The Ingebrigtsen's prove that the East African 'natural born runner' superiority is a myth. Here's why.

Hope that made enough sense for you...

Well Said wrote:

Well said...and I agree that's always been the problem of rekrunner's arguments on that particular issue. But I'm sure when he makes his rounds this morning he'll try to discredit your points and give us another one of those convoluted, nonsensical responses of his.

If 1:46 is what you mean by "closing the gap", we are not participating in the same conversation. A 1:46 ranks you as the #7042 performance of all time and the #724 runner of all time. This is not what comes to my mind when the topic is "closing the gap" on East African performances.

Coevett wrote:

1:46 is closing the gap ...

rekrunner wrote:

If 1:46 is what you mean by "closing the gap", we are not participating in the same conversation.

A 1:46 ranks you as the #7042 performance of all time and the #724 runner of all time.

This is not what comes to my mind when the topic is "closing the gap" on East African performances.

Coevett wrote:

1:46 is closing the gap ...

Pretty sure I stated in my original comment 'ran faster than 1:46'.

9 Brits have so far ran under 1:46 this season, and 16 Kenyans.

In 1999 at the same stage of the season it was 3 Brits and 15 Kenyans.

1:45 is world class, unless you're defining world class in El K's standards of winning a Gold or breaking a WR.

13 of the 50 sub 1:45.5 times ran by Brits in the last ten years have come in the last 1 and 1/2 seasons.

Britain is producing more world class middle-distance runners than ever, and this is clearly translating at the top end with Kyle Langford winning GB's first outdoor global middle-distance medal since Peter Elliott nearly 3 decades ago (and at age 20 just 3 years after setting foot on a track), and young guys like Max Burgin and whole group behind him such as Oliver Dustin looking like the next generation.

800m running in Kenya is declining like every other track event there, although it's declining the least.

Filtering top-20 for "QUALITY" compared to what GBR was doing in mid-1980s (say a round 3:30 to include Filip) 2007: 0 2008: 0 2009: 1 (EA) Leap to: 2017: 2 (EA) 2018: 2 (EA) + 1 (Non-A) 2019: 1 (EA) Since we were talking about non-Africans closing the gap on East Africans, here are some figures without North Africans: (Year: quality of #20; quantity of East Africans; quantity of Non Africans; quantity of Kenyans) 2007: 3:34.1; 9 (EA); 4 (Non-A) (8 Kenyans) 2008: 3:33.6; 11 (EA); 3 (Non-A) (9 Kenyans) 2009: 3:33.6; 9 (EA); 5 (Non-A) (8 Kenyans) Leap to: 2017: 3:34.6; 15 (EA); 4 (Non-A) (9 Kenyans) 2018: 3:34.4; 10 (EA); 8 (Non-A) (6 Kenyans) 2019: 3:34.6; 11 (EA); 9 (Non-A) (9 Kenyans) While more non-Africans are making the top-20 (roughly sub-3:34) in recent years, they are not running faster than Coe/Cram in the mid-1980s (no sub-3:30s). The number of East Africans have remained relatively constant (except for a few more Ethiopians in 2017), and Kenyans have remained fairly constant throughout, while North Africans have almost disappeared (1, 2, 0) versus the previous decade (7, 6, 6).

rekrunner wrote:

These are measures of "quantity", whereas the statement of "closing the gap" is one of "quality".

If we consider the best European times of the 1980s, when I looked at historical times up until 2018, only 16 East Africans had run faster than this mid-1980s benchmark, over a period of 28 years.

So when you look at top-20 per year, most of them, Africans and non-Africans alike, are not running the kinds of times I considered as "closing the gap".

Closing the gap wrote:

Actually, for me the top 20 in the 1500 is an even better indicator.

2007 4 out of top 20 Non-African

2008 3 out of 20

2009 4 out 20

Leap to:

2017 4 out top 20 N-Af

2018 8 out of 20

2019 9 out of 20!!

So Non-Africans are now almost 50-50 with Africans. Hmmmmm...

But you were responding to me, and that is not what I understood by "closing the gap" in a thread praising the Ingebrigtsen's performances against the East Africans. It is normal to come to different conclusions when we are not talking about the same thing.

Whilst I agree that middle distance running in the UK appears to have had a resurgence in the last 5 years, that stat is quite meaningless.

13/50 = 0.26

"1 and a half seasons" is 2 years

2/10 = 0.2

Therefore we've seen about the number of 800m runs in 2 years that you'd mathematically expect in 2.6 years. Not groundbreaking.

Stats can be spun however you want. For me counting the number of 1:45.5 runs is pointless. Kyle Langford ran 1:44.97 in London and came 9th. It's not world class. Peter Coe said in about 1980 we need to forget the 1:45 'barrier' for men.

Untill we have 1:43 guys again like in 2010 and 2012 and then we won't be truly competitive.

Also track will decline in Kenya as the country becomes more developed. This is expected and we have seen it in the UK also.

Untill recently it was almost unfathomable to think of one British man running 3:30 yet in the mid 80's we had three. If you can't see that middle distance running has declined here then you are watching a different sport.

rekrunner wrote:

But you were responding to me, and that is not what I understood by "closing the gap" in a thread praising the Ingebrigtsen's performances against the East Africans.

It is normal to come to different conclusions when we are not talking about the same thing.

But nobody understands you, and nobody knows what you are talking about.

I did start this thread, so maybe if you feel you're in a different conversation, you need to go to another thread.

I thought this thread was started by a native Spanish speaking anonymous poster "Natural Talents". That is a revelation. The phrase "closing the gap" was brought into this thread, not by you, but by "Armstronglivs" on page 3: "... that Europeans like Jakob are now closing the gap on the best Africans." I think it is safe to say, he was not talking about 1:46 runners in the 800m, as neither Jakob, nor his brothers, have run 1:46, and runners ranked outside of the top 700 would unlikely be called "the best Africans". This appears to be a case of you not knowing what "Armstronglivs" is talking about, and then blaming your poor comprehension on me.

Coevett wrote:

rekrunner wrote:

But you were responding to me, and that is not what I understood by "closing the gap" in a thread praising the Ingebrigtsen's performances against the East Africans.

It is normal to come to different conclusions when we are not talking about the same thing.

But nobody understands you, and nobody knows what you are talking about.

I did start this thread, so maybe if you feel you're in a different conversation, you need to go to another thread.

rekrunner wrote:

Filtering top-20 for "QUALITY" compared to what GBR was doing in mid-1980s (say a round 3:30 to include Filip)

2007: 0

2008: 0

2009: 1 (EA)

Leap to:

2017: 2 (EA)

2018: 2 (EA) + 1 (Non-A)

2019: 1 (EA)

Since we were talking about non-Africans closing the gap on East Africans, here are some figures without North Africans:

(Year: quality of #20; quantity of East Africans; quantity of Non Africans; quantity of Kenyans)

2007: 3:34.1; 9 (EA); 4 (Non-A) (8 Kenyans)

2008: 3:33.6; 11 (EA); 3 (Non-A) (9 Kenyans)

2009: 3:33.6; 9 (EA); 5 (Non-A) (8 Kenyans)

Leap to:

2017: 3:34.6; 15 (EA); 4 (Non-A) (9 Kenyans)

2018: 3:34.4; 10 (EA); 8 (Non-A) (6 Kenyans)

2019: 3:34.6; 11 (EA); 9 (Non-A) (9 Kenyans)

While more non-Africans are making the top-20 (roughly sub-3:34) in recent years, they are not running faster than Coe/Cram in the mid-1980s (no sub-3:30s). The number of East Africans have remained relatively constant (except for a few more Ethiopians in 2017), and Kenyans have remained fairly constant throughout, while North Africans have almost disappeared (1, 2, 0) versus the previous decade (7, 6, 6).

Geez...I can't imagine why. ?

Coevett wrote:

rekrunner wrote:

But you were responding to me, and that is not what I understood by "closing the gap" in a thread praising the Ingebrigtsen's performances against the East Africans.

It is normal to come to different conclusions when we are not talking about the same thing.

But nobody understands you, and nobody knows what you are talking about.

I did start this thread, so maybe if you feel you're in a different conversation, you need to go to another thread.

"Natural Talents" started the thread.

Coevett wrote:

I did start this thread, so maybe if you feel you're in a different conversation, you need to go to another thread.

Well, there's the proof you started this thread, even if that original post was riddled with grammar issues.

You're not going to get too many mediocre Kenyans at the world level in track simply because mediocre Kenyans don't get their travel and entries to top class track meets. The UK is on the upswing in track and field, as is Norway, but Kenya is not that down when you consider how many are earning their living on the roads now but could do so on the track.

In the 800m this year, Kenya has 5 of the top 10 athletes.

The best Brit is currently #16.

In the 1500m this year, Kenya has 6 of the top 13 athletes.

Britain has #4 (except for Mo Farah, that was not happening for Britain since the 1990s), then #14 and #19.

In the 3000m, Kenya has 4 of the top 17, not great for them.

The UK just has #15 and no one else near. (Australia actually has a bunch of guys in the rankings).

In the 5000m, Kenya has six in the top 20, including Cheserek who is applying for American citizenship. Chelimo was a Kenyan citizen but is an American now.

The UK has Butchart at 18th, and no one else until #50 at 13:19.

In the 10000m, Kenya has #4, #14, 15, while the UK has none until 47 and 53, and Ethiopia totally dominates.

In the marathon, Kenya has 7 of the top 20, while the UK has none. Ethiopia has seen its dominance rise in the distances as Kenya has fallen during this new drug-testing era in which Kenya gets tested finally and Ethiopia still does not, as far as we can see.

Correction, in the marathon, Mo is #15 in 2:05, and next for the UK is Callum Hawkins at #67 in 2:08.

zxcvzxcv wrote:

In the 800m this year, Kenya has 5 of the top 10 athletes.

The best Brit is currently #16.

In the 1500m this year, Kenya has 6 of the top 13 athletes.

Britain has #4 (except for Mo Farah, that was not happening for Britain since the 1990s), then #14 and #19.

How many Diamond League races have Brits ran in this year? The point is the depth is there, most of them are young, most are improving, and they're peaking for Doha (or at least for the UK trials).

Kyle Langford (who has had a lot of problems) ran sub 1:45 in his one and only DL race.

Look at the top five Kenyans :

1: Rotich - 1:42.5 (29 years old)

2: Kinyamal - 1:43.4 (22)

3: Saruni - 1:43.7 (24)

4: Tuwei - 1:43.9 (26)

5: Korir - 1:44.0 (25)

6: Potato Tim - 1:44.6 (23)

Of the above Kinyamal is obviously the standard 'youngster' but even he is slower than last season, so not a good sign. Saruni and even more so Korir appear to be going backwards for no apparent reason. Tuwei isn't going to be a medal threat or even make the team. Potato Tim in 6th surely wont be running the 800 at either Doha or Tokyo. All hope with Rotich who is almost 30.

Let's look at the top five Brits :

1: Jamie Webb - 1:44.5 (25)

2: Kyle Langford - 1:44.9 (23)

3: Elliot Giles - 1:45.0 (25)

4: Jake Wightman - 1:45.0 (25)

5: Josh Kerr - 1:45.3 (21)

6: Max Burgin - 1:45.3 (17)

Four out of those six set their pbs already this season. Jake Wightman is down on his pb but was injured (as was Kyle). Max Burgin has suffered injury problems this season yet has solo ran a 1:45.3 at barely 17. If he had been fit for the European U20s he surely would have gone under 1:45. He could well run 1:43 this season in the right race, if his injury is minor and overcome soon. Kenya has nothing like him.

The average time of the top six Kenyans is 1:43.6.

The average time of the top six Brits is 1:45.0

The average (official) age of the top six Kenyans is 24.6 years.

The average age of the top six Brits is 22.6 years.

Also, let's not forget that 4 out of the top 21 Kenyan 800m runners from 2017 have been busted in the last 18 months. We can fairly confidently predict that at least one of those top 6 Kenyans above will be busted before Tokyo.

As for the 3000, 5000 etc, I didn't say anything about GB closing the gap on Kenya, but even there Kenya is clearly declining, whereas British times (if you leave out Mo Farah) are improving.

Only a fool would pretend that the gap between GB and Kenya is closing at middle-distance.

*not closing

Coevett, why do you pretend to habe startend this thread? You know it was startend by the respected poster "Natural talents", a spanisch speaker with

quite good english skills. Why are you lying?

Coevett wrote:

I did start this thread, so maybe if you feel you're in a different conversation, you need to go to another thread.

Evidence of your lies and fabrications over the years.

Coesmet wrote:

Coevett, why do you pretend to habe startend this thread? You know it was startend by the respected poster "Natural talents", a spanisch speaker with

quite good english skills. Why are you lying?

Hahahaha

Corvette literally has no credibility at all.

Everyone sees him make things up, change his stories and lie constantly

Coevett wrote:

Only a fool would pretend that the gap between GB and Kenya is closing at middle-distance.

+2