57 COVID deaths in GA today: Post-opening spike starting?

shoeless in seattle wrote:

Look up 2009 pandemic. The media and the liberals are truly the culprits behind this socio-economic collapse.

I did look it up. An estimated 60 million Americans were infected by the H1N1 flu virus in 2009.

Barack Obama was rather heavily criticized, despite his administration's having declared a national emergency before the first American death from that flu.

A total of nearly 13,000 Americans died from that virus, over the course of twelve months. More than TEN TIMES as many Americans have died from this one, over the course of only four or five months, and with many fewer people infected so far (though the total infected is surely higher than the current 3.5 million confirmed cases).

The viruses and the illnesses they cause, then, are very different. SARS-CoV-2 causes a *much* higher rate of death (and long-term disability) among those infected. This would suggest that much stronger public health measures are warranted.

Georgia emergency rooms starting to get slammed.

“They were lined up along the walls in the ER,” a health care worker inside a Navicent Health-owned hospital in middle Georgia told GPB News. “We never have had an influx like that. Since the Fourth of July, it has just exploded.”

https://www.gpb.org/news/2020/07/15/georgia-hospital-worker-sounds-alarm-i-have-never-ever-seen-anything-ever

I do agree with the gist of your post. The data doesn't give you as good a picture of the present as we would like. But I disagree that you can't read much into GA's official data.

GA's official data is the best data we have for the state of Georgia. Georgia's official site is where Johns Hopkins gets its data. It's all the same data and it is reported in the same way as other states.

The graph on the Georgia web site provides additional information that sites like Johns Hopkins and Worldometer don't use. This is a graph that sorts the data into date of first symptoms (for cases) and data of death (for deaths). That's why it is continually adjusted. Cases and death reports come in each day and are assigned the appropriate date. Georgia's graph gives you a better picture of how things have progressed over time. You just have to learn how to use it as it does take some getting used to.

The data the other sites use are the raw case numbers for each day. Georgia reports those on its site as well.

So your position is that because there will be rampant community spread regardless and 10s if thousands of people will die we might as well just let it happen and not bother to take basic precautions like wearing masks? I’m unclear what point you are trying to establish.

For those who still think we can protect nursing homes while letting coronavirus run unabated in the general population, consider Florida:

https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2020/07/15/florida-nursing-homes-see-infections-surge-as-workers-spread-virus-1301255

The same thing will happen in Georgia.

It is inevitable unless we have another stay at home order.

Thousands more Georgians will die because of our greed.

highhoppingworm wrote:

So your position is that because there will be rampant community spread regardless and 10s if thousands of people will die we might as well just let it happen and not bother to take basic precautions like wearing masks? I’m unclear what point you are trying to establish.

He's too stupid, he doesn't even understand his own ideas. Just ignore.

After watching Kemp’s press conference today, it’s clear that the best thing Keisha can do for Georgians is withdraw her consideration for VP.

After watching Kemp’s press conference today, it’s clear that the best thing Kemp can do for Georgians is resign.

It is 2020. There is no excuse for having a two week delay in getting viral transmission data. And the US is one of the richest countries in the world. There is no excuse for not having sufficient testing infrastructure six months into a pandemic. Georgia's two week delay is clearly intended to give state officials a two week cover to keep the public in the dark about current conditions and to create the impression that things are not as bad as they really are. Adjusting for symptom onset is good for the academic epidemiologists, but does not help public health officials charged with trying to determine what the future holds and how to anticipate and respond to trends.

Fat hurts wrote:

For those who still think we can protect nursing homes while letting coronavirus run unabated in the general population, consider Florida:

https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2020/07/15/florida-nursing-homes-see-infections-surge-as-workers-spread-virus-1301255

The same thing will happen in Georgia.

It is inevitable unless we have another stay at home order.

Thousands more Georgians will die because of our greed.

Same thing in Texas even after measures were taken to increase testing. The strategy of shielding vulnerable populations while letting less vulnerable populations go out is being shown to not work at all.

GA Gal wrote:

After watching Kemp’s press conference today, it’s clear that the best thing Keisha can do for Georgians is withdraw her consideration for VP.

Good observation.

It is apparent that his opposition to her implementation of stricter COVID policies and his sending of the National Guard to Atlanta is an attempt to discredit her nationally because of her status as a potential VP pick.

Wear a mask

Social distance

Wash your hands

GET TESTED

Precious Roy wrote:

It is 2020. There is no excuse for having a two week delay in getting viral transmission data. And the US is one of the richest countries in the world. There is no excuse for not having sufficient testing infrastructure six months into a pandemic. Georgia's two week delay is clearly intended to give state officials a two week cover to keep the public in the dark about current conditions and to create the impression that things are not as bad as they really are. Adjusting for symptom onset is good for the academic epidemiologists, but does not help public health officials charged with trying to determine what the future holds and how to anticipate and respond to trends.

I don't understand your criticism here. There is no two week delay.

Georgia reports cases the same way as other states. It just provides additional data that is useful for everyone.

In the last 18 days, there have been 181 COVID-related deaths reported in nursing homes. 1,316 residents and 970 staff have reported to have tested positive. 836 residents have recovered from COVID.

brazen2 wrote:

GA Gal wrote:

After watching Kemp’s press conference today, it’s clear that the best thing Keisha can do for Georgians is withdraw her consideration for VP.

Good observation.

It is apparent that his opposition to her implementation of stricter COVID policies and his sending of the National Guard to Atlanta is an attempt to discredit her nationally because of her status as a potential VP pick.

Yes, the National Guard thing was all about presidential politics. And it was a smart move because if she does get the VP slot Trump can say, "Her city was so out of control they had to call in the National Guard."

But the recent action against her and the city of Atlanta regarding masks was clearly a stupid political move by Kemp. It puts Keisha in a stronger political position because it puts her all over national TV standing up for stronger mask laws, which are very popular. If that shot from Kemp was also about presidential politics then it surely backfired.

Wear a mask

Social distance

Wash your hands

GET TESTED

brazen2 wrote:

In the last 18 days, there have been 181 COVID-related deaths reported in nursing homes. 1,316 residents and 970 staff have reported to have tested positive. 836 residents have recovered from COVID.

Yes, they don't live in a bubble and it's foolish to think we can protect them while the virus runs rampant through the general population.

We must shut back down and reset before thousands more Georgians die.

brazen2 wrote:

Wear a mask

Social distance

Wash your hands

GET TESTED

^This obviously is not working.

When we shelter in place, cases go down.

When we just tell people to "be careful", cases go up.

Anyone who still doesn't understand that is an idiot.

Getting back to the original question posed almost 2 months back

now, the answer seems to be no, not a spike.

My guess is there won't be a spike at all.

Guess is from the typical shapes of deaths vs. time curves. Looks like once the

virus gets established in an area (and has gone exponential) there is about a

4 week rise in deaths, which then start the decent.

The height of the peak depends on how many of the vulnerable catch it--avoid

the New York response.

This seems pretty much to be the case no matter what the precautions.

In Georgia, it looks like the virus has been spreading about the state

(establishing new areas of infection, probably because of the lesser

lockdown) leaving the deaths rather flat, but I think it has reached all the

most populated areas by now and deaths will soon start its decrease.

For some of the other states, looks like the riots kick started the virus in

some big metro areas and we are now a week or two into deaths increasing. So

prediction is another couple weeks of increases and they will start the descent.

The reason for 'herd immunity' in the various areas so quickly seems to

be because there are large percentages of the population that are already

essentially immune: starting with basically everyone under 18. I imagine

it is hard to get a sustained spread in a population without those young

incubators contributing.

Today marks the first day in quite a while that the 7-day average for cases at the 14-day window has been lower than the previous day's 7-day average. Tomorrow looks to be lower as well.

Wear a mask

Social distance

Wash your hands

GET TESTED