NCAA Men's 1500m - Who wins?

Lomong is scary. I get the feeling that everybody in the 800, 1500, and 5000 are secretly hoping he'll choose another event. The ease with which he went by Solinsky at indoors was sobering.

irun wrote:

Let's face it- with the exception of Rupp possibly dominating the 10,000, although I'm not sure he will at NCAA's because being a tactical race, I'm sure if McDougal and Rohatinsky are in it they'll be right there with him, and McDougal has developed some pretty good speed this season, but what I was originally going to say is that this could be one of the most competitive NCAA meets in a while. All the 800m finalists from last year are returning, plus a good number of 1500m runners. The 5000 should be interesting with Solinsky and whoever else may decide to race it as well, because there certainly have been some other good times thrown in there, plus there are guys who may kind of be under the radar right now(Pifer, Vaughn, Baumgartner?, Pilkington, Overall, etc.). Should be some good races.

The 10k and 5k are going to be stellar races, but I'm especially looking forward to the 10k. I'm assuming that Flocast will be there to document it in it's entirety? Going to be fun to watch where McDougal and Rupp try to make their big moves.

Here's to Flocast!

Indeed, Lomong is scary.

Lomong will have the lead thru 1200 after going through the 800 in 1:57.. Max Smith will pass Lomong with 300 to go, but Lomong will stick with him. Then at 200 to go Manzano will make a huge surge, pass both with 120 to go... then out of nowhere AJ Acosta will pass all three in a space of about 30 meters, outkick Manzano, and sprint away for the win, beating Manzano by about 20 meters.

READ: SARCASM

the way i read is that smith, manzano are favourite off an honest pace, but Lomong and Lancashie would back themselves in a kick. The trouble is the last couple of years someone has freaked out and done something stupied, Lancashire dropping a 53 3rd lap!!! Lukezic leading out at mid 3.30 pace!!! these silly moves cost both these guys the race, and I can see it happening again, and again Smith, Manzano and Rono will be there to pick up the pieces. Those 3 guys got rewarded last year for being the last to move! Everyone is waaaay to jumpy!

Where was that 1:45 by Lancashire? Great call!!!

GO BILLY BERLIN!!!!!

ok tommy lanks ran 145 at georgia tech last year towards the end of the year. too lazy to look it up but i'm sure fsu website has results from last year.

I don't know how the Nationals qualifications system works, so could someone clear this up--is Lancashire going to Nat's?

But Lomong has a 147 pr and he's run it rather consistently. With Lancashire out, he's the fastest guy in the field. On top of that, his strength is far superior to anyone, he was 4th in xc! and the guy cruised past Solinsky who is one of the best 3k runners we have seen in a while on the college seen. watch out for him. Slow pace, honest pace, my bet is on Lomong.

well now that regions are over, what are yall's picks?

Manzano, Rono (yes, I am aware that he did not place high at regionals), Lomong, Smith, Pifer

Pifer may have not run any jaw dropping times, but he has run 3:40 several times and has been right behind Manzano several times as well. If he can get his peaking right, I could see him running high 3:37 or 3:38. Again, he is more of a distance guy, and will most likely take make sure the pace is fast. He's run in the 13:40s and was 10th(?) in xc this year. His 800 best is 1:49(?) which does not compare to guys who've run 1:47 or faster.

Can't wait to see it all go down.

It will be a Big 12 guy...Im not saying who, but it will be someone from the Big 12.

Lomong finished in 38.9; who else can run that fast for a flat 300m. I thought that Manzano was fast but he better hope that someone else tries desparately to burn Lomong out or else he and everyone else is in a race for second. 38.9 is 51.96 pace, and apparently he was moving pretty hard from 500m out, so it was not quite a 300-only party. I would put Lancashire's chances of moving from #5 at Regionals to #1 at NCAA at well below 1%, but that might be an overestimate.

Pifer will be leading hard at 1100 to burn off the kickers; this will work against all but Lomong.

pifer has only ran a 3:40... what makes you think him taking it out hard is going to burn out guys like manzano, who have p.r.'s that are considerably faster?

I think that Peter Van-de-weustizen of Nebraska (sp?) has a shot at winning it. Sometimes it doesn't come down to who has run a faster time, its just who runs a better race that day, you know?

Any one of 8-9 guys could win in Sacto. Manzano is a proven quantity in big races, Lomong is the new guy with huge upside potential, Pifer could be ready, and anyone with a great kick is in it. Lancashire, Solares, any of the guys with sub-1:48 8's.

I will amend my prediction scemario: Pifer will actually be setting up Manzano for 2nd (Leo kicks well off of a fast pace), but none of this matters where Lomong is concerned; he will easily prevail.

eat me wrote:

pifer has only ran a 3:40... what makes you think him taking it out hard is going to burn out guys like manzano, who have p.r.'s that are considerably faster?