Can Rupp Threaten the WR at 5000?

What's the point of calculating what he could do in a completely perfect race with a rabbit running even splits the whole way if that's never going to happen at any distance anyway?

Purrfect race wrote:

12:55 because the white-boy AR is 12:56.27.

The real AR of 12:53.60 by Lagat is deemed to hard to handle,

I don't think AlSal sees 12:53.60 as too hot for Rupp to handle, and my sense is that Mr Salazar REALLY wants Rupp to have that record. [and I don't think Lagat will be able to take it back at this point.]

Question: What would the AR be for 5000m if Lagat had worked on becoming an American citizen as soon as he arrived at Washington State and had switched his focus to the 5000m immediately after the 2000 Olympics? My best guess - certainly under 12:50, possibly under 12:45, very likely out of Rupp's reach.

dkny64 wrote:

Question: What would the AR be for 5000m if Lagat had worked on becoming an American citizen as soon as he arrived at Washington State and had switched his focus to the 5000m immediately after the 2000 Olympics? My best guess - certainly under 12:50, possibly under 12:45, very likely out of Rupp's reach.

12:45 is a pretty good guess. In a structured race like Nike got Rupp for the recent 10K AR, maybe 12:42. A WR for Lagat doesn't seem in the card even when he was at peak speed.

I still think this prediction thing is insane. An athlete can't just wake up one day and say "oh yes, 124x is definitely within range! Look at Gebriwet or his comrades. They ran sub 1250 2-3 yrs ago. They can't even touch that anymore. How many 5ks are in diamond league and maybe only 1-2 of them are low 1250 or sub efforts. It's just crazy to talk about records so fluently after a guy has the best race of his life. Also, the Salazar boys are not really record breakers. They run to win and if they happen to set a national record then awesome. But I don't see them as a "get me a couple rabbits and let's hammer against the clock." They see (I think) more value in longevity then craziness.

Rupp's 5k is 12:58.9. How does that point to 12:37.35? It doesn't. Rupp may some day break the American Record with a little luck and on the right day, but no chance of every getting close to 12:37.35.

First things first. IN the right race, Rupp could break 12:50. This could happen this year. Gebremeskel talked a month or two ago about wanting to return to Paris where he ran so fast in '12 (I think it was Paris.)

Could be a problem that Rupp is to become a dad about then.

Should Rupp break 12:50, it becomes plausible that he can go faster.

dkny64 wrote:

No. I happened to watch the video of Bekele's 12:37 the other day. It was an absolutely maxed out effort by someone with significantly faster PRs than Rupp at 3000m and at 10000m.

Can Rupp break 12:50? Sure. 12:45? Maybe, but that would make him the #4 performer of all time. 12:40? Not a chance. There are exactly 3 guys who have ever done it - Haile G, Kenny B and Daniel "7:20 for 3000m" Komen. Rupp just isn't at that level.

This is the correct answer.

Horst Girth wrote:

Should Rupp break 12:50, it becomes plausible that he can go faster.

I see it differently. I think if Rupp breaks 12:50, that's about as good as it gets for him unless his 3k PR goes below 7:28.

But why? wrote:Why 12:55? Some magic # there? How many times did Rupp stop in the 26:50's before running under 26:48. The answer is zero. In fact he still hasn't run in the 26:50's. He runs tactical races over 27:00 and fast races under 26:50. The only reason he'd run 26:5X is if he was in a race that was running at 26:58-27:05 pace with a couple laps to go.

At 5000, he will only run 12:55 or 12:53 if that is the kind of race it is. If it's a 12:45-12:48 race, that's where he'll be. No need to stop short or ask for permission to proceed to ability level.

one of the few good posts on this thread

thank you

anyone with a clue woud know Rupp wouda been good for 26'35 if he'd gunned it from start & he has had 3/52 of little/no training spending most of time at wife's hospital bedside

no one shoud doubt that lack of tuning coud cost him as fast as 26'30

as for 3'29/3'30, get a clue

if mo can go 3'28, sal their coach has maintained Rupp's speed is comparable to mo - go look at oxy 1500 where mo barely edged him

Rupp can definitely go 3'30 & 3'50i is solid evidence for this

then why aren't you in diamond league races earning gazillions ???

USA Golds wrote:

I know this is a stretch, but a guy who goes 3:50 & 7:30 indoors and is now in 26:3X shape certainly is ready for a phenomenal 5000, or will be in a few weeks. He's a class ahead of other americans who have done 12:55-12:56, probably at least ready for 12:45-12:48 right now.

I agree with this part of your argument but not your time line that would have him at 12:40 by the end of summer. I think he might be 12:50 right now, 12:47 by end of summer. It takes an absurdly talented runner to dip under 13:00, even more so under 12:50. Sub 12:40 is the realm of Bekele, Geb and Komen and only those 3. Rupp is a phenomenal runner and will likely become the greatest non-african born runner in history (if he isn't considered to be already), but he isn't at the level of those 3.

Rupp's first 5k was 13:26 and 2nd 5k was 13:18. Bekele's 10k WR had 5k splits of 13:09 and 13:08. 17 seconds faster than Rupp on the 1st 5k, 10 seconds faster than Rupp on the 2nd 5k. Rupp probably has the ability to run a little faster, but 13.5 seconds faster per 5k? 2.7 seconds faster per kilometer? No. Bekele was in similar shape when he broke the 5k record and it is definitely comparable to that 10k record. Also, Rupp's racing over the past few years has indicated he is a better 10k runner than 5k runner.

Only 2 runners have ran within 1 second per lap of Bekele's 10k WR since it was set. Micah Kogo and Bekele himself. Rupp was still shy of the 1 second per lap pace which would have been 26:42.53.

There were actually 6 runners at that Paris meet back in 2012 that ran within a second per lap of Bekele's 5k WR. However, Rupp still leaves much to be desired in the 5k with that 12:58 PR (1.72 seconds per lap behind the world record).

He has a lot of ground to make up. Anyone who has ever run competitively at ANY level can tell you that it an incredibly difficult task to shave 1 second per lap off a PR pace and I can only imagine it gets even more difficult at that level. 4:10 mile pace is one thing. 4:03 is a whole other level.

i must admit i'm disappointed here in the "conservative" thinking of many guys here, which is surprising for a supposed "young crowd"

i'm far from being a youngster & can't understand such timid thinking as maybe 12'50, or perhaps even 12'45 - 12'47 for the boldest predictions here

i'm of the age group supposed to have timid predictions not majority of guys here !

this same timid thinking that predicted mo-3'28 & 6 guys 12'46/12'49

at his peak this year, Rupp shoud have ~ one of these lines of fit :

51.1 / 1'47.6 ->

3'31.0

4'46.9

7'22.2

12'41.8

26'31.0

or

50.7 / 1'47.0 ->

3'30.2

4'46.1

7'21.3

12'41.3

26'32.6

or

50.2 / 1'46.2 ->

3'29.0

4'44.7

7'19.8

12'39.6

26'31.7

an experienced eye tends me in direction of last set of estimates

if he gets an ~ perfect race this year, Rupp has a serious shot at 7'20 & 12'40

people stop this timid thinking !

Actually look at Solinsky's PR which is 12:55.53 set in 2010...

WI wrote:

Actually look at Solinsky's PR which is 12:55.53 set in 2010...

So, Rupp has to beat 12:55:52 to achieve the glorious, officially unrecognized, USofA white-boy record.

Sorry, but Rupp has no chance at going anywhere near 12:37. In fact, i'd go as far as to say nobody in the world right now can go anywhere near that time, and nobody will come anywhere close in the near future. If someone were to actually look at the kind of speed and strength required they would understand.

Rupp will never break that record, Mo won't either, they are incredible runners in their own right, but 12:37 is something else.

12:37 comes out to 60 seconds a lap. Think about that.....

I do wonder why Rupp and Farah do not each set up a time trial for themselves and serve as rabbits for each other.

Since they train together all the time and are friends, they should both be comfortable following the other around the track. They are similar in ability level in a time trial situation. Usually what hurts a WR type of effort is the person going after the record slowing down so they have something left to outkick other competitors hanging on the back of them.

Nike should set up a race for each of them with a very solid rabbit that could go to 2-3k, then Farah takes over for Rupp and takes him through 4k to 4.4k then steps off the track. Then, in another effort, Rupp does the same for Farah. They could both drop their PR down to the 1240s. I don't see either of them setting the WR at this point but you never know.

Of course, they would blow out one of their good efforts for the year in a meaningless race with no $, so I guess we'll never see anything like this happen. It's too bad because you rarely see two similarly talented teammates who like each other enough to help the other one out. Usually the top guys don't like to max out unless they are sure they are going to be clear of the field, and they never want to help their competitors achieve a great time.

He will be banned by USADA before he even gets a chance to set the WR...

Matter of fact, USADA will ban all of Oregon Project.

not a chance wrote:

Sorry, but Rupp has no chance at going anywhere near 12:37. In fact, i'd go as far as to say nobody in the world right now can go anywhere near that time, and nobody will come anywhere close in the near future. If someone were to actually look at the kind of speed and strength required they would understand.

Rupp will never break that record, Mo won't either, they are incredible runners in their own right, but 12:37 is something else.

12:37 comes out to 60 seconds a lap. Think about that.....

Actually, it's slightly under 61 seconds per lap.

12:37.35 pace for the 5k is 4minutes, 3.76733[...] second pace per mile. But your point about how ridiculous that pace is, of course, still stands... And to think, with better pace-making, strictly as a matter of principle, that time could have been a bit better. It just blows the mind... where are improvements in these records supposed to come from? Some strange day of mankind when the sub-4 minute mile range (high 3:50s, i.e. 3:55-4:00) become some new "norm" like the fastest 5kers do with attaining low 4:00s (4:10-4:15) pace? :-o

ventolin^3 wrote:

i must admit i'm disappointed here in the "conservative" thinking of many guys here, which is surprising for a supposed "young crowd"

i'm far from being a youngster & can't understand such timid thinking as maybe 12'50, or perhaps even 12'45 - 12'47 for the boldest predictions here

i'm of the age group supposed to have timid predictions not majority of guys here !

this same timid thinking that predicted mo-3'28 & 6 guys 12'46/12'49

at his peak this year, Rupp shoud have ~ one of these lines of fit :

or

50.2 / 1'46.2 ->

3'29.0

4'44.7

7'19.8

12'39.6

26'31.7

an experienced eye tends me in direction of last set of estimates

if he gets an ~ perfect race this year, Rupp has a serious shot at 7'20 & 12'40

people stop this timid thinking !

Ventolin, you seriously think Rupp can get down to 7:20? And you see him improving 21 seconds from his indoor 5,000?