Let´s talk again after the final!
Timothy and Jakob haven´t raced seriously yet.
I think Hocker must improve his 5000m significantly to come close to Jakob, also in the 1500m.
But on the other hand: I consider Hocker a realistic medal contender already here in Tokyo.
rojo wrote:
But he hasn't run fast... Fair enough but
His pb is now 3:33.....
Our USA champ is getting better and he did it on the world stage. Is this a sign of great things to come?
joed|rt wrote:
The fast semis (OR in the 2nd heat) likely means a tactical final.
every race is "tactical" but if you're using "tactical" as a euphemism for "slow" then i think you're in for a surprise. it suits mcsweyn for the race to be fast from the gun; it suits the likes of cheruiyot and ingebrigtsen for it to be fast or have a long drive for home; it suits kerr for there to be a long drive. whether it's a 3:28 cheruiyot masterclass or 1:47 last 800 from the big guns, it's v hard to see it playing into hocker's hands.
this said, he might be in 3:29 shape himself and furiously kick his way to medal.
Wise old man wrote:
"Why does everybody keep insisting Hocker can’t run faster? In every major race and now in 2 rounds he’s run fast enough. No reason to think this won’t continue in the final. We simply don’t yet know his top end, but he looked so comfortable today, no reason to think what we saw today is all he’s got. He certainly can win the final off a slow pace, but maybe he can off a fast pace too. The others in the race don’t know either, but I’m sure they are concerned about him."
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I am positive on Hocker thinking he can go faster in the final but not 5 seconds faster which will probably be necessary to win.
What do I say?
I say he's going to need another PB in the final, one under 3:30, to get a medal. That said, as bad as this current Olympic men's team is, I hope he wins, because we are completely under-performing for our population number.
If he can stay out of trouble and not be bothered by the contact, he may be top 4.
joed|rt wrote:
rrrtty wrote:
Good runner who is an Antivaxx frootloop
Or maybe he just trusts actual data on the zero benefit game (and increased incidence of adverse reactions) of vaccinating those with previous COVID:
https://www.news-medical.net/news/20210608/No-point-vaccinating-those-whoe28099ve-had-COVID-19-Findings-of-Cleveland-Clinic-study.aspxYou must be one of those people that still uses condoms when your wife is already pregnant.
pre-print. Nothing conclusive.
Why would Hocker want to help anyone? It is not the American way.....
It seems unlikely that Hocker will win the gold. The most logical choice would be Tim or Jakob. Still rooting for Hocker nonetheless -- he is a very exciting runner to watch.
The two fields were excellent. Qualifying was not going to be easy and both races went much quicker than usual in the Olympics, with 3:33 and 3:31 OR. Centro had bad luck to get into the 3:31 heat because he might have qualified out of the other heat. He is just not a time trialer. Willis ran a fine race at 38 and showed a lot of class immediately congratulating the guy ahead of him. I was very impressed with Kipsang. He looks like a very likely medalist and could win gold. Tim went out in 41/54, I think, and then slowed it to 60 (1:41)/62 (1:56), which is the kind of race I think he will try in the finals, go out quick, ease off and then try to pick it back up in the last lap, which is similar to what he's done several times against Jakob since the Lausanne race a few years ago. Jakob will need McSweyn to maintain pace to 1:53/2:49 and then we will see if Jakob has closed the gap because Tim is ready to run 3:28 again and this track seems to be faster than most (the designed at Mondo claims it is 1-2% faster, although faster than what he did not say).
Should be fun to see a bunch of kickers if it somehow turns into a 2:54-55 1200m, but they'll all get nice pr's in a 3:27 race if the time trialers really push. Should be fun. And now we know for a fact beyond dispute that Cole Hocker is a 3:33 guy. I think that 3:29-30 is a possibility, but he's got to recognize that putting himself in the top five between 800m and 1200m is key to medaling. If the pace lags, you scoot up a bunch of places. Otherwise, he'll be kicking for a lesser medal.
We may be underperforming this time out--COVID has thrown a lot of people out of their normal routines and a lot of training facilities were locked up in the past year and a half--but we're winning the medal count and as of yesterday, the U.S. track team had far more medals than second place, Poland, with 16.
Passant wrote:
Even the young Moroccan A. Sadikki run faster than both Americans with 3:33:59.
It's a bit unfortunate for this new generation of 1500m Moroccan runners.
Essayi probably fall from inexperience and some naivety in the first round.
There are a lot of talented runners that got unlucky in the Olympic games.
But I'm not counting in the dust...
The more deserving runners to win are:
1. Cheruuiyot
2. Kipsang
3. Ingerbrigsten.
Kipsang?!
Jake Wightman. Fifth fastest in this Olympic cycle, only behind Tim, Jakob, Katir and Manangoi, (thus ahead of McSweyn and the rest of the finalists). Just crushed his semi final. Comfortably beat Kipsang in Hengelo earlier in the year. Multiple Diamond League wins. A full second faster than Kipsang over 800m (only Cheruiyot and Lewandowski faster among current milers).
But then again, "deserving" is meaningless in advance of the race.
Easy1 wrote:
Jakob C. Hocker wrote:
Had Hocker been in the second semi, he'd have still run tactically savvy. He's been so composed and technically consistent this year, level of competition notwithstanding. He closed in 25.8 (52.8).
He is up against guys that can close in 49 if they had to. Some of the 1500m runners he is racing against can run sub 3:30 with a 51 final 400m remember that. The final will not be tactical. I will bet Big Money it is going to take a New World Record to win it and Hocker isn't in that league! You heard it right hear El G's record is gone in the final!!!
The big question now is, with the semi’s being so fast, will the final be a sit and kick affair or is current crop of runners really that good the final will be sub 3:27? There are so many fantastic runners in the final that the medalist will be the ones who have their day of days. I’m not even going to try and make a prediction.
jeb wrote:
Centro looked good and positioned himself well, just didn’t have the lungs for the last 100m.
Why would you say that? I only watched live, so I haven't scrutinized his tactics, but my distinct recollection is that it was his worst positioning of any race he's ever run. Here was in lane four on one turn and Lane two for much of the race. Other than Hasan, I can't think of anyone who can succeed running like that in a 3:31-2 race.
Easy1 wrote:
Jakob C. Hocker wrote:
Had Hocker been in the second semi, he'd have still run tactically savvy. He's been so composed and technically consistent this year, level of competition notwithstanding. He closed in 25.8 (52.8).
He is up against guys that can close in 49 if they had to. Some of the 1500m runners he is racing against can run sub 3:30 with a 51 final 400m remember that. The final will not be tactical. I will bet Big Money it is going to take a New World Record to win it and Hocker isn't in that league! You heard it right hear El G's record is gone in the final!!!
No one is closing in 49. That is nonsense. Rio wasn't closed in 49... How many sub-3:30 guys were in a race that ended up being won in 3:50?
Who has closed in 49?
I think if the "players" screw around with tactics and overextend themselves and Hocker maintains contact he could absolutely medal in 3:30.5 give or take, assuming a fast pace. At this point I just don't see any reason to doubt him.
He is scared to death of hocker…knows if he’s around at the bell, he will make him look like a still image in the last 100m so he’s gonna try and 3:27 it with Cheriyuot who also looked less than his perfect self
Imagine rivals colluding to stop you
Cole hocker is a dangerous man
I don't see there being a fast final after the times they ran in the semis. The guys from the 2nd heat are likely going to be dragging. The slowest time qualifier was 3:32.86, which is a record for the Olympics or World Championships as far as I can tell, as semis typically are not run that fast. I think the Kenyans pushed the pace in the semis in an attempt to keep the dangerous kickers out of the final and to fatigue the legs of some of the others to make the final favor runners with a stronger base (and they got Centro and a few others out this way). I'm hoping Hocker's 5k ability carries him through the final and he keeps proving the nattering nabobs of negativism on this site wrong. He has performed admirably thus far. Go USA.
Hocker has a 3:50 mile time . . . indoors. We all saw his massive kick at US champs. Sure, Hocker has no pro career and his PBs are pretty slow, but that is just because he came in 1st at US champs for his 3:35 PB and did not have to run any faster. Coming into the OGs, Hocker is unproven against international competition, but everything coming up to this moment indicated that Hocker has a ton of talent and has the potential to run low 3:30 or kick with the best of them. I am not at all shocked by how well Hocker is doing. I think he can run 3:30 at the final and possibly medal if the race doesn't get too crazy fast.
Phil Ken Sebben wrote:
I think if the "players" screw around with tactics and overextend themselves and Hocker maintains contact he could absolutely medal in 3:30.5 give or take, assuming a fast pace. At this point I just don't see any reason to doubt him.
cole hocker is an extraordinary runner, truly world class, but it would still be surprising if he did this. only 49 runners have broken 3:30.5 ever; it's more than a second faster than the olympic record; i've never someone run with his (undeniably effective) shuffle-then-sprint style at this level.
joed|rt wrote:
I don't see there being a fast final after the times they ran in the semis. The guys from the 2nd heat are likely going to be dragging. The slowest time qualifier was 3:32.86, which is a record for the Olympics or World Championships as far as I can tell, as semis typically are not run that fast. I think the Kenyans pushed the pace in the semis in an attempt to keep the dangerous kickers out of the final and to fatigue the legs of some of the others to make the final favor runners with a stronger base (and they got Centro and a few others out this way). I'm hoping Hocker's 5k ability carries him through the final and he keeps proving the nattering nabobs of negativism on this site wrong. He has performed admirably thus far. Go USA.
Interesting take. Everyone is talking about this being a barn-burner final but you may be on to something here. Hocker actually looks like he's having fun. He just PR'd so who wouldn't be thrilled. These are intangibles, I get it, but Hocker is trucking along after such a long year. It *feels* like crescendo time.
Precious Roy wrote:
Hocker has a 3:50 mile time . . . indoors. We all saw his massive kick at US champs. Sure, Hocker has no pro career and his PBs are pretty slow, but that is just because he came in 1st at US champs for his 3:35 PB and did not have to run any faster. Coming into the OGs, Hocker is unproven against international competition, but everything coming up to this moment indicated that Hocker has a ton of talent and has the potential to run low 3:30 or kick with the best of them. I am not at all shocked by how well Hocker is doing. I think he can run 3:30 at the final and possibly medal if the race doesn't get too crazy fast.
Yup yup.
lemmy from motorhead wrote:
Phil Ken Sebben wrote:
I think if the "players" screw around with tactics and overextend themselves and Hocker maintains contact he could absolutely medal in 3:30.5 give or take, assuming a fast pace. At this point I just don't see any reason to doubt him.
cole hocker is an extraordinary runner, truly world class, but it would still be surprising if he did this. only 49 runners have broken 3:30.5 ever; it's more than a second faster than the olympic record; i've never someone run with his (undeniably effective) shuffle-then-sprint style at this level.
What about Hocker's season(s) hasn't been surprising so far? The duration? The times? The veteran-tier composure and tactics? The only thing "missing" are the blazing fast times the morans around here have been harping on about. Hocker has the rest in spades, which I truly believe will lead to medals and times in the near future and going forward.
Potato Tim runs like Quasimodo out there but it gets the job done. Sometimes track isn't pretty.