Don’t down vote this. it is true and you slow people know it deep in your soul.
Expectations and standards.
Nearly all dudes with:
1) A running - efficient build (not an offensive lineman)
2) Solid Neoromuscular coordination (speed capabilities- example: could also make the soccer, football, or basketball team because they can move well and punch people if necessary).
If the above is present…. Most dudes can run 16:45 or faster with discipline, motivation, will, and solid coaching x 2-3 years.
This explains the culture and success you have observed. Teams slower than this have poor coaching and / or a poor running culture in their community that the coach has yet to overcome.
Your assumptions eliminate a large chunk of the population. It’s akin to saying “anyone who is over 6’2” and athletic can make a Varsity HS basketball team.” Very few people meet both those criteria, and even then, the statement is debatable.
As I said earlier, I trained with a large running club for several years, an imperfect but better sample size of the general population than a Varsity HS or College XC team. I saw plenty of people in their 20s and 30s run decent mileage with structured workouts and come nowhere near 16:45 for 5k. Sure, many could’ve run faster if they: (1) had started earlier in life; (2) didn’t have to balance running with career/family; (3) focused exclusively on the 5k (many of them were chasing a BQ).
However, I doubt any of those things would’ve turned a 19:xx runner into a 16:xx runner. These “talentless” people were still motivated and durable enough to run decent mileage and workouts without breaking down; many were better suited for the marathon, running 3:10 or thereabouts. Someone truly talentless would’ve been perpetually injured and/or struggled to break 4 hours for a marathon (I know a few of these types).
And then you have guys like the former soccer player who ran sub-16 off minimal mileage and later a 3:50 1500m. He was clearly a genetic outlier; probably could’ve gotten a nice track scholarship had he run in his youth (he was over 30 when he ran that 1500m PR).
Nearly all can improve through consistent training, but I think a 16:45 5k is out of reach for most, even the hypothetical “reasonably athletic Average Joe.”
I agree. Having coached high school cross country for 20 years, I have seen kids run 15:30 who were the laziest on the team and I have seen kids run 24:00 who put everything into the sport for 4 years. And these kids are the self selected 5% of the high school population.
Here's a good example of someone with zero speed, a guy I ran with. Had zero explosive ability, just bad genetics. He trained hard and ran way more than me. He had years of training under his belt with steady improvement and lifting and all that. He baaaarely broke 5:00 and 16:00. I have no idea what his 400PR is but I's guess it would be like 60–62. Meanwhile, I ran less but had a lot more speed. I could go under 5:00 for reps. I broke 16:00 just to see if I could.
Speed kills. It's a prerequisite to faster distance times. Pretending otherwise is to just deny physiology.
You think running 60-62 seconds in the 400 is "bad genetics"? Wow, welcome to LetsRun.
That guy with "bad genetics" is like superman to me. I ran 4 years in high school at one the better distance running schools in California. Loved running, and would bet I ran more on the side than even our best runners. I kept running until injuries shut me down in my 40s.
But I was never able to break 70 sec in the quarter mile until after high school. As such breaking 5 minutes in the mile was out of the question. Training as hard as I did I never broke 18 minutes for 3 miles. Yes, that means I finished dead last in most of my races, frequently by a large amount. But I loved running, and all my close friends were on the team, and they were very supportive.
I still consider myself fairly athletic. Many, many people could never, ever, ever break 70 seconds in 400, even after 10 years of training, diet and focus. We had some guys on team that were slower than me, but they all quit within a few months. 400m in 60 seconds is not bad genetics.
In the context of competitive college running, it's bad genetics. In the context of Joe Schmoe, it's a fine time. The same way someone who runs 10.5 is a slouch on the international scene, they'd be superman to me and almost every single person alive.
No need to get offended, comparison is the thief of joy.