Even in his prime, do we have any evidence that Alan Webb would have excelled at 2 hour events given how much better he was at 800m than at 10k?
Alistair Brownlee wrote:
xenonscreams wrote:Does anyone know Alan Webb's swimming best times? I can't find him in the USA Swimming Database (there is an Alan Webb but it says no results found) so I'm guessing he didn't swim USA Swimming? I heard he swam as an age-grouper though. Just curious.
he swam somewhere around 4:40 - 4:47 for a 500 free.
the402miler wrote:
You do realize the 1500m swim times are artificial? Wet suit provides a huge advantage as does swimming in a pack (25% draft effect). He could hold his own. He only needs to be close to the main pack and then draft easily on the bike. He can do it.
25% draft effect? Really? Get a grip. Also you can only wear a wetsuit up to a certain temperature, swimming in cold temps is NOT an advantage, which the wetsuit offsets.
Also not all triathalons are done in pool like conditions. Some are actually in tough water conditions. You don't just put on a wet suit, draft, and swim 30% faster magically.
Mrr82 wrote:
the402miler wrote:You do realize the 1500m swim times are artificial? Wet suit provides a huge advantage as does swimming in a pack (25% draft effect). He could hold his own. He only needs to be close to the main pack and then draft easily on the bike. He can do it.
25% draft effect? Really? Get a grip. Also you can only wear a wetsuit up to a certain temperature, swimming in cold temps is NOT an advantage, which the wetsuit offsets.
Also not all triathalons are done in pool like conditions. Some are actually in tough water conditions. You don't just put on a wet suit, draft, and swim 30% faster magically.
The wet suit provides much added buoyancy, it is a big help for less experienced swimmers. The temps required to prevent wet suit use are pretty high and don't occur much if at all in ITU events.
Most of the high quality tri events are done in pretty good swim conditions, especially ITU type stuff or many of the top tri events.
I've done enough to know that conditions are generally pretty good for most swim portions of tri's. Kona can get some good swells, but it goes out and back toward shore, so even there it is pretty good swimming.
But, to answer your question, you can put on a wet suit, draft and swim much faster than you would without. as a former runner with no swim background I benefitted tremendously from a wet suit.
What do you think his 10K time will be in a tri? Some yahoo at Slowtwitch predicts 31:40 if drafting and 32:30 if not. That's probably a troll effort.
No way is Webb a 27:34 10K runner anymore, that was 2006 or so. Maybe 28:30--pretty even with Brownlee.
I'm not much of a cyclist, but assuming a strong time in the swim and cycle events what could Webb run?
I'd say 30 min give or take.
tri this... wrote:
Mrr82 wrote:25% draft effect? Really? Get a grip. Also you can only wear a wetsuit up to a certain temperature, swimming in cold temps is NOT an advantage, which the wetsuit offsets.
Also not all triathalons are done in pool like conditions. Some are actually in tough water conditions. You don't just put on a wet suit, draft, and swim 30% faster magically.
The wet suit provides much added buoyancy, it is a big help for less experienced swimmers. The temps required to prevent wet suit use are pretty high and don't occur much if at all in ITU events.
Most of the high quality tri events are done in pretty good swim conditions, especially ITU type stuff or many of the top tri events.
I've done enough to know that conditions are generally pretty good for most swim portions of tri's. Kona can get some good swells, but it goes out and back toward shore, so even there it is pretty good swimming.
But, to answer your question, you can put on a wet suit, draft and swim much faster than you would without. as a former runner with no swim background I benefitted tremendously from a wet suit.
I agree with that, I'm saying pool conditions are temperature perfect, no waves, just great conditions. Wet suits obviously help but they and drafting won't help you 25%+suit over perfect pool conditions. The colder water of many races plus conditions mitigate some of the gain. If say I'm doing a tri in San Fran it won't be close to pool conditions.
Also I agree for less experienced swimmers the gain could be much larger but that's a different topic ya know.
there are many world class triathletes over 30 and racing well fast at the olympic distance (a slightly less than 2 hour race, with a Lactate Threshold swim start, leveling off to just below that, then an 70-75% max hr cycle - if flat, followed by a 10k run - tempo at threshold) ... webb has the LT ability from running to not relegate himself to the ironman/half ironman slog bore-fest. his recent aerobic base from miling fitness carries over perfectly for swimming.
in fact, if he can get his swim up, USA triathlon will fast track him to the ITU world cup series, or whatever they'll call the top level, short course series this year based on the new money.. this is the top level short course racing in the world, like moto gp or formula 1 for you motor sport literate..
his challenge will be the swim alone... world cups are extremely fast swimmers now with 90-95% of the field exiting the water within a 1:00 - 1:20 of each other. if you are off the back, you will be cycling in the last pack. game over..
so for webb his future relies solely on his ability to swim 1500m in open water with guys hitting him... if this is really a possibility, posters should look up his past swim times to see how his swimming was.. he will need to have at least been a 5:00-5:10 500yd freestyler to resume training with confidence about his future as a triathlete...
there are many world class triathletes over 30 and racing well fast at the olympic distance (a slightly less than 2 hour race, with a Lactate Threshold swim start, leveling off to just below that, then an 70-75% max hr cycle - if flat, followed by a 10k run - tempo at threshold) ... webb has the LT ability from running to not relegate himself to the ironman/half ironman slog bore-fest. his recent aerobic base from miling fitness carries over perfectly for swimming.
in fact, if he can get his swim up, USA triathlon will fast track him to the ITU world cup series, or whatever they'll call the top level, short course series this year based on the new money.. this is the top level short course racing in the world, like moto gp or formula 1 for you motor sport literate..
his challenge will be the swim alone... world cups are extremely fast swimmers now with 90-95% of the field exiting the water within a 1:00 - 1:20 of each other. if you are off the back, you will be cycling in the last pack or by yourself. Usually that means game over UNLESS the last pack organizes and works together and the front packs merge and slow down..
so for webb his future relies solely on his ability to swim 1500m in open water with guys hitting him... if this is really a possibility, posters should look up his past swim times to see how his swimming was.. he will need to have at least been a 5:00-5:10 500yd freestyler to resume training with confidence about his future as a triathlete...
Mrr82 wrote:
I agree with that, I'm saying pool conditions are temperature perfect, no waves, just great conditions. Wet suits obviously help but they and drafting won't help you 25%+suit over perfect pool conditions. The colder water of many races plus conditions mitigate some of the gain. If say I'm doing a tri in San Fran it won't be close to pool conditions.
Also I agree for less experienced swimmers the gain could be much larger but that's a different topic ya know.
Sorry, you twisted what I wrote.
It stated 25% draft effect (from swimming in a pack) on another site. That's separate from the wetsuit benefit that is definitely there and can not be quantified. 25% draft effect does NOT mean 25% faster times. The people swimming behind the lead swimmers use considerably less energy and get pulled along.
The whole point is that triathlon is not a time trial except for the run. The drafting effect in the bike is very substantial. And the race will always begin at T2 with the run.
If Webb is too slow on the swim, he could hire some of his own "domestiques" to bring him to the lead pack in the bike. Stuart Hayes pulled along the top GB runners to set them up for the run in the Olympics.
So no reason he can't compete. The swim/bike are mostly irrevelant.
webb to phelps transition wrote:
his challenge will be the swim alone... world cups are extremely fast swimmers now with 90-95% of the field exiting the water within a 1:00 - 1:20 of each other. if you are off the back, you will be cycling in the last pack or by yourself. Usually that means game over UNLESS the last pack organizes and works together and the front packs merge and slow down..
so for webb his future relies solely on his ability to swim 1500m in open water with guys hitting him... if this is really a possibility, posters should look up his past swim times to see how his swimming was.. he will need to have at least been a 5:00-5:10 500yd freestyler to resume training with confidence about his future as a triathlete...
Good post. And I'll add that he could hire strong bike riders (aka domestiques) to exit the water at the same time as him and pull him to the front pack (and possibly ahead of them). Not that he'll need it. He's a good enough swimmer to draft off the front pack of swimmers.
ITU triathlon is a team sport. Webb will be very competitive if he chooses to be.
I am the Walrus wrote:
Exactly. You are all underestimating the current depth in the ITU world cup series. Alan will not be able to compete with the top 25, he might end up in the mid pack next season (2015, IF he qualifies to even compete in world cup races. There are enough guys on American soil that could beat him easily.
I have raced a few world cups ( I am not american), and all of you are underestimating the bike part. It is NOT about whether you can hold a 40km/hr or 45 km/hrs average for the bike leg. It contains a highly technical component to draft in ITU, where you have 4 - 5 lap courses with at least 6 90 - 180 degrees turns in it per lap. Becoming a strong biker is very well possible for Alan, but it takes 3 years (assuming he has no experience to drafting/biking).
I swam 4:06 for a 400m in a 50m pool (no wetsuit), this put me in about the top 10 -15 in terms of swimming ABILITY at the ITU scene (mid to end 2000). This pool ability also does not translate 100% into open water 1500m capability. Again, practice/experience of at least 2 seasons will help you out here to actually exit the water within the top 20.
Running. PR's of 14:18 (in training) and 29:20 on the road. Used to be one of the stronger runners out there, however, since the bike was my weakness, I lost tons of energy there and was only able to really take advantage of my running in a few races ( I never won a world cup, for instance).
Anyways, my point is there is a good chance that Alan would be somewhat competitive in a ITU race style series after 2 - 3 seasons, IF he were to choose to go down that route (we are not even sure).
However, please stop thinking Alan could just hang on to everyone in the first group and drop everyone with his 28 min capability. Top-level triathlon of today requires specific strength-endurance capabilities that first need to be TRAINED.
Don´t bother writing intelligent and knowledgeable posts. This is LetsRun!
What was webbs problem?
he beat rupp in a road 5k a few years ago
why would (the problems) away in the triatalon
Most talented
non african of his era
,
maybe ever
30 km/h are you kidding? that isn't even a good age grouper split. Webb could go faster right now, with no bike training.
ASU Guy is right If he can swim with the pack hang on and draft on the bike, then it comes down to the run.
julia's blog entry is well worth reading - spells it all out clearly.
He's doing his first tri in March, and has been training for a few months already.
agip wrote:
julia's blog entry is well worth reading - spells it all out clearly.
He's doing his first tri in March, and has been training for a few months already.
That really is a great blog post. Thanks for the blog!
Which Triathlon is he doing in March?
Q&A with Webb on the US Triathlon website regarding his decision to switch:
http://www.usatriathlon.org/news/articles/2014/1/012614-alan-webb-qa.aspx
He's aiming for Rio selection
The swim timesSwim times from his last big competition – 1998 Potomac Valley Champs meet- (qualifying times in red) *many are PRs100 Breast – 1:00.79 (59.49)200 Breast – 2:12.09 (2:09.79)200 IM – 2:00.1 (1:56.29)400 IM – 4:11.99 (4:08.09)500 Free – 4:47.00 (4:39.59)1650 Free – 16:44.4 (16:13.69)from when he was like 15. He has to get a bit faster but he is in the ballpark. Of course he is also a lot older and probably doesn't have the swim base he had back then. Personally I think he waited about 2 years too long (in retrospect). In 3 or 4 years when he has gotten the techniques and experience he is going to be on the wrong side of the aging curve.
never worn a singlet wrote:
agip wrote:julia's blog entry is well worth reading - spells it all out clearly.
He's doing his first tri in March, and has been training for a few months already.
That really is a great blog post. Thanks for the blog!
I am the Walrus wrote:
Exactly. You are all underestimating the current depth in the ITU world cup series. Alan will not be able to compete with the top 25, he might end up in the mid pack next season (2015, IF he qualifies to even compete in world cup races. There are enough guys on American soil that could beat him easily.
I have raced a few world cups ( I am not american), and all of you are underestimating the bike part. It is NOT about whether you can hold a 40km/hr or 45 km/hrs average for the bike leg. It contains a highly technical component to draft in ITU, where you have 4 - 5 lap courses with at least 6 90 - 180 degrees turns in it per lap. Becoming a strong biker is very well possible for Alan, but it takes 3 years (assuming he has no experience to drafting/biking).
I swam 4:06 for a 400m in a 50m pool (no wetsuit), this put me in about the top 10 -15 in terms of swimming ABILITY at the ITU scene (mid to end 2000). This pool ability also does not translate 100% into open water 1500m capability. Again, practice/experience of at least 2 seasons will help you out here to actually exit the water within the top 20.
Running. PR's of 14:18 (in training) and 29:20 on the road. Used to be one of the stronger runners out there, however, since the bike was my weakness, I lost tons of energy there and was only able to really take advantage of my running in a few races ( I never won a world cup, for instance).
Anyways, my point is there is a good chance that Alan would be somewhat competitive in a ITU race style series after 2 - 3 seasons, IF he were to choose to go down that route (we are not even sure).
However, please stop thinking Alan could just hang on to everyone in the first group and drop everyone with his 28 min capability. Top-level triathlon of today requires specific strength-endurance capabilities that first need to be TRAINED.
Finally some REALITY injected into this discourse.
It will take Alan 2-3 years to get comfortable to even reach the top of the DOMESTIC/American level.
Good gracious people....this is Triathlon, not Bobsled.
It will be fascinating following Alan in this tri venture, though.