Pollen Counter wrote:
...
Rupp is not a "lock."
Rupp IS a lock.
Period.
End of story.
Pollen Counter wrote:
...
Rupp is not a "lock."
Rupp IS a lock.
Period.
End of story.
Rupp is NOT a lock.
Period.+
The start of a new era.
Continue.
Two of the other three are in sub 13:10 shape and were beaten by Rupp by a second at Pre. True is also probably in 13:10ish shape.
Based on Rupp's last race, he's not a lock. But he still has a 90% chance of making it in the top three. It's not a lock though.
Why is Rupp even in this conversation. Rupp is in AT LEAST 26:35 shape, and has far superior closing speed to any of these other guys.
The real title of this thread should be "Derrick, Ritz or True – Which One Goes Home Devastated?"
Including Rupp in this thread is an insult to everyone that has followed Track and Field on anything besides a superficial level, ever.
The only way Rupp LOSES is a fall in the homestretch. He will still make the team, no matter what. Remember, Rupp is the best runner in the world right now.
Rupp is in the convo because high pollen counts usually means time for the mask. Heat and humidity are not going to work in the favor of someone wearing a mask. So, Rupp has to run without his mask and will inhale a lot of pollen during the 10k. Not good.
I don't know where you are getting your pollen count information, but it is wrong:
Looks right. High expected for Sat in Des Monies, IA.
More specific:
Trees - Moderate
Grass - Very High
Weeds - High
Ritz will go home happy and not make the team.
Teg is there to help Derrick.
Ritz is there to help Rupp.
Ritz probably prefers to focus on Chicago in Oct.
Rupp may lay an egg.
Rupp to win, Ritz for second. Don't care who is third. It's going to be a hot race and Rupp is too fast over the last lap and Ritz is pure nails when it comes to getting a qualifying spot. When was the last time Ritz hasn't had to back off or alter his training for an injury? He's going to be even stronger than next year.
I meant last year, ooops
Thundercats_GO wrote:
I meant last year, ooops
Weather conditions are not Rupp certified; heat, allergies.
Pollen Counter wrote:
The "inferior Americans" who don't have pollen issues can keep the pace honest enough to counter well-known Rupp strategy.
What are they going to do? Crank it down to sub-27 pace and drop Rupp? Or use their 3:50 mile speed to all kick by him at the end? Oh wait...
I don't like to use the word "lock," but if Rupp brings his B game he will still win the race, and if he brings his C game he will still make the team. He got 7th in the Olympics, in his secondary event, after getting silver in the 10k, allegedly suffering from bronchitis, and it was still viewed as a disappointment. Who else has run 3:50i and a 60:30 HM on their first try? And some of you pieces of work think Derrick and some cross country skier could BOTH beat Rupp on the big stage? Give me a break...
Rupp bringing his B game, plus weather = 3rd at best.
C game = mid pack
Conditions R-not Rupp-optimal. Rupp has well-known pollen issues, and he doesn't perform well in warm conditions, as he showed just a few weeks ago.
B gamer wrote:
Rupp bringing his B game, plus weather = 3rd at best.
C game = mid pack
Conditions R-not Rupp-optimal. Rupp has well-known pollen issues, and he doesn't perform well in warm conditions, as he showed just a few weeks ago.
If they're all in tippy-top shape, Rupp could go hard, take a 30-second break to do calisthenics midway through while everyone else huffs and puffs along for half a lap, jump back in and still win the race even if everyone else PRs. Rupp does NOT need his 26:4x/Olympics A-game to win the freaking Olympic Trials. How many straight national titles does he have? You really think he was 100% for all of them? And he's a lot better now than he was in 2009. I was always a Webb fan, but besides Lagat's relatively brief reign as a US citizen at 5k, Rupp is the most dominant US male distance runner in decades.
kartelite wrote:
If they're all in tippy-top shape, Rupp could go hard, take a 30-second break to do calisthenics midway through while everyone else huffs and puffs along for half a lap, jump back in and still win the race even if everyone else PRs. Rupp does NOT need his 26:4x/Olympics A-game to win the freaking Olympic Trials. How many straight national titles does he have? You really think he was 100% for all of them? And he's a lot better now than he was in 2009. I was always a Webb fan, but besides Lagat's relatively brief reign as a US citizen at 5k, Rupp is the most dominant US male distance runner in decades.
You obviously do not understand the sport at all. First of all, this is not the Olympic Trials, so why you would reference that is puzzling. Second, Galen does not have the advantage of being 30 seconds better than the next competitor, and even if he did, it would not permit the unfolding of the race in the manner in which you describe. Galen does not lead, and if he did lead in a manner in which you allude, such that let's say it is warm and Galen takes it out in 13:30 while the pack runs 14:00, and then Galen does light-in-the-loafers jumping jacks for 30 seconds, then there is NO CHANCE that Galen would win, as he does not have much of an advantage in a 5000m race against several of them, and he would have blown his chance due to the inefficient allocation of resources. Galen is superior to Derrick, True and Ritz at 5000m, but it is not by enough to turn it into a 5000m race after he has ostensibly blown his wad by running suicidally in the first half.
I agree the weather is not ideal for Rupp, but its not going to be ideal for anyone in the field. Moreover, when was the last time we actually saw Rupp really blow a race, for pollen or any other reason? Even more so, have we EVER seen him blow (not lose, but truly blow) a championship race?
Sure, he has bailed out of less important races for high pollen, but you have to imagine that's because he keeps his eye on the prize, keeping himself healthy for when it matters. And sure, he didn't have a stellar performance at Pre... he still beat the other guys in the field, when they looked strong and he looked strained. I feel like we just saw Rupp's B game, and he still came out on top... so no, he can't do jumping jacks and still make the team... but even if he has a terrible day, he will find a way on that team.
Like a few others have said, I don't like the world "lock" because the whole point of running the race is that no one is a "lock"... but Rupp has done nothing but perform at the highest level, consistently, for years now. Its going to take a lot more than some pollen for me to doubt what he can do.
I think its a tough call who will make the team this year. A faster race will help out Ritz, but last year it was to Rupp's benefit to help him chase the A standard. The cooler, wet conditions enabled Rupp to run faster and keep away from potential slips or falls. I don't think that's happening this year.
I am hoping in a kick True and Derrick make it. Derrick is a young gun, and is primed to become great over the next few years. True is having the year of a lifetime, and I hope he is rewarded with a spot. I would like to see Ritz's consistent training will help him run an awesome time in Chicago.
Ritz ran 12:56 (and that's without being able to kick).
SPMBLNPF wrote:
kartelite wrote:If they're all in tippy-top shape, Rupp could go hard, take a 30-second break to do calisthenics midway through while everyone else huffs and puffs along for half a lap, jump back in and still win the race even if everyone else PRs. Rupp does NOT need his 26:4x/Olympics A-game to win the freaking Olympic Trials. How many straight national titles does he have? You really think he was 100% for all of them? And he's a lot better now than he was in 2009. I was always a Webb fan, but besides Lagat's relatively brief reign as a US citizen at 5k, Rupp is the most dominant US male distance runner in decades.
You obviously do not understand the sport at all. First of all, this is not the Olympic Trials, so why you would reference that is puzzling. Second, Galen does not have the advantage of being 30 seconds better than the next competitor, and even if he did, it would not permit the unfolding of the race in the manner in which you describe. Galen does not lead, and if he did lead in a manner in which you allude, such that let's say it is warm and Galen takes it out in 13:30 while the pack runs 14:00, and then Galen does light-in-the-loafers jumping jacks for 30 seconds, then there is NO CHANCE that Galen would win, as he does not have much of an advantage in a 5000m race against several of them, and he would have blown his chance due to the inefficient allocation of resources. Galen is superior to Derrick, True and Ritz at 5000m, but it is not by enough to turn it into a 5000m race after he has ostensibly blown his wad by running suicidally in the first half.
You're right, it's not the OTs this year, but it's the same race and generally the level of competition is the same whether there it functions as the OTs or not. 13:30 - in great conditions - would not be suicidal for Rupp. If he went out in 13:30, and the other guys in 13:45 (that's a more relevant comparison, 15 seconds per 5k), and then he did the jumping jacks, I bet he would be able to run down at least one, and very likely all three of them.
No way he'd be able to run all of them down after doing that. He just beat them by 1 second in his last race. These three guys are in legit shape.