Down goes the Dow

Yannix wrote:

All three major indices up today. Another record for the S&P.

And a 13 year high for the NASDAQ.

Now that the default risk has passed, the blowoff top cometh.

But what's interesting is the change in the US Dollar Index (and to a certain extent the change in long treasuries and expectations for same). They seem to be factoring in no change to FED policy for an extended time and selling off the dollar accordingly. The FED throws more money into the economy for which they acquire paper that they will one day have to pay interest on, the spoils accrue to those that already have it, and in the long run, the little guy gets burned (again, i.e., buy high--sell low).

Sagarin:

D-E-F-L-A-T-I-O-N

Going to be a really good party until it bursts, though.

Actually, 15,382 - 14,850 = 532 points

agip wrote:

* wrote:

The Dow should be back up to where it started at the beginning of this thread soon.

the dow is 613 points higher today than when this thread started.

I meant to say the Dow should be back to an all time high soon.

He mentioned the 15,700 high in the first post.

Midday numbers are up across the board.

Another up day. Bubble?

This is something to be aware of:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1767172-2-charts-that-make-me-feel-uneasy-about-the-stock-market

It won't be over until you see P/E's ~25 or so in the company of declining corporate profits, and experts explaining why "it's different this time." We need to give Agip a full-blown case of P/E acrophobia.

And, do you remember Mary Meeker? She's baaaaaaaaaaack:

http://allthingsd.com/20130529/mary-meekers-internet-trends-report-is-back-at-d11-slides/

Deja vu all over again. BUY BUY BUY!

I can't believe we're pushing 20x ttm earnings - how the heck did that happen?

I think the US is probably not going to continue its world market leadership here - just too expensive.

so easy to get greedy here as the market just keeps rising effortlessly

Another positive day across the board to conclude a very good week. Looks like we'll be saying much the same for October in a few more days.

Good couple of months for me. Pales compared to the real estate market. I sold two properties in the last 30 days for $190K profit. Only made ~$130K in the market.

Thanks, Barack Obama.

Good Gracious wrote:

Good couple of months for me. Pales compared to the real estate market. I sold two properties in the last 30 days for $190K profit. Only made ~$130K in the market.

What were the investment comparisons and time frames?

thank you sir may I have another

coach d wrote:

Now that the default risk has passed, the blowoff top cometh.

But what's interesting is the change in the US Dollar Index (and to a certain extent the change in long treasuries and expectations for same). They seem to be factoring in no change to FED policy for an extended time and selling off the dollar accordingly. The FED throws more money into the economy for which they acquire paper that they will one day have to pay interest on, the spoils accrue to those that already have it, and in the long run, the little guy gets burned (again, i.e., buy high--sell low).

Sagarin:

D-E-F-L-A-T-I-O-N

Going to be a really good party until it bursts, though.

Yep, I agree. Not sure how long the game can go on, but we're in the late stages, unless Europe collapses first and people lose faith in the sovereign credit of the US, in which case, stocks could catch a further bid, as during the Great Depression. That is not my high-probability scenario however.

Hussman's scenario was the risk of a parabolic blow off up to above 1,800 on the S&P 500, perhaps 1,850. We'll see how close he gets.

It also wouldn't surprise me to see the Fed increase debt purchases rather than tapering.

Sagarin wrote:

Yep, I agree. Not sure how long the game can go on, but we're in the late stages, unless Europe collapses first and people lose faith in the sovereign credit of the US, in which case, stocks could catch a further bid, as during the Great Depression. That is not my high-probability scenario however.

So, definitely maybe?

gaber wrote:

Try 7000.

Not looking too good there, fella.

Dow closes at record high today.