Solinskys to go splints at the 2006 NCAAs
2000 5:10.5 68.9
1600 4:01.6 62.1
1200 2:59.5 60.7
800 1:58.8 60.7
400 58.1
200 29.1
Solinskys to go splints at the 2006 NCAAs
2000 5:10.5 68.9
1600 4:01.6 62.1
1200 2:59.5 60.7
800 1:58.8 60.7
400 58.1
200 29.1
malmo wrote:
YES, I am vehemently disagreeing with you that he could've been plus or minus 3 seconds in that record run. That's an absurdity.
Let me try to make this simple:
I am saying that I am very confident that Bekele was in the +- 3 second window that I gave. I don't care what the likelihood of him being at +3 seconds is, it could be zero for all I care. I am just saying he was in that window. I used +-3 seconds as an example. I could have said that he was somewhere within a +- 30 second window of 8:37.54 at 3400 meters and that would have been a very _reasonable_ statement; it just wouldn't have been very useful.
A useful statement would be: I am confident that Bekele was not more than 1.2 seconds slow at the 3400 mark on his 4th km average pace. This implies that he did not run the final mile under 4 minutes.
Another useful statement would be: It is possible that Bekele was more than 1.4 seconds slow at the 3400 mark on his 4th km average pace. This implies that he did run the final mile in under 4 minutes.
Since we are talking about approximate 1.3 seconds over 400m, and given that runners often speed up at the end of a race, I think that given the splits we have - we definitely do not have enough information to rule out the possibility that Bekele ran the final mile in under 4 minutes. In other words, I think it is possible that he was at 8:38.9 or so at 3400, instead of 8:37.54 which you calculated assuming constant speed over 3000-4000m.
MAKid wrote:
Since we are talking about approximate 1.3 seconds over 400m, and given that runners often speed up at the end of a race, I think that given the splits we have - we definitely do not have enough information to rule out the possibility that Bekele ran the final mile in under 4 minutes. In other words, I think it is possible that he was at 8:38.9 or so at 3400, instead of 8:37.54 which you calculated assuming constant speed over 3000-4000m.
You spoke too soon. Malmo provided additional information which probably rules out the possibility of a sub 4:00 mile for Bekele.
malmo wrote:
FWIW, a poster on TAFN message board reported contemporaneously on May 31, 2004 that Bekele's splits were:
60, 2:02, 4:05, 7:37, 8:07, 11:39(ltg), 27.9