Turtleb wrote:
Guess is from the typical shapes of deaths vs. time curves. Looks like once the
virus gets established in an area (and has gone exponential) there is about a
4 week rise in deaths, which then start the decent.
The height of the peak depends on how many of the vulnerable catch it--avoid
the New York response.
This seems pretty much to be the case no matter what the precautions.
In Georgia, it looks like the virus has been spreading about the state
(establishing new areas of infection, probably because of the lesser
lockdown) leaving the deaths rather flat, but I think it has reached all the
most populated areas by now and deaths will soon start its decrease.
Dougherty County seems to fit your thesis - one of the hardest and earliest hit Georgia counties.
Hall, another early, hard hit county as well. Others, eh, not so much or inconclusive - variables need to be eliminated/more detailed timelines created, etc.. See if it holds up for newly hit areas like Muscogee or Richmond or less impacted areas thus far such as Forsyth and Henry counties.
Now if this is indeed the pattern of the virus, NPIs, or a combination remains to be determined. It does warrant research though.
Dougherty County Deaths
March: 14
April: 101
May: 29
June: 6
July (to date): 3
Hall County Deaths
March: 0
April: 20
May: 27
June: 13
July (to date): 5
Fulton County Deaths
March: 15
April: 101
May: 105
June: 79
July (to date): 23
DeKalb County Deaths
March: 3
April: 44
May: 72
June: 54
July (to date): 14
Gwinnett County Deaths
March: 1
April: 54
May: 73
June: 42
July (to date): 25
Cobb County Deaths
March: 11
April: 80
May: 83
June: 69
July (to date): 17
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