The numbers are bullshit. Trust me, I do this for a living. Every knowledgeable person in this biz reads his stuff when they need a good laugh.
Look, Stockman is a crafty guy. He spews this stuff because he knows he has readers on the lunatic fringe who just eat this stuff up. He's laughing all the way to the bank.
A Stockman gem...
"Yes, the BLS is now producing such a steaming pile of waste matter that it might as well be made an arm of the DNC."
Friggin hilarious.
What Stockman says is that equities "shouldn't" be priced as high as they are, based on historical patterns, and that because history is doomed to repeat itself, equity prices will fall accordingly.
His warrant that history is doomed to repeat itself needs exploration. He reduces everything to the markets, and completely ignores social and geographical conditions around the world, as well as completely ignoring any meaningful comparison to other possible investment vehicles.
While I still believe that we are in for a bigger drop, I don't necessarily subscribe to his argument. I think that there will be some social disorder, and that the response to that disorder will be short-term fear, during which there will be a selloff. I doubt very much the SP500 will go to 1300 within the next 5 years.
The Fed can help put off that disorder by maintaining and following the fiction that employment/wages is improving, in order to justify rate increases. Yes, rate increases can happen. Many feel that ZIRP or NIRP is the path to destruction, and want to distinguish the US in some way by not implementing it.
Perception can create reality, for a time. As long as the election results are managed adroitly, and the messaging is well-controlled, I could see stable waters for some time--that is, no big selloff, but no big gains, either.
But I'm nervous. There are too many balls in the air. Too many people are nervous and cashing out, but the good news is that they're cashing out to the USA. If there is a place to be, it is here.
Off for a week, to go laugh at an overpriced beachfront condo, and do some architecture and engineering, with time off for skiing and sailing.
Maybe I'll report live from la-la-land.
Quite simply, he writes exactly what the lunatic fringe wants to hear, facts be damned. He's fleecing his moronic readers which is no surprise given his history.
Instigator,
Are you afraid to go to the S&P website? S&P earning have in fact declined 20% since 9/30/2014.
Igy
Congratulations. Of the dozens of numbers he used in that article, you found one that might be close to accurate. Good job!
You've fallen for it hook, line, and sinker.
Maserati,
I find it interesting the angst and animis generated by a Stockman post. I do feel there is more reality to a Stockman post than the average Wall Street 2016 S&P 500 target. A case in point, the last time the S&P 500 GAAP earnings were this low was 3rd Quarter 2012 and the index stood at 1440. Yet today the average Wall Street target for 2016 is 2175. So I find it much more reasonable for the index to drop to 1300 than advance to high side Wall Street target of 2300. The trend in earnings is firm and it is down. The market will do what it always does, follow the earnings.
Spring is here in Idaho, rain and temperatures approaching 60. Looks like our skiing (snow) may be done for the year.
Enjoy your time at the beach.
Igy
Instigator,
If you become more familiar with Stockman's writing you will find he is no fan of the Republican establishment either.
Igy
Instigator,
You can dismiss his conclusions but the data is correct.
Hope you don't have a Stockman nightmare.
Igy
No Stockman nightmare here, though I may die from laughter.
BTW, the fact that you think he's no fan of the Republican establishment is proof that he's pulled the wool over your eyes.
U.S. and Canadian companies outside of the financial sector have sufficient liquidity to cover maturing debt, capital spending and dividends for the next 12 months, but are facing a maturity cliff after 2017 that poses some risk, according to Moody's.
In fact, added risk could bubble with persistently low oil prices or if a shaky global economy worsens.
The short-term news is assuring. The rating agency said its latest liquidity survey of 1,720 companies rated at B3 and higher found 97.4% had enough liquidity to cover their cash needs for the next year, up from 96.6% in its previous survey conducted in 2011.
Today's China numbers:
Exports down 20% YoY
Imports down 8% YoY
Chinese New Year was in Feb this year, still, those are not good numbers...
Hi, Igy!
NFIB Small business conditions index slipped - at two year lows
Redbook: Same store sales +0.8%. Meh.
Have to say the econ numbers have been very mushy, even soft lately
combined with the weak earnings....it's hard to be bullish, isn't it.
As I said to Instigator, you can argue with Stockman's conclusions but his numbers are accurate. The data is straight from the sources he quote which are largely S&P and FactSet.
Igy
So much for Dow 17,000....so sad it didn't last longer......
You crack me up. We have a 3-week run up, then as soon as things drop 0.5% you're hollering "I told you so!"
Don't be sad....I can assure you will be at 20,000 before you know it.....in 2022......
Oh...gosh be....whew....back above 17k......I can relax now....I was getting worried about all the stocks I bought at 16k......