What percentage of males in their prime could break 10 minutes in the the 2-mile after 5 years of training?

sixth june wrote:

Let's twist it a bit...

What percentage of males aged 25-32 could break 4 minutes mile after 5 years of specific mile training?

Assume they have BMI=20 at the start.

Probably something like 1:10k or so. Up that BMI a bit and it would drop to 1:100k pretty quick. There is a huge difference between something like the 4:40 mile that we are talking about and a 4:00 mile in terms of genetic potential limits.

The average 5k for males last year was 28:46 (the average male 5k runner was in his late 30s). Those runners are in considerably better shape than the general population. A 10 minute sub 2M is equivalent to probably around 16 flat for 5k, depending on mileage. That would be a huge, huge drop just to get the median (50%) of current 5k runners down there, the equivalent of nearly a 13 minute 5k drop, or nearly 50%!! In my conference back in the mid to late 1980s, there were a few guys who should have been well under ten, with an attempt (two 4:18 guys, for instance), but only two or three guys went sub 10, and they were in the 9:50s until one guy ran 9:37 to get out of Redwood Empire.

Not great. We've certainly had a lot of years recently with more depth from 10-20 than top end varsity talent.

If nothing else this thread proves that talented runners are also morans.

Flagpole being the lone exception on this particular thread.

As a former shitty runner I think I can weigh in on this. While I think the percentage that would break 10 after 5 years would be fairly low, I think it would be due to lack of motivation, and not knowing how to push themselves rather than it not being possible.

I ran track my Fr/So year, but put in no effort and had PRs of ~6:20/16:00. My junior year I finally took it seriously and did XC. Junior Year PRs were 19:19 (3 mile) 5:16/11:36. Summer before Sr. year pushed the mileage up to ~60-70 and got my PR to 16:49 for 3 (right now) .That is about a 10:40 equivalent after only 1.5 years of serious year of training (those first 2 years were probably 15 mpw for 4 months a year, and added pretty much no base or fitness). With 3.5 more years of training I can definitely see myself breaking 10. This is also coming form someone who started off fat not just out of shape.

I wish there were a reality show that did just this, including a women's equivalent goal. Where like The Biggest Losers, they get a state of the art facility in Colorado and trainers, including Salazar who makes guest appearances that scare the shit out of everyone. Pluck out a field of a dozen hobby joggers and joe schmoes with different backgrounds, talent level and motivation, and see who has the talent and will to make it, given all the support--and maybe select a time that's the qualifier for Olympic trials.

It would be heartbreaking and interesting because the people who want it the most probably don't have the natural skill, while those more gifted could be weaker mentally.

The population of males we're interested in must have the following characteristics:

* As OP said, "in their prime", which happens at different ages for different guys.

* Naturally at a low body weight or willing to get there.

* Has grown up playing physical sports and being physically active in general.

* Wasn't malnourished as a kid, and hasn't wrecked body with alcohol or recreational drugs.

* Inherently motivated, good at solidering through repetitive tasks, good at pushing themself beyond their comfort limit.

Let's have a look at some guys trying to run the pace they will need to be able to generate to achieve this.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ziQEsdXMbi8

Curiosity Killed the Cat wrote:

For the sake of argument, lets assume that none of the people in the sample are physically disabled. They do, however, represent the average distribution of fitness and talent across the world.

The men will have 5 years to train to break 10 minutes. They have access to the best facilities and coaching in the world and are not in school or working any jobs. Their only purpose in life is to train to break 10 minutes.

What percentage of them do it?

Won't give an exact percentage, but those willing to suffer through 5 years of training with that 1 goal in mind would be very high. Most who accomplish it would do it within 2-3 years. Those who aren't motivated would have an inverse representation of the motivated population with a high dropout rate and low success rate with dropout rate mirroring success rate.

jjjjjj wrote:

The average 5k for males last year was 28:46 (the average male 5k runner was in his late 30s). Those runners are in considerably better shape than the general population. A 10 minute sub 2M is equivalent to probably around 16 flat for 5k, depending on mileage. That would be a huge, huge drop just to get the median (50%) of current 5k runners down there, the equivalent of nearly a 13 minute 5k drop, or nearly 50%!! In my conference back in the mid to late 1980s, there were a few guys who should have been well under ten, with an attempt (two 4:18 guys, for instance), but only two or three guys went sub 10, and they were in the 9:50s until one guy ran 9:37 to get out of Redwood Empire.

Nobody is talking about getting current 5k runners down. We are talking about people in their prime (call it 25-27) that fast. That is a heck of a lot different than getting a bunch of late 40s/50s guy (i.e. what you need to get the avearge age up to late 30) fast.

And that is before factoring in training. How many of the people running 5ks today are breaking 30mpw? How many are doing interval work? I wouldn't be shocked to learn the numbers for both of those is less than 10%

"My high school regularly has more than 15 break 10 per year. My senior year 90% of our seniors broke 10. I'd say probably 80% of people that go through all 4 years do it. If they are dedicated to doing it no reason it couldn't be at least 60%."

Lots of dumb posts in this thread. This one for instance assumes that the runners that stuck around for 4 years are of similar ability to those that didn't. yes, Einstein, the two freshman running XC in 28:00 and 17:00 are equally likely to stick around and if only that 28:00 XC runner had only stuck around for 3 more years he would also have dipped under 10:00.

My high school regularly has more than 15 break 10 per year. My senior year 90% of our seniors broke 10. I'd say probably 80% of people that go through all 4 years do it. If they are dedicated to doing it no reason it couldn't be at least 60%.

_______________________________________________________________

BS!, Unless your HS is in Eldoret

I've read though this whole board and I honestly think that 85% of people could physically break 10 minutes. However only 50% of them have the mental capacity- about 43% could definitely go under ten . I myself am a high school senior 9:16 last season and I think a lot more people could break ten. I just think the average population doesn't try hard enough. If everyone put in more effort the average 5k would go down to about 16:30.

Curiosity Killed the Cat wrote:

For the sake of argument, lets assume that none of the people in the sample are physically disabled. They do, however, represent the average distribution of fitness and talent across the world.

The men will have 5 years to train to break 10 minutes. They have access to the best facilities and coaching in the world and are not in school or working any jobs. Their only purpose in life is to train to break 10 minutes.

What percentage of them do it?

I would say somewhere between 10-15%.

Being in your prime and having all day to work at something does not matter if there are God given limits to capability. My 100m PR is 10.7, I don't think I could have ever run faster than perhaps 10.5 no matter what I did. The same principle applies to running distance, therefore, you can eliminate 50% of the population simply because and they don't have the body type to be distance runner.

With that said, you only have a pool of about 50% to deal with. Of the 50%, who are capable of running distance, half of those don't have the talent because it takes some amount talent to run a 10 minute 2 mile. A case in point, about 2/3rds of high School XC runners can't run a 10 minute 2 mile and in many cases, they are running as much as their bodies will allow without overtraining and breaking down. The main point is there are somethings many people will never be able to do matter much they train and I'm assured of this every time I try my hand at playing a musical instrument.

SEXC runner wrote:

I've read though this whole board and I honestly think that 85% of people could physically break 10 minutes. However only 50% of them have the mental capacity- about 43% could definitely go under ten . I myself am a high school senior 9:16 last season and I think a lot more people could break ten. I just think the average population doesn't try hard enough. If everyone put in more effort the average 5k would go down to about 16:30.

I think 85% of people should be able to run close to 8:15 for all the same reasons you list. in fact if 85% of people can break 10 you should have little trouble taking down my record.

You just need to try hard.

see "nationally respected coach" and "ran up to 90 mpw." Most people have neither.

There are a lot of baseless opinions and worthless anecdotes on this thread, so I might as well add in my own, equally worthless two cents.

My 3200m background: barely broke 11 as HS freshman, barely broke 10 as HS sophomore, ran 9:10 as HS senior. I was a horrible athlete until I trained consistently for several years. On my middle school xc team, I was never better than the 9th or 10th runner in my xc team class (about a 300 kid class, so 150 males). Once in high school, I trained consistently while others didn't, and I improved a lot more than they did.

I think that claims of >50% are ambitious, but

I grew up in a city of 450,000. I now live in a city of 8 million.

In each there are usually 1 or 2 HS boys who could break 10 each year.

This 50% guess is absurd.

Just another moran wrote:

There are a lot of baseless opinions and worthless anecdotes on this thread, so I might as well add in my own, equally worthless two cents.

My 3200m background: barely broke 11 as HS freshman, barely broke 10 as HS sophomore, ran 9:10 as HS senior. I was a horrible athlete until I trained consistently for several years. On my middle school xc team, I was never better than the 9th or 10th runner in my xc team class (about a 300 kid class, so 150 males). Once in high school, I trained consistently while others didn't, and I improved a lot more than they did.

I think that claims of >50% are ambitious, but

Got cut off

....but