oh yeah, and the Dow set another all time record today
oh yeah, and the Dow set another all time record today
agip wrote:
inquired mind wrote:This post is the epitome of why most people need professional investing advice. It shows a fundamental misunderstanding of how the market works.
__
wel...obviously many factors affect stock prices. Some think corporate earnings drive stock prices. It might surprise you that there is not much correlation between corp profits and stock prices, esp for time periods under 10 years.
http://www.fiendbear.com/Curmudgeon10.htmland there is not much correlation between consumer confidence and consumer spending.
much of what determines stock prices is what Flagpole is talking about - how interested people get in the stock market.
Which is hard to square with the 'this is not a gamble long term' description of the stock market.
Oh my. Like I stated about the previous poster. You have a fundamental misunderstanding of what drives markets. Please seek professional investing advice before you decide to invest.
do tell!
but keep in mind if you mention discounted cash flows, I may shoot myself in the head.
mellon wrote:
K5 wrote:Tis better to panic too early than too late.
You operate in PANIC mode? That explains alot.
I never cease to be amazed by the stupidity on display here.
inquired mind wrote:
This post is the epitome of why most people need professional investing advice. It shows a fundamental misunderstanding of how the market works.
Thinking that professional investment advice is helpful shows a fundamental misunderstanding of how things work.
agip wrote:
but keep in mind if you mention discounted cash flows, I may shoot myself in the head.
discounted cash flows, discounted cash flows, discounted cash flows.
agip wrote:
do tell!
I'm teaching one freshman level section next semester. I'd be happy to let you sit in on it, if you desire.
inquired mind wrote:
agip wrote:do tell!
I'm teaching one freshman level section next semester. I'd be happy to let you sit in on it, if you desire.
Discounted cash flows! I knew it! tell me...what discount rate do you use and what if there is no cash flow? And how do you estimate cash flows that are happening in teh future? Cause that must be some very valuable prediction equipment you have there. Possibly a time machine. And capex? and tax policy? and peers?
I have an MBA and have worked in investment mgmnt for 11 yrs, and I have, let's say, a full understanding of the limitations of academic thinking on the stock market.
inquired mind wrote:
Flagpole wrote:It's actually crazy how much longer we could continue to see an upward trend. Most of America still doesn't believe we are in anything other than a horrible economy, and there are still a LOT of potential investors who have money on the sidelines. This has shocked me. I do prefer a long steady climb though, so I'm not looking forward to the day when everyone and their brother is geeked about stocks...that will mean a big uptick for a short period of time followed by a large correction. When the market is smokin', I'll make sure just to put in my base minimum, and I won't throw in any extra until the enthusiasm begins to sour.
This post is the epitome of why most people need professional investing advice. It shows a fundamental misunderstanding of how the market works.
Good grief. Dude, INCORRECT! Go ahead and spell out to me how this one comment of mine on one aspect of stuff that affects the market shows a fundamental misunderstanding of the market. BS brother. I'm an EXPERT investor and know how the markets work.
do tell!
Well, if you want to have a CV fight...
Wharton MBA
14 years investment mgt experience at a top 3 investment firm (last 5 focused on international)
PhD in Applied Economics
...shall I go on?
inquired mind wrote:
Oh my. Like I stated about the previous poster. You have a fundamental misunderstanding of what drives markets. Please seek professional investing advice before you decide to invest.
You are full of it brother. Just because agip and I refer to ONE thing that affects the market (actually I mentioned a couple things), that doesn't mean we put all our eggs in that basket. Warren Buffett said, "Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies...they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy only when others are fearful."
This is what the two of us were referring to. Besides Buffett's observation, I have made the SAME observation...when the market starts to steam along, that's when everyone and their brother starts getting into it, and that can and DOES drive up a market for a short-term, often followed by a decent correction (10% or more).
It's easy to look at someone's post and simply say, "that shows a fundamental misunderstanding of how the markets work". It's another thing to put up some info that shows that YOU know something that I don't know. So far, all we know is that you DON'T know that investor involvement can and DOES help create bubbles that then often burst and that a bunch of money still sitting on the sidelines shows potential for the market going forward.
What you DO know, we don't yet know.
agip wrote:
I have an MBA and have worked in investment mgmnt for 11 yrs, and I have, let's say, a full understanding of the limitations of academic thinking on the stock market.
No. Let's say you have no understanding of the market. None.
MBA is a degree in the softest of the soft sciences. Few MBAs can handle actual science such as physics or math.
Investment management is the biggest con going today. Selling less than worthless "advice" (sales pitches in reality) for big bucks. if you had any decency you would be ashamed.
inquired mind wrote:
do tell!
Well, if you want to have a CV fight...
Wharton MBA
14 years investment mgt experience at a top 3 investment firm (last 5 focused on international)
PhD in Applied Economics
...shall I go on?
___
and with all that experience...you can't give us even the smallest clue about how the stock market works? Not even a tidbit?
Just curious. What do use to measure when "everybody and their brother" gets in the market?
Flagpole wrote:
inquired mind wrote:Oh my. Like I stated about the previous poster. You have a fundamental misunderstanding of what drives markets. Please seek professional investing advice before you decide to invest.
You are full of it brother. Just because agip and I refer to ONE thing that affects the market (actually I mentioned a couple things), that doesn't mean we put all our eggs in that basket. Warren Buffett said, "Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies...they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy only when others are fearful."
This is what the two of us were referring to. Besides Buffett's observation, I have made the SAME observation...when the market starts to steam along, that's when everyone and their brother starts getting into it, and that can and DOES drive up a market for a short-term, often followed by a decent correction (10% or more).
It's easy to look at someone's post and simply say, "that shows a fundamental misunderstanding of how the markets work". It's another thing to put up some info that shows that YOU know something that I don't know. So far, all we know is that you DON'T know that investor involvement can and DOES help create bubbles that then often burst and that a bunch of money still sitting on the sidelines shows potential for the market going forward.
What you DO know, we don't yet know.
Flagpole wrote:I'm an EXPERT investor and know how the markets work.
Cough...cough...b.s...cough...cough.
Pay attention wrote:
Pointing Out the Obvious wrote:Once in the market one cannot separate managing potential losses from managing potential rewards.
That is exactly what I'm talking about. Stops are a key tool in managing both.
Stops are an emotional crutch that come with an opportunity cost firmly attached.
curious jane wrote:
Just curious. What do use to measure when "everybody and their brother" gets in the market?
The best way of determining this is simply when the stock market is a hot topic of discussion at parties and folks are asking you or telling you about stock tips all the time then "everybody and their brother (and sister)" is getting into the market. If you want to sometimes be out of the market, that's the time.
It's quite scientific. What Flagpole does is use his couple of friends as a barometer. Like he does about the non-issue of unemployment. He doesn't know ANYONE who is unemployed who doesn't want to be. Therefore, the unemployment numbers are not a true indication of the job market. When all his friends are in the market (and their brothers) then he KNOWS everyone is in the market.
curious jane wrote:
Just curious. What do use to measure when "everybody and their brother" gets in the market?
Flagpole wrote:You are full of it brother. Just because agip and I refer to ONE thing that affects the market (actually I mentioned a couple things), that doesn't mean we put all our eggs in that basket. Warren Buffett said, "Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies...they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy only when others are fearful."
This is what the two of us were referring to. Besides Buffett's observation, I have made the SAME observation...when the market starts to steam along, that's when everyone and their brother starts getting into it, and that can and DOES drive up a market for a short-term, often followed by a decent correction (10% or more).
It's easy to look at someone's post and simply say, "that shows a fundamental misunderstanding of how the markets work". It's another thing to put up some info that shows that YOU know something that I don't know. So far, all we know is that you DON'T know that investor involvement can and DOES help create bubbles that then often burst and that a bunch of money still sitting on the sidelines shows potential for the market going forward.
What you DO know, we don't yet know.
Flagpole wrote:
inquired mind wrote:Oh my. Like I stated about the previous poster. You have a fundamental misunderstanding of what drives markets. Please seek professional investing advice before you decide to invest.
You are full of it brother. Just because agip and I refer to ONE thing that affects the market (actually I mentioned a couple things), that doesn't mean we put all our eggs in that basket. Warren Buffett said, "Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies...they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy only when others are fearful."
This is what the two of us were referring to. Besides Buffett's observation, I have made the SAME observation...when the market starts to steam along, that's when everyone and their brother starts getting into it, and that can and DOES drive up a market for a short-term, often followed by a decent correction (10% or more).
It's easy to look at someone's post and simply say, "that shows a fundamental misunderstanding of how the markets work". It's another thing to put up some info that shows that YOU know something that I don't know. So far, all we know is that you DON'T know that investor involvement can and DOES help create bubbles that then often burst and that a bunch of money still sitting on the sidelines shows potential for the market going forward.
What you DO know, we don't yet know.
This ^ is true.
I too would be happy to see the brilliance offered by 'inquired Mind'. If only for the entertainment value.