Ryan Hall 1:03:53

I agree, particularly with your first sentence.

Hall has a history of producing less-than-stellar performances during the run-up to a marathon, so my expectations for him in this race weren't high. Granted, this near-1:04 misses even my low expectations of him in these circumstance but I could still shrug it off. Didn't see the race, but I understand he got in over his head with fast early pace and faded badly. If you know that you're not very sharp in the run-up to a marathon, don't bust out at the gun like you are; that never ends well. A little stupidity on that front probably accounted for some of the fat in that time.

But, like anything else, trends and patterns are far more instructive than any individual performances, and Hall's trend has been decidedly down long enough that it's now genuinely cause for concern. The constant pulling out of races (especially when he raced so rarely) and significantly sub-par performances when he did race have become the norm the last couple of years. This race, in that context, becomes only a piece in an overall puzzle that is beginning to form a less-than-attractive picture.

As for your comment about all the hard, long tempo runs cooking him, I think it goes much deeper than that. Hall has a history going all the way back to high school of cooking himself in training. That issue didn't start with Terrence. If anything, it was the continuation of what has been a chronic, ongoing problem for him. That may have been the proverbial straw that broke the camel's back. Malmo, you know even better than I do that guys who continue to cook themselves in training over time eventually get themselves into a state from which they never recover. Maybe Hall's reached that state, I dunno.

But contrast his slump with Webb's . Webb is in a similar boat, if not worse. This summer marks the fourth anniversary of that incredible 2007 season and he hasn't been relevant on even the national, let alone world, stage since then. He's missed making two national teams in that time span.

But I look at Webb, and he's made changes to try and get back that all seem positive. He's lighter and leaner, had (reportedly) successful surgery on that pesky achilles and is now in a situation with both a coach and a training group with more experience and resources than he had previously. His 3:36 late last summer, his 3:53 at 5th Avenue, his win in a 5K road race over Rupp and his recent 3:37 the first week in March all show faint glimmers that he might finally be working through all the injury issues and beginning to re-establish the foundation that he's certainly lost the last three years. While I can't recall an example of an athlete falling that far and staying down that long who returned to full form, I also can't recall someone who made all the changes Webb did to try and get back. I don't think all hope is lost yet for Webb.

But Hall? He went the opposite direction that Webb did. Webb put himself in position to be surrounded by as many knowledgeable, experienced people as he could with the maximum resources available. Hall, on the other hand, withdrew from such a group. Maybe what is doing will pay dividends for him. Some guys do better as lone wolf. Only time will tell.

Hall posted this on his blog recently:

I think this is generally a step in the right direction for him, and I think it shows some pretty good perspective on his part. I was very glad to see him announce that he'll be racing more, something I think we all agree he needed to do. Racing is a skill unto itself and, like any skill, you have to do it to hone it.

I've said for the last couple of years that, while I supported his move to the marathon because he's obviously well-suited for it and it's likely his best event, he needs to drop down and spend some time training and racing down distance, too. I still think he could (or least could have at one time) produce a major bomb at 10,000 but he's never once targeted the event seriously. His 59:43 is about a 26:55-ish equivalent, and those two events cross-pollinate very well. If he's going to race more, those races will be down distance. That's a good thing as far as I'm concerned. The Oly Trials are only ten months away, so a fall marathon won't (or at least certainly shouldn't) happen.

He's in an odd place right now, and only time will tell if this was the right decision for him or not. But if he lays a major egg in Boston, I'll bet he's going be questioning everything, including how much longer he wants to keep beating his head against the wall.

I think "fluke" races are more-so just races where everything went PERFECT. The build up, the taper, the race, the weather, everything. His 2:06:17 and 59:43 are PHENOMENAL times, for any country.

However, we really can't put down his 61 & 62 half's either. They've all been run while he's been training for a marathon, and to be blunt, America really doesn't have a ton of guys who can take a legitimate shot at him from the half up. You have Trafeh, who's progressing along greatly, Carney is past his prime, Meb is close, but seems stuck in the 62-63 area, Ritz has a shot, but is always injured, then a handful of other guys.

When you look at Hall, he's our most consistent, competitive marathoner. One can argue Meb (and i'd be inclined to agree), but the fact that Hall almost ALWAYS goes sub 2:10 on SLOW courses (read: Boston, New York), you're looking at a guy who's always going out there and running 2:07 efforts...

But that's just me.

Dropped wrote:

The lead pack dropped Hall early in the race on the hills of Central Park, and a few posters on other threads said the opening mile or two was rather "pedestrian" for this caliber race. To get dropped that early and to look so miserable when he passed me on the West Side Highway, especially with the favorable tailwind, points to Hall being in trouble.

For anyone who's guessing that Hall either tempoed through the race or ran tired or both, his splits don't suggest this. The leaders went out in 5:02 before picking it up to about 4:45's and hitting 5K in 15:05. Hall was there the whole time. The pack kept rolling along and averaged 4:41's for the next 5K, while Hall maintained 4:45ish and dropped back 15 seconds. When the runners got outside the park, most of them accelerated, whereas Hall kept slowing despite the newfound wind advantage, with 5K segments of 15:05 and 15:29. That 15K to 20K stretch was glaringly slow given that Rupp and a few others actually ducked under 14:00 for this split.

None of this hearkens to holding back on purpose. When runners of this caliber run races as workouts, they much more often run from the back and pick people off, and finish strongly for purposes of a mental boost. When they go in tired, they still tend to run pretty evenly and "flatten out" at a given pace or effort level. Hall's race suggests (but obviously doesn't "prove") that he didn't do whatever he hoped to do on Sunday morning. That doesn't mean he won't run well at Boston, but it essentially states that he wasn't holding anything in reserve on account of his impending marathon.

I think there's a word for the people rooting for hall who feel better about a 1:03:53 than they would have a 60-flat or a win. Maybe "pollyanna" or "panglossian" or something. Or ignorant. Or all three. It's easy to point at elites throughout history who have tanked a marathon in the wake of a fast half, but to establish correlation you'd have to look at whether this is really more prevalent than running both a nice half and a nice marathon in sequence. It happens a lot.

As far as what's on his blog, I didn't read it. No reason to. If he shit the bed, what do you expect him to say? Even if he believes that a voice booming down from the heavens and audible only to him intoned "drop back, my son, today is a day for SUCK!" at the halfway point, he knows better than to publicize this. he doesn't have the luxury schlubs do or getting online and saying "Well, that was dog crap and so am I. Doubt I have a chance in hell at Boston, but there's always October!"

Like many, I didn't think that leaving Mahon, whatever in fact prompted this, necessarily spelled doom, but right now he's not much of a competitor. I doubt his "faith" has a lot to do with this as he's been very godly for a long time, but in any case he doesn't seem hungry. This can change in a single race, though.

gfdagasfs wrote:

And how fast did YOU run for 26.2 off of that 61-minute half marathon, malmo? Care to share?

2.13.29

you are idiots! his splits exactly suggest that he was tired/sluggish (and probably has been doing solely tempo-related efforts, as it appears the efforts on the hilly part of the course and the 445 pace pushed his fitness)...whereas rupp clearly looks to be coming off of 10k and track-based training.

*

M 501 | x

I 459 | x

L 451 | xo x

E 445 | x

439 | o

A 431 | o

V 428 | o

G 424 | o

* |________________________________________

1505 1448 1505 1529 326(last 1.1km)-->hall-x

1505 1427 1404 1353 301(last 1.1km)-->rupp-o

*5K SPLITS*

im not speaking to what shape he is for boston (though i would imagine 209 might be realistic).

how about this one:

B 1/29 | *

V 2/05 |_________*_____

DNF US Champ

you gotta love letsrun...

Uhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh PowerPoint please

malmo wrote:

gfdagasfs wrote:

And how fast did YOU run for 26.2 off of that 61-minute half marathon, malmo? Care to share?

2.13.29

pwned

Just think of what all the guys behind him had to hear when they got home. "You got beat by a young American running his first half-marathon and he was wearing a Darth Vadar mask?!"

dean moriarty wrote:

I can only imagine how tough it would be to coach yourself, train alone, think things are going ok, and then go run a tune-up race and get smoked. His confidence must be obliterated. I don't think Hall is finished, but don't you need some reference points in training? He seems to think that the key to success is tempo runs.

And what happens when you run them too hard because you

believe that a certain pace should be tempo. Training on

your own, there's no coach to reel you in, and you are no

longer walking a fine line.

malmo wrote:

gfdagasfs wrote:

And how fast did YOU run for 26.2 off of that 61-minute half marathon, malmo? Care to share?

2.13.29

so slower than hall.

malmo wrote:

so god-awful slow that he would have to be dragging his feet on the ground Fred Flintstone style to do it ---

Malmo - You're the absolute best at turn of phrase, but anyone who's seen Flintstone bowl knows he's up on his toes.

malmo wrote:

Perhaps Terrance fried him on those ridiculously hard tempo runs and won't ever get it back?

Awesome. malmo throwing the "overtraining" book at someone. This is good. Keep it coming everyone.

Facts of life for Hall

1) he is full of s***

2) he will either drop out of the race or run slower than 2:10

3) he will blame it on God and say that he had a different calling for him.

4) he is going downhill from now on

I would have been nervous about this originally, but it was be remembered Ryan Hall literally JUST ran 62:20 TWO months ago. That would be a harder effort too on that course than in NY because it was on a course with sharp turn arounds, no net downhill, and no 12 mph wind. A 62:20 is good for being in marathon training, and now he is in the heart of his training so it can be expected that he'd run slower for this race. He has clearly not slipped from a 62 runner to a 64 runner, but rather he has just been tired more with more intense training than he had in January.

I'm reminded of a conversation I had with Joe Vigil circa 2007. Vigil was disappointed that Hall was in the process of moving up to the marathon so early and that he would be better served by spending a few seasons on the track. Even after a few very successful initial outings at the distance, Vigil was under the impression that Hall had still made a mistake in going with the longer distances at his age. Admittedly, I thought Joe was off his rocker, but he again has just proved to me that he is one of the most underrated coaches in the history of the sport.

We defer to Malmo because he heard Bill Rogders fart in 1981

gray wrote:

malmo wrote:

2.13.29

so slower than hall.

okay that's good Malmo, but you were no Dylan Wykes

fgfg wrote:

okay that's good Malmo, but you were no Dylan Wykes

Your point?

fgfg wrote:

gray wrote:

so slower than hall.

okay that's good Malmo, but you were no Dylan Wykes