I'd like my NY folks to do well but I'm thinking Princeton FTW on both sides.
But Columbia's men have a *great* shot at winning and actually deserve to be the favorites, going in to the meet.
I'd like my NY folks to do well but I'm thinking Princeton FTW on both sides.
But Columbia's men have a *great* shot at winning and actually deserve to be the favorites, going in to the meet.
Oh, and I'm going with Awad individually. The guy gets into shape fast.
Any predictions as to how fast the guys might run? I was looking at the all-time list and Ben True in '08 is the only guy under 24 minutes on the Van Cortland course.
I'll guess in decent conditions 24:20 for the win and 24:50 gets you the last spot on 2nd team all-ivy. Very different scenario from West Windsor where on a good day there would 10 guys under 24 minutes.
Honestly, I have no idea--I'm sure your guess is better than mine. The course has been jazzed around so many times in the last several years that I can't follow it anymore.
I know that it's spelled Van Cortlandt, though. :-)
"Cortland" is a kind of apple, or a small state college in Upstate NY.
Just read an interesting article in the Daily Pennsylvanian in their HepsXC preview.
The men are aiming for the team title, but it seems like they are trying to be realistic in their chances...
"And there isn’t much margin for error, even for a men’s team that has recently broken onto the national stage.
“We need me and Nick [Tuck] ... to finish in the top five,†Awad said. “And then we need our [fourth and fifth finishers] to really run well.â€
Adding to the intrigue surrounding the men’s team is the physical condition of Awad, who admits to having had an inconsistent fall in terms of training. Regardless, he will need to step up with his best race of the season this weekend to give the Red and Blue a shot at the title."
Article -
http://www.thedp.com/article/2015/10/penn-cross-country-heptagonals-2015-preview
Awad's health is going to be a major factor in the team's success on Friday. I just hope it is an "up" day for him. I read on his blog on how drained he was from a long outdoor season - I wonder if that is why his season has been subpar compared to last year.
Another interesting bit of knowledge about Dartmouth's mediocre result at the Wisconsin Invitational:
Barry Harwick wrote (in the alumni newsletter):
We had one runner fall, another fall over him, and still another lose a shoe; all before the mile mark.
The splits from the race show a very slow pace through 5k, so starting in the back must have made it very difficult for the Big Green to move up. The course is very narrow for a field with 25-30 competitive teams, so I would not regard their loss to Columbia as particularly telling. I actually think Dartmouth, Princeton, and Columbia are on quite equal footing going into this one and the deepest team will win.
Even if Awad and Tuck run well I just don't see Penn having the depth to contend. Harvard and Yale are similar.
lone_sequoia wrote:
Another interesting bit of knowledge about Dartmouth's mediocre result at the Wisconsin Invitational:
Barry Harwick wrote (in the alumni newsletter):We had one runner fall, another fall over him, and still another lose a shoe; all before the mile mark.
I'm surprised there wasn't more discussion about people falling given on how long the entire field stayed as a pack. I hope the athletes weren't hurt.
Penn did manage to surprise the field last year with their 3rd place finish at HepsXC. I think Penn's depth is better than both Harvard's and Yale's though.
Cornell also managed to "surprise the field" when they took second last year. A lot of people seem to be counting them out of the top three, or even the top four--it'll be interesting to see whether they can surprise again.
A 3,700 world men's preview is now published:
Rojo, you really think the the toughness of the VCP course is overrated? Look at the times! It runs a good 30-45 seconds slower despite the fact that things tend to get more tactical at Princeton. The back hills put you in a world of pain within the first 5k, whereas the first 5k of Princeton feels like a tempo. I really do think the Columbia men have a nice advantage from training in the park, but I still think there #4 and #5 are going to hurt them. If they are relying on freshmen with good high school mile/two-mile times they are taking a huge risk.
I think Dartmouth is going to put 8 guys in front of Columbia's #5. Thats how many guys they have that have been consistently cranking 100+ mile weeks for at least a year (some for over two years now). And those miles are not stopping at crosswalks in Manhattan. We are talking about hills twice the size of Cemetery that they climb every day. Beantown was good but the truth is we haven't seen what the Big Green are capable of when they are tapered and fresh. Apparently they had two guys fall at Wisconsin and one lose a shoe so that is not the race to judge them by. They will dominate the last 3k and bring the trophy back to Hanover!
lone_sequoia wrote:
Rojo, you really think the the toughness of the VCP course is overrated? Look at the times! It runs a good 30-45 seconds slower despite the fact that things tend to get more tactical at Princeton. The back hills put you in a world of pain within the first 5k, whereas the first 5k of Princeton feels like a tempo. I really do think the Columbia men have a nice advantage from training in the park, but I still think there #4 and #5 are going to hurt them. If they are relying on freshmen with good high school mile/two-mile times they are taking a huge risk.
I think Dartmouth is going to put 8 guys in front of Columbia's #5. Thats how many guys they have that have been consistently cranking 100+ mile weeks for at least a year (some for over two years now). And those miles are not stopping at crosswalks in Manhattan. We are talking about hills twice the size of Cemetery that they climb every day. Beantown was good but the truth is we haven't seen what the Big Green are capable of when they are tapered and fresh. Apparently they had two guys fall at Wisconsin and one lose a shoe so that is not the race to judge them by. They will dominate the last 3k and bring the trophy back to Hanover!
Boom!
I think Harvard puts its together and smashes all the other schools in this boring contrived conference.
I think the men's winner will be around 24:30 while the women's winner will be around 20:40.
Anyways, throwing this idea out there -
What would it take for the Ivy League to get web streaming for the HepsXC meet? I know they were slow on the uptake for getting it for iHeps and oHeps (and even then, it's only Day 2 of competition). I think it would be a smaller time commitment for doing a stream for XC. Get a golf cart, video camera, the routers and servers needed to do get the images to the internet, and then someone with a microphone who has some idea of what is going on with the race. They are already doing it for NCAAs.
Maybe the VCP course layout would make it too difficult to set up due to the hills and narrow trails, but at least the coverage on the open grass fields and then still cameras at select points in the forest that they can cut to or split screen?
Am I asking too much? You're right, I am.
Run positively, Cornell women! Do yourselves proud in the 40th Ivy meet!
GO BIG RED!
donkeyriding wrote:
Time for some predictions. I would guess that the top 20 will look something like this:
1. Thomas Awad of Penn
2. Curtis King of Dartmouth
3. Tom Purnell of Harvard
4. Ben Rainero of Cornell
5. Kevin Dooney of Yale
6. Joey Chapin of Dartmouth
7. James Randon of Yale
8. Michael Sublette of Princeton
9. Jack Boyle of Columbia
10. Aubrey Myjer of Columbia
11. Brian Masterson of Dartmouth
12. Noah Kauppila of Princeton
13. Tait Rutherford of Columbia
14. Dominic DeLuca of Cornell
15. Brian Eimstad of Cornell
16. Steven Sum of Princeton
17. Cameron Stanish of Yale
18. Nicholas Tuck of Penn
19. Brendan Shearn of Penn
20. Ben Huffman of Harvard
I have no idea how the 4's and 5's will shake out. Team-wise I think Columbia, Dartmouth, and Penn are the deepest ones. Princeton always seems to run well but they lose their home-course advantage. The hills could really break things up, which would probably favor Cornell and Dartmouth given their locations.
I scored your predictions through 3 runners.
Here is what i got through 3 runners.
Dartmouth 19
Columbia 32
Cornell 33
Penn 38
Makes me think your predictions aren't very good. Dartmouth's strength is their strength at #4 and #5 not their power up front.
ARe you a Dartmouth alum or something?
chaserofsteeples wrote:
Some definite Cornell and Penn bias, but I did my best to disentangle my picks from my loyalties. Here goes:
1. Ben Rainero, Cornell
2. Thomas Awad, Penn
3. Nick Tuck, Penn
4. Curtis King, Dartmouth
5. Michael Sublette, Princeton
6. Tait Rutherford, Columbia
7. Dominic Deluca, Cornell
8. Brian Masterson, Dartmouth
9. Kevin Dooney, Yale
10. Connor Herr, Cornell
11. Tom Purnell, Harvard
12. Brian Eimstad, Cornell
13. Jack Boyle, Columbia
14. Brendan Shearn, Penn
15. Aubrey Myjer, Columbia
16. Joey Chapin, Dartmouth
17. James Randon, Yale
18. Noah Kauppila, Princeton
19.Cameron Stanish, Yale
20. Steven Sum, Princeton
The way Rainero's running right now, it's hard to see anyone besides Awad taking him down, and Awad hasn't exactly been performing up to par yet this season. Rainero has the speed (4:01 mile to outkick Oregon and Stanford at Penn Relays last year) to hang with Awad and anyone else for that matter. The way Tuck's been running makes me think he's poised to break out big at XC Heps, and other heavy hitters from past years (Purnell, Dooney) have not been themselves this season either. I erred on the side of giving the edge to guys with proven postseason credentials (King, Sublette, etc.) and I think the mid-distance-oriented Princeton in particular will suffer on the VCP back hills. As for Myjer, I was impressed by his performance at Wisconsin but his lack of consistently strong performances keeps him farther back in my books.
As for the team race, I'm gonna be bold and say that Columbia will be fourth behind Cornell, Dartmouth, and Penn. No idea what the order will be in front of or behind them. If that call holds up, Princeton finishing no higher than 5th would be the first time since 2004 they finished that low. We'll see.
I scored the teams using these individuals through 3 runners and think these picks are much better. Here is what I got:
Penn 19
Cornell 20
Dartmouth 28
Columbia 34
Yale 35
Princeton 43
lone_sequoia wrote:
Rojo, you really think the-toughness of the VCP course is overrated?
I think Dartmouth is going to put 8 guys in front of Columbia's #5. Thats how many guys they have that have been consistently cranking 100+ mile weeks for at least a year (some for over two years now). And those miles are not stopping at crosswalks in Manhattan. We are talking about hills twice the size of Cemetery that they climb every day.
I think the course isn't a total non factor but generally I think the best runners win regardless of the course. At a meet this tight, it might make a difference. I think VCP is a legit course so it might hurt a 1500 guy who is barely hanging on for 8k but I had plenty of milers rock VCP. I had a 1:48 guy get 2nd at VCP. Courtney Jaworski also did just fine at VCP.
Dartmouth doesn't seem to have the low sticks one needs to win. It's possible they put everyone between 5 and 20 and win it. The other teams do scare me at #5. That's where they could lose a heps there for sure.
I think VCP is better for Dartmouth which has distance runners as compared to the PRinceton course but the back hills are way overrated. Most of the race takes place on the flats.
I think VCP will highlight the strong runners rather than just the speedy runners.
Live results will be available -
http://www.leonetiming.com/2015/XC/IvyLeague/
Splits will be at the following distances:
Men
2.1K
4.1K
5K
7.1K
Finish
Women
3.1K
4.1K
Finish
Big tails wind today . Beautiful weather. Should be fast
MEN'S TEAM SCORES AT 2.1K
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1. Columbia
1 4 9 13 20 (29) (42) = 47
2. Cornell
2 6 12 19 21 (30) (44) = 60
3. Dartmouth
8 10 15 18 25 (41) (46) = 76
4. Princeton
3 5 22 28 34 (38) (39) = 92
5. Penn
14 16 23 26 32 (33) (35) = 111
6. Yale
7 11 27 31 43 (47) (50) = 119
7. Harvard
17 24 36 37 40 (45) (53) = 154
8. Brown
48 49 51 52 54 (55) (56) = 254