COLE MF HOCKER!!!!!!

j bomb wrote:

It looked to me like Centro felt he had it wrapped up and didn’t fully commit everything to his kick. What was his last 400? Hocker had the momentum when he pulled even and it was too late to accelerate. He just edged him out.

nah centro always looks smooth, like he's not fully committed. It's just how he runs...doesn't mean he is or isn't at 10/10ths.

well,, wrote:

uugbfiudb wrote:

Additionally you all remember the 1500 at Rio right?? Kerr or Jakob can't take the pace out too fast because whichever does will be outkicked by the other. Championship racing is always jogging until the last lap kick, it's why Mo won a double double, and I think Cole Hocker is in as good a place as anybody to win under those circumstances.

Always slow?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u1iskst_ckwhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I6Q4567VD6Uhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UVzdFUMQN6M

yeah I think more distance runners need to run and absorb the message of Moneyball.

Too many in running accept the conventional wisdom and don't try to look at things fresh.

For some leading from the front is the right move.

alphas only wrote:

Hocker was boxed in the entire race and he still got it done.

This! I had to replay the part where Hocker moved past Engels from the inside like four times.

CraigEngelsFan420 wrote:

truthman432 wrote:

it’s all a sham. Craig deserved the top 3 but everyone colluded against him. Those people who boxed him in should have their results dq’ed for those obvious moves to ruin the future Olympic champion’s chances of making the team. Another great example of the failing state of ustaf

+1

Interesting theory but needs more explaining. Could have just been honest racing and no collusion.

widefootboy wrote:

alphas only wrote:

Hocker was boxed in the entire race and he still got it done.

This! I had to replay the part where Hocker moved past Engels from the inside like four times.

Seriously. Watching that race, even knowing he won, with 1/2 lap to go I was thinking, "He's trapped. No way Hocker gets out and up front. " But he did. It's amazing what you can pull off when you've got more strength in the tank than anyone else left on the track.

Great race, Hocker.

c7runner7 wrote:

AP5000 wrote:

421 men have run the 1500 faster than Hocker. Let's ease up on how incredible he is talk.

No one beat him today.

Don’t worry about AP. Nearly all of his prior posts are him complaining or being bitter. He’s your typical insecure guy who is unhappy with his own life so he has to try and bring down others.

AP5000 wrote:

That gear shift is meaningless when they drop him. Do you really think Jakob, who can at a minimum run 3:28, is going to run a slow race and risk get outkicked? Why would he do that when he knows for a fact he's a good 5 seconds faster than Hocker. He'll just run him into the ground.

Yes, the classic racing strategy that LRC posters post about but never actually happens in a championship race bc it's a moronic strategy.

zcxvzxcv wrote:

He's got it on the rankings but it is just absurd to not accept a 3:50 mile as a qualifier. That converts to 3:32.96. 2 seconds under the qualifying time on conversion is not accepted. Just bizarre.

Nobody is denying that Hocker is exciting, or that he shows promise. What we are denying is that Hocker has delivered on that promise. So far, he hasn't. As has been said over and over, promise is easy -- there are plenty of young Americans who've been as impressive as Hocker so far. What's hard is to deliver on that promise, to consistently run at the next level. There are plenty of examples of Americans who have failed to deliver at the next level.

Take the 3:50 mile that has got everyone so excited. In 2019, Johny Gregorek ran a 3:49 mile for the indoor AR. Was it bizarre and unacceptable to leave him off the team? His record says it wasn't.

In 2010, Andrew Wheating ran 1:44/3:30 times Hocker can only dream of running. Yet Wheating only ran under 3:35 once after that.

Even when runners end up delivering on their promise, it isn't automatic. Take Jenny Simpson. She stunned us when she ran a 3:59.90 in 2009. She didn't run under 4:00 again for FIVE years.

And so on.

good kidd madd city wrote:

AP5000 wrote:

That gear shift is meaningless when they drop him. Do you really think Jakob, who can at a minimum run 3:28, is going to run a slow race and risk get outkicked? Why would he do that when he knows for a fact he's a good 5 seconds faster than Hocker. He'll just run him into the ground.

Yes, the classic racing strategy that LRC posters post about but never actually happens in a championship race bc it's a moronic strategy.

You can say hard faces don't happen in 1500 finals but winning times:

1999: 3:27

1991: 3:32

2017: 3:33

2015: 3:34

2019: 3:29

So I'm not sure you are correct.

agip wrote:

good kidd madd city wrote:

Yes, the classic racing strategy that LRC posters post about but never actually happens in a championship race bc it's a moronic strategy.

You can say hard faces don't happen in 1500 finals but winning times:

1999: 3:27

1991: 3:32

2017: 3:33

2015: 3:34

2019: 3:29

So I'm not sure you are correct.

how about the olympic final? people can say worlds are just as competitive and they absolutely are, but casuals only watch the olympics and that def plays into the heads of the athletes. to your peers a gold at worlds is probably on par with a gold at the olympics, but to a casual (99% of people that only watch T&F during an olympic year) the latter is all that matters. imagine jakob going alone at 328 pace, blowing up and everyone in the world thinking hes a scrub because they never heard of him before and that is the only impression they will have of him.

te5n1k wrote:

agip wrote:

You can say hard faces don't happen in 1500 finals but winning times:

1999: 3:27

1991: 3:32

2017: 3:33

2015: 3:34

2019: 3:29

So I'm not sure you are correct.

how about the olympic final? people can say worlds are just as competitive and they absolutely are, but casuals only watch the olympics and that def plays into the heads of the athletes. to your peers a gold at worlds is probably on par with a gold at the olympics, but to a casual (99% of people that only watch T&F during an olympic year) the latter is all that matters. imagine jakob going alone at 328 pace, blowing up and everyone in the world thinking hes a scrub because they never heard of him before and that is the only impression they will have of him.

Olympic finals are also often fast so I'm still not sure it's right to say sit and kick is the way to win medals.

1984: 3:32

2000: 3:32

2004: 3:34

2008: 3:32

2012: 3:34

I see no reason to think a 3:29 person can't simply go out fast and outrun a 3:34 guy.

Honestly, if I were a 3:29 guy...I would do pretty much one thing in practice: learn how to run 3:32 day in day out no matter morning, evening, hot, cold, etc. fresh, after heats, etc. Be robotic about it and don't worry what others are doing. But that's not track orthodoxy, that's for sure.

I’m not a cole hocker fan in particular and was rooting for centro, but I think it’s absolutely crazy to think he’s “only” a 334-335 guy. He clearly had a huge amount left in the tank and has run massive negative splits in each of his last 2 finals, not to mention the 332-333 equivalent indoors. No mere 334-335 guy in the history of track has ever ran the kind of races cole has ran. Setting aside the final time and looking at the performances holistically, it’s very clear he’s in 330-331 shape today in a time trial type race, which is more or less the slowest PRs of anyone that has ever demonstrated the type of capability cole has (and many sub 330 guys through history would not have been able to replicate cole’s performance).

Like it or not, and despite not having the PR today to reflect it, cole is absolutely a world class 1500 runner and credible medal threat. I think in general, people need to stop obsessing over time trial PRs and utilize the eye test. As history has shown more often than not, its racing ability that wins medals, not PRs. Maybe he flames out in the heats after a long season, but I think a medal here would be less of a surprise than Manzano’s silver was heading into the 2012 olympics, as well as Centro’s first medals.

Everyone on the US team is capable of 332 imo. It def would make sense for the faster guys to push the pace, but at the risk of losing to each other and maybe blowing up and dropping out of a medal. Everyone thinks they have the best kick and not everyone can run their PB at the drop of a hat after a few prelims.

te5n1k wrote:

Everyone on the US team is capable of 332 imo. It def would make sense for the faster guys to push the pace, but at the risk of losing to each other and maybe blowing up and dropping out of a medal. Everyone thinks they have the best kick and not everyone can run their PB at the drop of a hat after a few prelims.

Let's not overthink this. Cole Hocker beat Craig Engels in a tactical 1500m race by 1.41 seconds with pretty much all of that in the last 150. Craig Engels ran 3:33.64 FTW recently and had a perfectly good race here. Cole is in no worse than 3:32 shape and probably 3:30-1 shape.

The big question mark for me is if he can maintain fitness/back-off-and-peak-again/stay hungry after so much rapid success. He's a racer through and through, finds a way to win when he shouldn't be able to (against the reigning Oly champ no less!). If the race is 3:34+ with a 50.x last 400, I put him at 80% to medal, and 50% to win gold. But if it's a 52 second last lap at 3:35+ with the real kicking not starting until 250 out, I think Hocker and Lewandowski are battling to the line, which is interesting because they are probably the youngest and oldest athletes in the final. Of course you can't sleep on Jakob, Kerr, or Weightman, or any African for that matter. Actually, I take back my prediction, I HAVE NO IDEA how this race is going to play out. But if Hocker is there with 300 to go, you can be sure it's gonna be one of the most exciting races of the games. I haven't been this stoked on US T&F since Solinsky's 26:59!

j bomb wrote:

It looked to me like Centro felt he had it wrapped up and didn’t fully commit everything to his kick. What was his last 400? Hocker had the momentum when he pulled even and it was too late to accelerate. He just edged him out.

He looked relaxed because he always looks relaxed. He was definitely going all out, and the fact he put that much distance on Nuguse and Engels should show you how good his kick was. Hocker was just better

Your expectations are ridiculous if you don’t think Hocker has delivered yet. He ran the 2nd fastest NCAA indoor mile time ever and backed it up with an impressive 15/3k double. Outdoors, he picked up where he left off with another NCAA title and now a national title as well. We know he can kick well in 3:35+ races, so his chances to make the Olympic final are solid. Even though he won’t win and probably won’t even medal, I don’t see how being one of the top guys in the world as a 20 year old would constitute not delivering.

No idea what point you’re trying to prove by bringing up Wheating and Gregorek. How many national titles do they have?

That should mile/3k obviously.

It's hilarious to me that people are calling Hocker a "3:35 guy."

Guys, this was the third race in a week, after the NCAA championships, after track season, in extreme heat... and the guy ran extra distance in a tactical race...and then kicked down the reigning gold medalist.

He can run faster than 3:35. That said, I wouldn't be surprised if the Oly finals are a similar type of race - tactical, with a finishing time around 3:33-3:35. I don't forsee anyone trying and succeeding to make it a 3:28-29 race.

Not saying Hocker will win or is a favorite, but I think he'll be in the mix.