when it matters most. Impact of Graduating Seniors (Class of 2025 - Will NOT return for Fall 2025 XC): Carroll will lose its top two performers from the 2024 NXR South meet. Elizabeth Smits (18:39.3 at NXR, 19:11.3 at State) and Sarayu Veluri (18:50.7 at NXR, 18:49.9 at State) are both confirmed Class of 2025 graduates and will not return. The departure of their #1 and #2 runners from the regional championship is a significant challenge. Key Returning Runners for Fall 2025 & 2025 Track PBs: The strength for Carroll in 2025 will lie in its returning pack. Table: Southlake Carroll - Projected Key Returners for 2025 XC Runner Name Projected 2025-26 Grade Notable 2024 XC 5k Times (NXR/State) 2025 Spring Track 1600m PB 2025 Spring Track 3200m PB Snippet Source(s) for Grade & Track Grace McIlvain Junior 18:57.5 (NXR) / 19:24.9 (State) Abigail Perez Junior 19:06.5 (NXR) / 19:06.9 (State) Quinn Salstrand Junior 19:29.1 (NXR) / 19:19.2 (State) Luna Gutierrez Senior 19:32.3 (State) Gabriella Tesoriero Junior 19:46.7 (State) *Data for 2025 Spring Track PBs was inaccessible from the provided research.[10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20]* Analysis of Returning Core: The loss of Smits and Veluri creates a void at the front. However, Carroll returns a cohort of runners who will be juniors and seniors in Fall 2025. Grace McIlvain, Abigail Perez, Quinn Salstrand, and Luna Gutierrez all recorded 5k times under 19:35 at either NXR South or the State meet in 2024. This returning pack depth is a traditional Carroll strength. Their success in 2025 will hinge on their collective improvement and the emergence of new frontrunners from this group or their developing athletes. Insights from 2025 Track Season: A significant data gap exists due to the inaccessibility of 2025 track results for Southlake Carroll's key returning distance runners. Without this information, gauging individual progression in the 1600m and 3200m is challenging and represents a major unknown in their 2025 NXR South projection. Access to their 2024 track times could offer a baseline for expected improvement, even if 2025 data remains elusive. Early Outlook for NXR South 2025: Southlake Carroll's legacy as a national-caliber program suggests they possess the coaching and talent development systems to address graduation losses. Their NXR South performance in 2024, an improvement from their State finish, highlights their regional competitiveness. While the loss of their top two is substantial, if their returning pack demonstrates significant improvement (which would be confirmed by strong track seasons), they will remain strong contenders for a top-two NXR South finish. Their ultimate chances are heavily reliant on the (currently unknown) track progression of their core returners.
C. Bridgeland (TX) 2024 XC Season Synopsis: Bridgeland delivered a very strong 2024 campaign, finishing as the Texas UIL 6A State Runner-Up with 81 points. At the NXR South Regional, they placed a heartbreaking 3rd with 108 points, missing qualification for Nike Cross Nationals by a single point to Southlake Carroll. Impact of Graduating Seniors (Class of 2025 - Will NOT return for Fall 2025 XC): The most significant loss for Bridgeland is Lily Fawcett. Listed as a 12th grader for the 2024 District meet , she was a crucial top runner, evidenced by her 2nd place finish at the State meet (17:32.1) and a top-10 individual NXR South performance (18:03.7). Key Returning Runners for Fall 2025 & 2025 Track PBs: Bridgeland returns an exceptionally strong and motivated nucleus. Table: Bridgeland - Projected Key Returners for 2025 XC Runner Name Projected 2025-26 Grade Notable 2024 XC 5k Times (NXR/State) 2025 Spring Track 1600m PB 2025 Spring Track 3200m PB Snippet Source(s) for Grade & Track Rowan Saacke Senior 17:48.2 (NXR) / 18:03.4 (State) 4:49.23 10:05.90 Susana Rawls Senior 18:50.6 (NXR) / 18:21.1 (State) 5:11.50 11:29.82 Haley Hill Senior 19:47.4 (NXR) / 19:03.1 (State) 5:33.19 11:26.20 Kate Garrison Junior 19:13.5 (NXR) / 19:26.9 (State) 5:19.87 Alexandra Montgomery Senior 19:16.5 (State) / 19:48.33 (District '24) 5:10.17 11:23.86 Brynlee Weston Junior 20:15.0 (State) / 20:05.46 (District '24) 11:47.91 Analysis of Returning Core: Bridgeland is in an enviable position, led by Rowan Saacke, who has established herself as one of the nation's elite distance runners with stunning track bests of 4:49.23 for 1600m and a remarkable 10:05.90 for 3200m. This kind of front-running talent is invaluable. They return four of their top five scorers from the 2024 NXR South meet (Saacke, Rawls, Garrison, Hill). Susana Rawls, Haley Hill, Alexandra Montgomery, and Kate Garrison all bring significant championship experience and have demonstrated strong development. Insights from 2025 Track Season: The 2025 track season was a resounding success for Bridgeland's returning athletes. Saacke's progression to a 10:05 3200m places her among the best nationally and suggests she could contend for the individual NXR South title. Rawls (5:11 1600m, 11:29 3200m), Montgomery (5:10 1600m, 11:23 3200m), Hill (11:26 3200m), and Garrison (5:19 1600m) all posted track times that indicate a very strong and improving core. This collective improvement is a powerful indicator of their potential for the 2025 cross country season. The experience of missing national qualification by such a slim margin in 2024 often serves as a potent catalyst for focused off-season training and heightened determination. This psychological factor, combined with their evident talent, makes them a particularly formidable squad. Early Outlook for NXR South 2025: With a dynamic low-stick runner in Saacke, a deep and experienced returning pack, and the powerful motivation stemming from their near-miss in 2024, Bridgeland is a prime candidate for a top-two finish at NXR South and an automatic bid to NXN. Their depth and proven ability to perform at a high level in championship settings are significant assets.
D. Rogers (AR) 2024 XC Season Synopsis: Rogers High School, representing Arkansas, had a strong 2024 season, highlighted by an 8th place finish at NXR South with 254 points and a dominant victory at the Arkansas 6A State Championships with 46 points. Their NXR South performance was spearheaded by Lilly Beshears, who claimed the individual NXR South Championship title. Impact of Graduating Seniors (Class of 2025 - Will NOT return for Fall 2025 XC): Based on available roster information and 2024 results, Rogers appears to have minimal impact on their top returning scorers from the Class of 2025. Key Returning Runners for Fall 2025 & 2025 Track PBs: Rogers boasts a formidable returning lineup, featuring the reigning NXR South champion. Table: Rogers - Projected Key Returners for 2025 XC Runner Name Projected 2025-26 Grade Notable 2024 XC 5k Times (NXR/State) 2025 Spring Track 1600m PB 2025 Spring Track 3200m PB Snippet Source(s) for Grade & Track Lilly Beshears Senior 17:07.4 (NXR Champ) / 17:05.4 (State) 4:48.43 10:26.89 Samantha Schmersahl Senior 19:13.3 (NXR) / 18:26.1 (State) 5:08.90 (2024 Outdoor) Kayla Eggers Junior 19:50.0 (NXR) / 17:59.3 (Chile Pepper '24) 5:00.57 Katherine "Kate" Scudder Junior 19:32.3 (NXR) 5:02.89 11:09.17 Elizabeth Scudder Junior 19:39.3 (NXR) 4:59.56 10:57.36 Malaya Johnson Senior 20:40.3 (State '24) 2:10.15 (800m) Analysis of Returning Core: Rogers is led by the exceptionally talented Lilly Beshears, whose NXR South individual title provides a significant advantage with a consistent low score. The supporting cast of Samantha Schmersahl, Kayla Eggers, and the Scudder twins (Katherine and Elizabeth) forms a potent pack. This group demonstrated strong performances in 2024, with the latter three running sub-19:40 at NXR South as underclassmen. Malaya Johnson's 2:10.15 800m speed also indicates high athletic potential. Insights from 2025 Track Season: The 2025 track season saw continued elite development from Beshears (4:48 1600m, 10:26 3200m). Critically, the pack behind her also made substantial gains. Elizabeth Scudder (4:59 1600m), Kayla Eggers (5:00 1600m), and Kate Scudder (5:02 1600m) all posted impressive times, signaling a significant leap in their collective strength. This development transforms Rogers from a team with a star frontrunner to a team with a star and a formidable, rapidly improving pack. Such progression often foreshadows a significant rise in regional and national rankings. The ability of multiple runners to approach or break the 5:00 barrier for 1600m suggests they are capable of much faster 5k times in the upcoming cross country season than their 2024 NXR marks might indicate. Early Outlook for NXR South 2025: Rogers (AR) emerges as a very strong contender for a top-two NXR South finish and an NXN berth. Their 8th place finish at NXR South in 2024 may not fully reflect their 2025 potential, given the youth of their core and their outstanding track season improvements. With an individual champion leading a tight, fast, and improving pack, they have the necessary components to challenge the traditional Texas powerhouses. While Texas teams often dominate NXR South discussions, Rogers' state championship performance and Beshears' individual NXR title, coupled with the pack's track progression, serve as a clear indication of their capabilities.
E. Owasso (OK) 2024 XC Season Synopsis: Owasso secured the Oklahoma 6A State Championship with a commanding 43 points. At the NXR South Regional, they finished in 9th place with 266 points. Impact of Graduating Seniors (Class of 2025 - Will NOT return for Fall 2025 XC): Owasso faces significant losses due to graduation. Bella Nelson, the Oklahoma 6A State Champion and their top NXR South performer (17:56.2 at NXR, 17:27.40 at State), was a senior in the 2024 XC season and will not return. Additionally, Quinn Thomason, another key scorer at NXR (19:49.5), is listed as a Class of 2025 graduate and will also depart. Key Returning Runners for Fall 2025 & 2025 Track PBs: The returning group will be led by Ava Cornelius. Table: Owasso - Projected Key Returners for 2025 XC Runner Name Projected 2025-26 Grade Notable 2024 XC 5k Times (NXR/State) 2025 Spring Track 1600m PB 2025 Spring Track 3200m PB Snippet Source(s) for Grade & Track Ava Cornelius Junior 17:53.1 (State) / 19:50.3 (NXR) 4:57.47 10:48.80 Lilith Johnson Junior 19:19.7 (NXR) 5:20.57 Analysis of Returning Core: The departure of Nelson and Thomason creates a substantial challenge for Owasso. Ava Cornelius returns as a highly accomplished runner, evidenced by her sub-18 minute state meet performance and exceptional 2025 track times (sub-5:00 1600m, sub-11:00 3200m). Lilith Johnson also brings valuable NXR experience with a 19:19 performance. However, the depth beyond these two runners is a significant concern for their regional aspirations. Insights from 2025 Track Season: Ava Cornelius has clearly developed into an elite-level talent, as her track personal bests demonstrate. Lilith Johnson's 5:20 1600m is a solid supporting time. To accurately assess Owasso's potential, 3200m results for Johnson and comprehensive track data for other potential returning varsity members from their 2024 state and NXR squads would be necessary. Early Outlook for NXR South 2025: The loss of their top two NXR scorers makes it difficult for Owasso to significantly improve upon their 9th place NXR finish from 2024. While Cornelius is a standout, the team will require several other athletes to make considerable improvements to contend for a top-two spot in the competitive NXR South region. They are likely to remain a top-10 regional team, but qualifying for NXN appears to be a long shot without the emergence of significant new talent or dramatic improvement from the rest of the returning pack. The departure of a dominant #1 runner like Nelson often requires a season or more for a team to fully recalibrate and develop new front-runners and pack strength.
F. Katy (TX) 2024 XC Season Synopsis: Katy High School had a strong 2024 season, finishing 3rd at the Texas UIL 6A State meet with 139 points and 4th at the NXR South Regional with 195 points. Impact of Graduating Seniors (Class of 2025 - Will NOT return for Fall 2025 XC): Victoria Guerrero (18:37.0 at State, 19:28.6 at NXR) was a key contributor. Assuming she was a senior in 2024-2025 (Class of 2025 from roster ), her graduation would impact their top five. Key Returning Runners for Fall 2025 & 2025 Track PBs: Katy returns a solid group of underclassmen from their 2024 squad. Table: Katy - Projected Key Returners for 2025 XC Runner Name Projected 2025-26 Grade Notable 2024 XC 5k Times (NXR/State) 2025 Spring Track 1600m PB 2025 Spring Track 3200m PB Snippet Source(s) for Grade & Track Lauren Acopa Junior 19:22.5 (NXR) / 19:01.1 (State) 5:12.45 Vienna Fish Sophomore 19:30.9 (NXR) / 19:07.7 (State) 12:20.09 (CC PR) Abby Lester Senior 19:10.4 (State) (Grade needed) Avery Torrey Senior 19:11.0 (State) (Grade needed) *Grade and comprehensive track data for Lester and Torrey are pending. Vienna Fish's track data for 1600/3200m in 2025 was not available in the provided snippets; [57, 11, 58] only shows CC PRs or non-2025 track data.* Analysis of Returning Core: Lauren Acopa is a strong returning runner, with a sub-19:30 NXR time and a 5:12 1600m track PB. Vienna Fish was a notable contributor as a freshman. The returning status and progression of Abby Lester and Avery Torrey will be crucial for Katy's depth. If Victoria Guerrero was a senior, her sub-18:40 state meet performance will be missed. Insights from 2025 Track Season: Lauren Acopa's 5:12.45 in the 1600m is a positive indicator. However, a comprehensive view of the team's track progression is limited by missing data for other key potential returners. Early Outlook for NXR South 2025: Katy's 3rd place finish at the Texas 6A State meet underscores their quality and depth. This level of performance in such a competitive state championship often signals a program capable of contending regionally. With Acopa and Fish leading the returners, they have a solid foundation. Their ability to challenge for a top-two NXR South spot will depend on the development of their pack and how effectively they can replace any graduating seniors from their top five.
G. The Woodlands (TX) 2024 XC Season Synopsis: The Woodlands finished 5th at the NXR South Regional with 202 points and 5th at the Texas UIL 6A State meet with 168 points. Impact of Graduating Seniors (Class of 2025 - Will NOT return for Fall 2025 XC): Stoya Laydevant, their top runner at NXR (18:46.9) and State (18:23.3), is listed as Class of 2025 and will graduate. This is a significant loss. Key Returning Runners for Fall 2025 & 2025 Track PBs: The Woodlands has several experienced runners expected to return. Table: The Woodlands - Projected Key Returners for 2025 XC Runner Name Projected 2025-26 Grade Notable 2024 XC 5k Times (NXR/State) 2025 Spring Track 1600m PB 2025 Spring Track 3200m PB Snippet Source(s) for Grade & Track Naomi Weller Junior 19:21.8 (NXR) / 18:27.7 (State) 5:08.46 11:14.27 Olivia Winiesdorffer Senior 19:30.7 (NXR) / 19:45.4 (State) Mickey Cahill Sophomore 19:44.5 (NXR) / 19:33.7 (State) Vanessa Vezga Senior 19:46.9 (NXR) / 19:57.7 (State) 5:08.33 11:28.74 (2024) Josie Hodgson Junior 19:47.0 (NXR) / 19:20.4 (State) 5:22.00 (2024) 11:51.0 (2023) Stella Wilder Senior 19:48.8 (NXR) / 20:08.0 (State) 5:19.43 11:38.43 Analysis of Returning Core: The Woodlands loses their #1 runner but returns a very deep and experienced pack. Naomi Weller (18:27 State, 5:08 1600m) and Vanessa Vezga (5:08 1600m) lead a group where five other returners ran under 19:50 at NXR South 2024. This depth is a significant asset. Insights from 2025 Track Season: Naomi Weller (5:08 1600m, 11:14 3200m), Vanessa Vezga (5:08 1600m), and Stella Wilder (5:19 1600m, 11:38 3200m) posted strong track times, indicating good development. Track data for Olivia Winiesdorffer and Mickey Cahill would further clarify their progression. Early Outlook for NXR South 2025: The Woodlands has a strong tradition and consistently fields competitive teams. While losing Laydevant hurts, their returning pack depth is among the best in the region. If this pack can collectively improve and move closer to the front, they will be in the mix for a high regional finish. They are a solid top-5 contender with potential to challenge for a qualifying spot if their runners make significant leaps.
H. Piedmont (OK) 2024 XC Season Synopsis: Piedmont finished an impressive 2nd at the Oklahoma 6A State meet with 72 points and followed that with a strong 6th place finish at NXR South, scoring 220 points. Impact of Graduating Seniors (Class of 2025 - Will NOT return for Fall 2025 XC): Analysis of available roster data suggests Piedmont's key scorers from NXR South 2024 are underclassmen. Key Returning Runners for Fall 2025 & 2025 Track PBs: Piedmont is led by the talented Collins sisters. Table: Piedmont - Projected Key Returners for 2025 XC Runner Name Projected 2025-26 Grade Notable 2024 XC 5k Times (NXR/State) 2025 Spring Track 1600m PB 2025 Spring Track 3200m PB Snippet Source(s) for Grade & Track Brooke Collins Junior 19:15.7 (NXR) 5:09.55 11:08.94 (2025) / 10:59.88 (2024) Claire Collins Senior 19:19.7 (NXR) 5:13.07 11:08.02 Analysis of Returning Core: Brooke and Claire Collins form a formidable duo, both running sub-19:20 at NXR South 2024 as underclassmen. Their 2025 track times are excellent, with Brooke running 5:09 for 1600m and Claire 5:13, and both running sub-11:10 for 3200m (Brooke's 10:59 was in 2024). Insights from 2025 Track Season: The Collins sisters have shown significant improvement and consistency on the track. Their ability to run fast times in both the 1600m and 3200m indicates strong aerobic development and racing prowess. Early Outlook for NXR South 2025: Piedmont has a very strong top two. Their challenge will be developing the depth behind Brooke and Claire Collins. If they can find 3-4 more runners to close the gap and score effectively, their strong front-running could propel them into the top 5 regionally and make them a potential spoiler. Their 6th place NXR finish in 2024 with a young core was promising.
I. Smithson Valley (TX) 2024 XC Season Synopsis: Smithson Valley (competing as Ranger XC club at NXR) had an excellent 2024 cross country season. They secured the Texas UIL 5A State Championship title with 54 points. At the NXR South Regional, they finished a strong 11th with 281 points. (NXR points for 11th place not explicitly stated but derived from individual placements ) Impact of Graduating Seniors (Class of 2025 - Will NOT return for Fall 2025 XC): Mia Perez, a top performer (1st in 800m - 2:07.60, 5th in 1600m - 4:47.18 at 2025 5A State Track), is listed as Class of 2025 and would be a significant loss. Other key contributors like Brady Solansky (Class of 2028), Lilly Koenig (Class of 2026), Skyler Fonseca (Class of 2028), Aubrey Pozzi (Class of 2028), and Addison Knibbe (Class of 2028) are expected to return. Parker Julian's graduation year is not explicitly stated but ran 12:22.87 in the 3200m in 2025. Key Returning Runners for Fall 2025 & 2025 Track PBs: Smithson Valley is poised to return a very strong and young core. Table: Smithson Valley - Projected Key Returners for 2025 XC Runner Name Projected 2025-26 Grade Notable 2024 XC 5k Times (NXR/State) 2025 Spring Track 1600m PB 2025 Spring Track 3200m PB Snippet Source(s) for Grade & Track Lilly Koenig Junior 18:37.4 (State) / 18:49.2 (NXR) 5:12.09 (2025 State) 10:31.62 (2025 State) Brady Solansky Sophomore 18:10.5 (State) / NXR time not in snippets 4:57.66 10:45.56 Skyler Fonseca Sophomore 19:33.6 (NXR) / State time not in snippets 5:08.32 Not in snippets Aubrey Pozzi Sophomore 19:37.8 (NXR) / State time not in snippets 5:31.12 11:01.32 Addison Knibbe Sophomore 20:01.0 (NXR) / State time not in snippets 5:35.24 11:53.24 Parker Julian Grade TBD 20:12.0 (NXR) / State time not in snippets Not in snippets 12:22.87 (2025) Export to Sheets Analysis of Returning Core: Smithson Valley returns an exceptionally talented and young group. Lilly Koenig demonstrated elite capability by placing 2nd in the 3200m (10:31.62) and 4th in the 800m (2:12.08) at the 2025 UIL 5A State Track meet. Brady Solansky also had a phenomenal freshman track season with PBs of 4:57.66 in the 1600m and 10:45.56 in the 3200m. Skyler Fonseca (5:08 1600m), Aubrey Pozzi (11:01 3200m), and Addison Knibbe (11:53 3200m) provide strong, developing depth. Even with the likely graduation of Mia Perez, who was a standout (2:07.60 800m State Champ, 4:47.18 1600m at State), the returning talent is significant. Insights from 2025 Track Season: The 2025 track season was a massive success for Smithson Valley's distance squad. Koenig's 10:31 3200m and Perez's 2:07 800m are national-caliber marks. Solansky's sub-4:58 1600m as a freshman is outstanding. The progression of Fonseca, Pozzi, and Knibbe further solidifies their pack strength. This level of performance across multiple athletes, especially underclassmen, indicates a program on a sharp upward trajectory. Their success in the 5A classification, which is highly competitive in Texas, is a strong indicator of their regional potential. Early Outlook for NXR South 2025: Smithson Valley (Ranger XC Club) is a very strong contender for a top-two finish at NXR South in 2025. Their UIL 5A State Championship in 2024, coupled with the outstanding track seasons from their returning core (even accounting for Perez's graduation), positions them as a team with immense potential. Their youth means they have significant room for continued improvement. They will be a formidable force and should be considered alongside the top 6A Texas programs and Rogers (AR) as a team capable of qualifying for NXN. Their 11th place at NXR South in 2024 with a young team that then had a stellar track season suggests they are ready to make a significant jump in the regional standings.
4. Projecting the Podium: NXR South 2025 Top 2 Probabilities Forecasting outcomes in high school cross country a year in advance is inherently speculative, yet analysis of returning talent, program history, and track and field progression provides a strong foundation for informed projections. Comparative Strength Analysis: Based on the detailed team profiles, several programs stand out. Flower Mound (TX) returns an elite #1 in Adeline Bennett and a deep, improving pack. Rogers (AR) boasts the reigning NXR South individual champion, Lilly Beshears, and a trio of rapidly improving underclassmen in Kayla Eggers and the Scudder twins, all of whom posted stellar 2025 track times. Bridgeland (TX) is led by national-caliber talent Rowan Saacke and returns significant depth from a team that narrowly missed NXN qualification in 2024. Smithson Valley (TX) won the UIL 5A State title and returns a very young and exceptionally talented core that excelled in the 2025 track season. Southlake Carroll (TX) faces the loss of its top two from NXR 2024 but has a strong program pedigree and returning pack depth; their true potential hinges on track improvements from this core (data currently missing). Katy (TX) and The Woodlands (TX) are perennially strong Texas programs with solid returning runners who could challenge if their packs develop further. Discussion of Influencing Factors: Beyond returning talent, several external factors will shape the 2025 NXR South landscape. The impact of incoming freshmen is an unknown variable that can significantly alter team dynamics. Strong summer training is paramount for cross country success and can lead to substantial performance jumps. Finally, injuries to key athletes are an unfortunate but real possibility that can derail even the most promising team's aspirations.
Detailed Rationale for Percentages: Flower Mound's slight edge is attributed to their established dynasty, Bennett's individual prowess, and the proven depth that consistently reloads. Rogers earns a high percentage due to the combination of an individual NXR champion in Beshears and the dramatic track improvements of their young supporting pack, suggesting a significant team leap is likely. Bridgeland is close behind, powered by Saacke's national-level talent and a highly motivated, deep returning squad. Smithson Valley joins the top contenders due to their 5A State title, the exceptional track seasons of their very young returning core (Koenig, Solansky), and their potential for a significant jump from their 2024 NXR finish, even with the loss of Perez. Southlake Carroll's chances are strong but tempered by the current lack of 2025 track data for their key returners; positive results there could elevate their probability. Katy and The Woodlands are formidable Texas programs with the potential to break into the top two if their returning runners show exceptional development. Lovejoy, while strong and capable of a top-10 regional finish, faces a more challenging path to an NXN bid against the current front-runners. The NXR South region is characterized by its depth, particularly from Texas schools. However, the rise of programs like Rogers (AR) and the emergence of a strong Smithson Valley (TX) team demonstrate that talent development across the entire region is robust. The battle for the qualifying spots, particularly the second one, appears to be exceptionally tight, with multiple teams possessing the potential to peak at the right time. This sets the stage for a compelling and potentially unpredictable NXR South Championship in 2025.
Rogers 1 to 6 have gone 4:48, 4:56, 4:59, 5:00, 5:02, and 5:07 with the #1 and #6 runners just now getting healthy.
4:48, 4:50, 4:59, 5:00, 5:00, and 5:07 but their 3200s are most impressive 10:28, 10:38, 10:47, 11:09 for Lily and the triplets.....this team is STACKED.