If Chaptegei and Aregawi make a fast paced race i think Jakob won't be able to follow them. They can ran the 5.000 in 12.35-12.40 while Jakob never ever have run that fast on that distance. Never even closely.
Well there is no way those two guys are going out and doing that (running 60.5's from the gun in a world final), BUT, I believe there is one thing they could do which I think could hurt Jakob a lot and that is make the pace fluctuate. I think there are a number of guys in that (potential) race tough enough to put multiple surges down throughout the race which really hurts a guy like Jakob who likes that pace and rhythm consistent and at a comfortable point below his anaerobic threshold. Aregawi is as tough as they come - I think he in particular could drop a 59 in the middle of the race just to f--k with the tempo then back off and do it again.
Well put it this way, even if it's a consistent 13.00 pace for 4000m every single one of those guys not named Jakob are dead to rights in the last 800m.
(sorry I know it's not a Silesia related topic but thought this was an interesting other question)
Why do you think Jakob is more vulnerable to pace changes than the others? I’m not disputing this, but simply asking. Dropping a 59 here and there is tough on everybody, no?
This post was edited 41 seconds after it was posted.
El Bakkali always trained in high altitude at Ifran (town which is close to his hometown Fez).
According to his latest LRC interview he train at 1600m altitude.
It's there were Anas Essayi was training while pursuing his studies at University Al Akhawayn. I think his recent improvement comes from the fact he returned training at Ifran which explain the choice of meeting in France.
This post was edited 23 seconds after it was posted.
This looks very good for a new Jakob PB. No Katir or Tim means that no one are likely to follow him if he goes sub 3:28 pace. He can thus risk more, and won't have to save that much of a kick to ensure a win.
Stewie seems to approach 3:31-32 shape, and should hopefully be able to hold at least 1100m at 3:27 pace if he really is pacing this. That would be huge.
If Jakob's management bother to both have Katir delisted and hire McSweyn to pace, I believe Jakob must be in shape to target sub 3:27 and close to 2:46 for 1200. Let's hope for good conditions!
Rumour has it that Stewie will try to hold at least 1200m (podcast “In the long run”) in a decent pace… Weather forecast: 29 / 30 degrees C. Wind: 3 m/s…
Your comment about Katir: See other posters input and comments…
This post was edited 6 minutes after it was posted.
Well there is no way those two guys are going out and doing that (running 60.5's from the gun in a world final), BUT, I believe there is one thing they could do which I think could hurt Jakob a lot and that is make the pace fluctuate. I think there are a number of guys in that (potential) race tough enough to put multiple surges down throughout the race which really hurts a guy like Jakob who likes that pace and rhythm consistent and at a comfortable point below his anaerobic threshold. Aregawi is as tough as they come - I think he in particular could drop a 59 in the middle of the race just to f--k with the tempo then back off and do it again.
Well put it this way, even if it's a consistent 13.00 pace for 4000m every single one of those guys not named Jakob are dead to rights in the last 800m.
(sorry I know it's not a Silesia related topic but thought this was an interesting other question)
Why do you think Jakob is more vulnerable to pace changes than the others? I’m not disputing this, but simply asking. Dropping a 59 here and there is tough on everybody, no?
Well it's a hypothesis but it's based on this.
Jakobs lack of anaerobic power (basically his ability to quickly accelerate and sprint) isn't really a secret. He is one of the best we have ever seen (maybe the best) at having a super high anaerobic threshold he can sustain over long distances (up to the 5000m at the moment). It's why almost every run he runs - even the 1500m, he splits very even through 800, then slowly increases speed until he is at his threshold right at the end of the race. Here are his Oslo splits - 55.8, 1.51.8 (56.0) 2.46.91 (55.1), 41.04 (54.7 pace) - a perfect execution from him.
It's the primary reason Wightman was able to get the jump on him in Eugene - Jakob wasn't fatigued enough to not react, but it's not in his physiology to be able to effectively. Small injections of pace above the threshold pace are better suited for guys like Wightman who, for example, can run well under 1.44 for 800m - they have the anaerobic power to make the moves, withstand the impact and continue. Guys like Jakob struggle.
So it is tough on everybody - but some are just better equipped to handle it that's all. When you see a guy like Aragawi be able to really drop the hammer and accelerate/markedly pick up his leg speed, that's an indication he has that power and ability, similar to Wightmann albeit at a different distance.
Just an opinion but we have had a small insight into the way you beat Jakob at his peak.
Tsegay scratched the 3,000. Now unfortunate that no Monson/Cranny as they’d be competitive
Who do you expect to win it now? Lemlem is the reigning 3k indoor world champ, Rengeruk seems to be in the form of her life (8:25/14:23 PBs this season), and 3k might be the ideal distance for Freweyni with her 3:56/14:23 PBs.
Who do you expect to win it now? Lemlem is the reigning 3k indoor world champ, Rengeruk seems to be in the form of her life (8:25/14:23 PBs this season), and 3k might be the ideal distance for Freweyni with her 3:56/14:23 PBs.
I’d take: 1. Freweyni 2. Rengeruk 3. Lemlem
I’d agree with this but wouldn’t be surprised if Ethiopia goes 1-2 and Rengeruk struggles…a lot of travel and quick turnover for Kenyans.
Remains to be seen if the rumors about Stewart McSweyn being a superpacer are true or not.
McSweyn is confirmed as the third pacer. Sowinski has been asked to deliver 1K in 2:18 and McSweyn takes over from there. This is going to be the most interesting non-Championship 1500 in a very long time.
Thanks to everyone who entered so far, reminder to enter the fantasy league before 10am tomorrow -- and sorry I haven't updated the women's 3k / men's 100 with the withdrawals yet, been sick as a dog but you can make your picks with that in mind or just not worry about it b/c the scoring system won't penalize you if you pick an athlete that DNSes.
Well there is no way those two guys are going out and doing that (running 60.5's from the gun in a world final), BUT, I believe there is one thing they could do which I think could hurt Jakob a lot and that is make the pace fluctuate. I think there are a number of guys in that (potential) race tough enough to put multiple surges down throughout the race which really hurts a guy like Jakob who likes that pace and rhythm consistent and at a comfortable point below his anaerobic threshold. Aregawi is as tough as they come - I think he in particular could drop a 59 in the middle of the race just to f--k with the tempo then back off and do it again.
Well put it this way, even if it's a consistent 13.00 pace for 4000m every single one of those guys not named Jakob are dead to rights in the last 800m.
(sorry I know it's not a Silesia related topic but thought this was an interesting other question)
Why do you think Jakob is more vulnerable to pace changes than the others? I’m not disputing this, but simply asking. Dropping a 59 here and there is tough on everybody, no?
The thing is it's Jakob vs the rest of the field. So different guys could surge multiple times, maybe sacrifying their chances (not on purpose). Jakob needs to respond everytime. Somebody else following that having a more linear effort and no front run might be able to outkick jakob then.
Thanks to everyone who entered so far, reminder to enter the fantasy league before 10am tomorrow -- and sorry I haven't updated the women's 3k / men's 100 with the withdrawals yet, been sick as a dog but you can make your picks with that in mind or just not worry about it b/c the scoring system won't penalize you if you pick an athlete that DNSes.
Why do you think Jakob is more vulnerable to pace changes than the others? I’m not disputing this, but simply asking. Dropping a 59 here and there is tough on everybody, no?
The thing is it's Jakob vs the rest of the field. So different guys could surge multiple times, maybe sacrifying their chances (not on purpose). Jakob needs to respond everytime. Somebody else following that having a more linear effort and no front run might be able to outkick jakob then.
I think it’s going to be extremely hard to beat Jakob, but one possible scenario is that Jakob shoots himself in the foot with overconfidence—specifically, he’s playing it cool back in 9th place when someone at the front makes a big move, and Jakob is slow to react because he assumes it’s just a surge, and next thing you know he needs to run 4:53 for the last 2k in order to beat the guy at the front who’s about to split 4:56, or whatever the specifics may be.
I know, pretty specific and not something you can count on as his competition. Like I said, he’s going to be hard to beat.
Edit: just for some context/historical precedent, there were multiple times over the Mo Farah years when someone would surge and Farah would hang back, take a measured approach and the leader would back off and come back to him, with Farah having expended less energy than the surgers. If someone on the Kiplimo/Aregawi level could actually just keep it going after getting the jump, who knows.
This post was edited 5 minutes after it was posted.
The thing is it's Jakob vs the rest of the field. So different guys could surge multiple times, maybe sacrifying their chances (not on purpose). Jakob needs to respond everytime. Somebody else following that having a more linear effort and no front run might be able to outkick jakob then.
I think it’s going to be extremely hard to beat Jakob, but one possible scenario is that Jakob shoots himself in the foot with overconfidence—specifically, he’s playing it cool back in 9th place when someone at the front makes a big move, and Jakob is slow to react because he assumes it’s just a surge, and next thing you know he needs to run 4:53 for the last 2k in order to beat the guy at the front who’s about to split 4:56, or whatever the specifics may be.
I know, pretty specific and not something you can count on as his competition. Like I said, he’s going to be hard to beat.
Edit: just for some context/historical precedent, there were multiple times over the Mo Farah years when someone would surge and Farah would hang back, take a measured approach and the leader would back off and come back to him, with Farah having expended less energy than the surgers. If someone on the Kiplimo/Aregawi level could actually just keep it going after getting the jump, who knows.
Someone of Girma caliber is the only medic for Jakob provided he focus in the distance. No strategy asked and pure ability.
The people when they become biased start downvoting without having the decency of augmenting. But wait until you see the truth by your own eyes and fall from your clouds of illusions.
This post was edited 39 seconds after it was posted.
Men’s 100m will have Kerley v Charleston for US interest, along with Simbine and A. Blake for variety.
Pretty cool that we also get to see Eseme and Austin, but it looks like Thompson has withdrawn.
Women’s 100m will be Jackson vs ScR, surrounded by a various supporting cast. Ta Lou has withdrawn. We’ll see how they each handle the travel and the pressure.
Again, where is Alfred?? Maybe they have no travel budget for her. She is a giant wildcard.
Also, men’s 400m has WVN vs Dos Santos vs a bunch of Americans…and Samukonga! Yeah this looks to be a super-interesting race. Am pulling for Samukonga and WVN down the finishing straight💪
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