About to find out if Molly Siedel is an ultramarathoner

I also don't think it'll happen, but not because it's her debut.

In 2021 Adam Peterman finished 2nd at the Pikes Peak marathon to LetsRun favourite Seth DeMoor (not relevant but always worth a mention), then moved to ultras winning JFK 50 (which Molly would absoultely smash) and a couple other 50ks, before debuting at 100k to win a golden ticket at Canyons in 2022. He then lined up at States and won in his debut 100 miler. Okay he got slightly lucky that Jim wasn't there and Hayden paced it horribly and it was a hot year that lead to others blowing up. Just don't doubt someone out becasue it's their debut 100, its happened in recent history.

If it's a hot year and theres some carnage with the top contenders, and Molly has learnt from skipping aid/fuel, then theres a possibility. I'm all in on Jen though, it'll be her debut as well (if she takes the ticket - I know she held it up, but she also asked Craig Thornley afterwards if she could think about it), but I think she'd absolutely smash it.

If she held up the Willy Wonka ticket and said, can I think about it, then she was probably following her gut feeling that's telling her its probably not worth it. If her friends and sponsors now convince her to do it, it'll be for reasons other than winning. WS is like the olympics now, and golden tickets are like the Olympics qualifiers.

Magdalena Boulet, although not an olympic medalist, would be a great role model and will undoubtedly offer some advice.

Reminds me of Anita Ortiz, multiple Pikes Peak champion. She won Western States 100 at her first 100 mile attempt in 2009 and came back for a 25+ hour finish in 2011. She was a mountain running expert and not a road marathoner.

She spent her career on the roads, recently took some time (years?) off, and was up against runners that have been been exclusively focusing on trail/technical ultras for years. Even if she has more innate talent than the 3 runners that finished ahead of her, I wouldn't have expected her to win this year.

If she can stay focused and injury-free for 1-2 years, I see good things in the future for her.

This isn't really a reflection on Molly S as it is on social media, but having only briefly glanced at a post on Insta yesterday I had genuinely thought she won the race. Looking back now, the caption never claimed this (quite clearly says fourth) but the comments were full of stuff like "She's already one of the all time greatest ultramarathoners".

Nobody cares, it's ultra

FYI, your comment was #108 on an ultra thread.

Impressive debut for Molly. 8:25 is just 9 min slower than the old course record. She beat two very good pro ultra runners (Abby Hall and Shea Aquilano). The top runners absolutely scorched the course record by about 15 minutes. So, Molly being 25 min + off the lead isn't really indicative of her performance.

Don't get me wrong, fitness and the ability to withstand high mileage training matters a lot. But there are so many things that are massively important in a trail 100k or 100m that don't even come into play in a marathon. Stuff like balance/footing, nutrition, hydration, salt intake and cooling.

Let's just look at the 3 women who finished in front of Molly.

• Jenn Lichter - Track/XC at Toledo. 2:39 marathon PB, but apparently not an OTQ legal course. Previously a specialist at 50k and below mountain races with a long history of impressive course records. Great coaching and Nike/ACG sponsor support to execute on those small details I mentioned above. Nailed it in her first 100k.
• Anne Flower - ER doctor who apparently didn't compete as an adult runner before her late 20s. Dabbled on the roads with an OTQ, 2:42. Self-coached, but appears to be well connected in the ultra scene, had coach and WSER 2025 F7 Hannah Allgood on her crew at Leadville for example. Before Saturday, her last loss in a trail race was the 2023 Pike Peak marathon. New Hoka sponsorship this year.
• Tara Dower - Played rugby for 3 years during college. Started as a through-hiker on the AT after college. No evidence of competitive running as an adult until age 27. Overall FKT on the AT. Insane ability to push through pain and tiredness. Recovers from races better than anyone and runs more races than anyone, probably too many. Is planning to run WSER and Hardrock this year on a 2 week turnaround. Coached by Megan Roche.

Another name I want to bring up is Caleb Olson, 2025 WSER Champion at 29 YO and #2 WSER time all-time behind Walmsley.

HS XC runner, Software Developer, Long history of mountaineering, Rainier multiple times in HS, Denali as an adult, etc. Started trail racing after college at 23 YO and was good from the start. Sponsored by Nike/ACG. In the leadup to WSER 2025 he was coached by Jack Keunzel at Evoke, probably the hottest coaching company in the sport after the 2 UTMB wins this year by Tom Evans and Ruth Croft.

Even though it worked, he hated WSER training and went back to self-coaching afterwards. Now says that WSER is too flat and boring to train for and it ruins his summer adventures in the mountains, lines up with his previous statements that he only started trail running so he could move faster in the mountains when he wasn't racing. Is planning to focus on more mountainous races like UTMB for the foreseeable future.

Trail ultras are not well predicted by track and road race results. Adults with minimal or no high level running background routinely work their way into the top echelon of the sport. Many of them have relevant skills/experience like long histories of non-competitive outdoor recreation or high performing careers that are focused on details or even both, but going from that to winning big trail races is a massive step.

There just isn't a singular archetype or pattern for predicting success in the sport, other than the deep desire to move fast in the mountains and secondarily discovering that they have the durability to withstand the training.

As to Molly, she led the race in the less technical areas early on, and got passed by more experienced and better trail runners in the more technical areas as you would expect. Great debut from her, but she will need to continue developing her skills on the trails to progress. It's highly unlikely that her fitness was the reason she didn't win on Saturday.

I would agree with most of what you are saying, however, many or most ultra runners get into ultra racing because they did not perform at a high level in the marathon. Lichter ran a 2:39:09 California International Marathon, while good, not even close to Seidel. Its net downhill and point to point. If she had raced a certified course (for records) like New York she would have been in the mid-2:40s. That is not even close to consideration for Worlds or Olympics.

So, while a fit medallist in the marathon isn't necessarily going to dominate an ultra in the first couple of goes, they typically don't give the specific training and racing a serious go due to being able to compete (earn money) racing in the 2:18-2:24-range or 2:04-2:08 for men. For example, Cam Levins (2:05:36) would not even consider a 50K until his international career is over. And why would he. Troyer has a 10,000m pb of 30:45. While good at a local level, Levins ran 27:19 before moving up to the marathon. There is a world of difference in athletic talent between these two.

So while the sport has changed let's give Seidel a few races to show her stuff.

Well said.

This is always the argument: If top Marathon runners would enter ultrarunning times would drop.

It has never really happened.
Why? Top Marathon runners focus on Marathon races. Once their Marathon career is over, most bodies are done from decades of hart training.
There are very few exceptions who made a small dent in the ultramarathon world like Alberto Salazar at the Comrades Marathon.

It will be very interesting to see what Molly Seidel is capable off.
Can she win Western States in a few years? It's possible but I wait until I actually see it.

Jim Walmsley came into the sport wanting to do course records everywhere. He had to learn the hard way that other countries have great runners too and they are doing running just on the side while tending to their vineyards or engineering job.

Ultrarunning, especially trail ultrarunning is a complex sport and unless you have done it, you have no idea what you are getting into.

First of all, the course I ran 7:52 at Black Canyon in 2016 was probably about 2-miles longer (with more climbing and more singletrack) than the course I ran 7:52 at this year. It's short now at just under 61-miles vs the 63 miles it used to be. So there's that....

The whole "Deep Canyon" section (50km finish line) and running on the dirt roads out of there make it a "faster course" nowadays. It was also cooler this year compared to many prior years (not like cloudy, but like 70 instead of 80). Weather plays a bigger role in ultra races because of the exposure and duration.

So no, I'm not "as fast" as I was when I was 30 at this event and pre-pulmonary embolism (I'm an "old and kinda fit" 40 now!). In my defense in 2016 I was coming off back-back marathon races at CIM (where I was 10th place) and Houston (2:20) and had barely done any trail running or Long Runs all winter in 2016. I won by about 50-minutes over guys like Chris Mocko that year.

But Jennifer and Anne going sub 8-hours on Saturday was totally ridiculous. Like super amazing performances! Hans also ran incredible to hit 7:20, but these top two women were only like 7-8% behind (when usually the spread is more like 10%). Tara (despite her falls) also had a great race and course PR and Molly ran pretty dang well. I was actually surprised how far back Des Linden was in the 50km though (who knows how much she specifically trained for this as Marathon Des Sables is coming up?)?

Jennifer also went 5:54 or so at Speedgoat...which if you know that course you know how great of a performance that is. She apparently had a 140 mile training week going into Black Canyon. I'd be confident to bet that she is probably closer to 2:30 flat marathon shape now...especially on a course like CIM.

On Saturday I started off around 20th place overall and split about 3:00 through "the first marathon". The top 3 women (including Molly) were probably within 5-6-min of me at that point (and then obviously Anne and Jennifer started gaining on me a bit!). So they are opening up the race with a 3:05-3:06 marathon. Granted it's a net downhill, but the rocks and turns on a lot of the singletrack trail certainly make 7:00/min mile pace a lot more intense with the relative HR and feelings of fatigue. Not to mention carrying 1L of water/fluid and a fanny pack full of gels and you're hauling an extra 3lbs....

I've said this over and over the past 14 years that I've bee in ultra-mountain-trail running (coming from a decent level on the roads):

"Marathon fitness generally correlates very well to ultra-trail running. Sure, sometimes the 2:12 guy gets beat by the 2:20 guy, but they are usually crushing the 2:40 guy. For Women it would be more like: the 2:24 marathoner sometimes gets beat by the 2:35 marathoner...but they are crushing the 2:52 marathoner" The steeper and more technical the course (think like SkyRunning events or events like UTMB which is not technical but has a lot of gear requirements and 20%+ grade slopes) sometimes things can be more drastic of course....but even the Ruth Crofts or the Courtney Ds or the Jim Ws or Tom Evans of the world can all run pretty fast marathons....

Sure there are "some other variables" that can go exponentially wrong in the longer ultras (mainly hydration issues and stomach issues honestly), but these are aerobic based events that depend highly on pure endurance fitness. The more runnable the trail, the higher the correlation as the spectrum of paces is a better match (unlike "powerhiking" or jumping on technical rocks etc).

With Running Economy (efficiency) being the name of the game, being fit enough to run 5:45 or 5:30 min per mile on a road for a marathon translates generally pretty well to being able to run 7:30-8:20-min per mile on a "runnable trail" like the Black Canyon course for 3 times the duration of a road marathon event o,p. Western states has even more smooth sections, but the fact that it's 100-miles (and can be quite extreme heat) can really mess you up and cause a big, expotential melt down (me in 2016 for example).

So GI issues and dehydration/fueling issues aside, if you have the aerobic fitness (Threshold fitness and velocity at Vo2max) the only other main physical "limiting factor" is muscular endurance (avoiding "sheer muscle failure" like cramps) and a breakdown in what I call "Variable Running Economy." The legs and core muscles must be strong and they must be coordinated enough to stay efficient over the long haul on variable terrain. You need to be able to sustain relative power output and coordinate your stride so you're not tripping all over the place and you're not wasting energy too much.

That can make it very different from "just road running", but high mileage training, high carb fueling, strength work/plyos, and accumulated volume sessions at LT1 can certainly help with that "conversion" imo.

A lot of focus here on Seidel's marathon background, but it's important to note she's done a lot more than medal at the Olympics. She's had some turkey trot success that it would seem would translate well to elite endurance trail events. While a lot of turkey trotters race with essentially a token costume, like a lightweight turkey skirt or perhaps a long sleeved turkey t-shirt, Seidel chooses to race in style with a floppy ill-fitting brown fleece number. It doesn't appear terribly runnable, but she's kicked down many a pilgrim in that suit. I would never underestimate Seidel, or a turkey.

This is only true in the sense that there are a lot of good ultrarunners who simply don't have any meaningful road resume, but success at ultras is absolutely related to VO2max, just like every other endurance event. If someone is a top pro ultrarunner and doesn't have a decent marathon PR, it's because they just haven't bothered.

Now, it is absolutely true that being an aerobic beast is not sufficient for ultra success. You need an iron stomach, you need legs adapted to lots of downhill running (uphill training is overrated), you need some degree of trail agility, and you need a different kind of stubborn toughness (which is mostly acquired with practice). And even if you have all those things, the longer the race, the more possibility there is for randomness. Great ultrarunners still have bad days and DNFs.

When those things come together, Molly should dominate ultrarunning within a year or two, at least on US courses. I don't think there's ever been a legit sub-2:30 talent in women's ultrarunning, excluding people who started running trails over the age of 40 like Magda. Even Ruth Croft only ran 2:34. Maybe you can make the case that some current ultra athletes could squeeze out a 2:29, but that's still a long ways off. There's just no substitute for being head and shoulders above your competition aerobically.

Pretty impressive that the top three women have the same marathon ability as you.

Congrats on your great race Sage!

maybe another reason is the TUE she couldn't get that doesn't need on the trails?