Down goes the Dow

We prefer to have allocations to high-yield and emerging market debt.

Seriously?

coach d,

I will let you interpret the short term tea leaves of the charts. Here on the other hand is some data that can be relied upon for the long term direction of this market. We have heard from several posters that the equity market was forward looking with regards to earnings. The market then by simple reasoning should also be backward looking in regards to earnings. One can't have it both ways.

S&P 500 2015 4th Quarter Reporting is nearly complete (97%) and the Last Twelve Months (LTM) GAAP earnings is a $86.46 a share. The 12/31/2015 close was 2043 resulting in a PE of 23.64.

The last time GAAP earnings were this low was 2012 3rd Quarter when the LTM was $86.50 the S&P was 1440 and the PE was 16.66.

To reiterate the GAAP LTM high was 2014 3rd Quarter at $105.96 when the S&P 500 was at 1972 and the PE was 18.61.

The S&P 500 is trading at one of the highest valuation levels this cycle and earnings continue to decline.

Stock buy backs continue to add a 4% tailwind to earnings.

Choose your side. I will stick by my Dow 13,000 by September 13, 2016 call.

Igy

Say,

HSBC call not mine.

Igy

So why the link?

Say,

I do agree with their lower allocation to equities and higher amounts of cash.

Igy

This just reaffirms the fact that there is always a contrary opinion; sometimes even in the same article.

Big,

The post that is more telling is mine on earnings. There is nothing there that is contrary and the only opinion is my Dow target.

Igy

Did you not just say you did not agree with some of the article you posted? You agree with some of it, but not all. Thus my point.

Agreed.

To All,

Average Wall Street 2016 S&P 500 GAAP earnings estimate is $112.10 per share. That is $25.64 or 29.65% above the 2015 S&P 500 GAAP earnings of $86.46.

Some believers in the fantasy numbers of Operating Earnings or non-GAAP may refer to this metric to get some relief. Yes some relief, but let's compare. Average Wall Sreet 2016 S&P 500 non-GAAP earnings is $120.62 per share. That is $20.18 or 20.09% above the 2015 S&P 500 non-GAAP earnings of $100.44.

Igy

Non-GAAP are far from fantasy numbers. In certain cases they can be more useful than GAAP numbers.

[quote]Schwarzie wrote:

[quote]GIP wrote:

The name you have used indicates you are a racist Zi&nist.

Huh?

Mango,

OK, assuming your beliefs about non-GAAP earnings are correct, the average Wall Sreet analyst is expecting earnings to increase 20% over the coming year. That is indeed a fantasy number.

Igy

Hey, K5, you say you're not an anti-Semite but you insulted that guy just because of his name. You lose. Again.

K5 detector wrote:

Hey, K5, you say you're not an anti-Semite but you insulted that guy just because of his name. You lose. Again.

His name is a racist term applied to black people by the Zi*nists. My God you are ignorant.

Hey, K5, it's not racist if you apply it to yourself. Also it happens to be Arnold Swartzenegger's nickname. And it's got nothing to do with Zionists.

Oh, and I am not your God. Just because I'm smarter than you doesn't make me a god.

Your welcome.

Milton wrote:

K5 detector wrote:

Hey, K5, you say you're not an anti-Semite but you insulted that guy just because of his name. You lose. Again.

His name is a racist term applied to black people by the Zi*nists. My God you are ignorant.

Come on Milton. The Zi*nists are entitled to do and say whatever they want. We regular people are not allowed to comment on what they say, no matter how heinous. You should know this.

Maybe you are unaware of the meaning -- I suspect not -- but let me enlighten you.

Is "Schwartze" A Racial Slur? Reflections on Jackie Mason's Comedy and Yiddish Vernacular Speech

Jackie Mason is in trouble again . The folksy comedian, whose conservative politics are as in your face as his humor ( he now claims "white people in America no longer have freedom of speech "), says, after being criticized for calling President Obama a "schwartze" in a stand up comedy routine, that the word "schwartze" is merely a Yiddish slang expression for blacks, not a racial slur.

Although I am a little younger than Jackie Mason, like him, I grew up in a family where Yiddish was spoken along with English. In my family, the word "schwartze" was a common expression, one which my parents used with some regularity, but for the life of me I can't think of a single context in which they used it which was positive

They never said

" The schwartzes at the local high school are making it a much better school. They are wonderful students!"

" I love having "schwartzes" as our neighbors. They are so well mannered, and so polite."

" I am so excited, we're having the Jones family for dinner on Sunday afternoon. Whenever the shwartzes come over, I make my best pot roast.""

"The schwartzes loves Jewish deli almost as much as I love grits!"

" The Concord is my favorite hotel. At least half of the guests there are schwartzes, so you know everyone is going to have a good time."

But I heard plenty of the following"

If the schwartzes keep coming into the neighborhood,, I am moving to Queens"

"Even when the schwartzes are educated, they don't have the same moral standards we do"

" I am not letting my daughter go to Wingate. It's full of schwartzes!"

" He married a schwartze and his family disowned him. They are sitting shiva right now!"