She was 48 seconds faster than Sophia Kennedy’s course time last year, and Kennedy went 15:26 at BU in December.
You might be right. Using last year’s data points may not be most accurate since the times could be impacted by weather and surface conditions. Comparable performance against others could be more telling, assuming they are applying the same effort during the race. Sophia Kennedy’s 2025 outdoor 5k TiC is 15:09, and her 2024 Gans Creek TiC is 16:00 even.
I counted 13 east african sounding/looking names in the top 20 for the men at Gans Creek...
I love that they get opportunities, but it's hard (impossible) to cheer for them when they're as old as some of them are and decidedly not American- even last year, I found myself having a hard time sorting out the imports from the African Americans which made some of my cheering bordering on racism lol. I'm all in for BYU's squads this year since its all home grown talents.
Speaking of BYU, their women crushed a mid level field today. If they hadn't won that would have been a major problem- so some have rightly pointed out that the win (even at that big of a margin) doesn't mean a ton, but we aren't putting enough emphasis on the fact that Hedengren wasn't racing, and although it's unlikely, she does have talent to be all American or better (she beat several top 10 xc runners on the track after all), so she could be a massive point swing for them if the squad today raced a squad with Jane on it.
Here is my initial (and probably overly simple) reaction to BYU result of 9/26. Their 1-3 spread was 37 seconds (not zero has in opener!). Throw in Jane H and Jenna H as 1-2 and assume Jane would be around 20 seconds faster than Chamberlain gets a 1-5 spread approaching 1 minute. Assuming Jane would be near the leaders puts their 5th based on last year's results in the mid 60s - like last year. Jane would score maybe 10 less than LHL did last year, so their point total would be around 135-140 (147 last year). Factor in what could be even tougher competition this year would only drive the point total up (more runners between BYU 1 and 5). My guess has been it might take 115-125 to win this year.
On the Gans Creek course, still tough to figure out how good is low to mid 19s. But looking at just UVA, their runner to runner spreads were remarkable similar to what they were in their opener with the exception of Tatum David who was much faster yesterday. Will have to wait until ACC Champs to see how competitive they are but their opener times were not in most cases much faster than last year on the same course. But a number of teams who ran at Gans Creek yesterday will run at Nuttycombe where I think we know more about what times mean. My guess at this point is to add about 20-30 seconds to Gans Creek time to get Nuttycombe time so low 19s implies mid to high 19s. But we shall see.
Great analysis. My sense is that with the increased competition that there may be a lot unpredicted results. Can anyone at BYU or any other team for that matter beat the top 2 individuals at Gans Creek yesterday? Can any team realistically beat Florida based on yesterday's display and the likely selection/production of an even better #5? We have a tendency to focus on the known names, but these performances were very impressive.
Looking at the OSU results - gives another reason for american scholarships to go to americans. Or at least limit the amount that can go to foreigners. Say 2. There are quite a few schools that look like they don't even bother recruiting in the USA but go after 25-26 year old freshman from across the pond.
Looking at the OSU results - gives another reason for american scholarships to go to americans. Or at least limit the amount that can go to foreigners. Say 2. There are quite a few schools that look like they don't even bother recruiting in the USA but go after 25-26 year old freshman from across the pond.
Or charge the schools one million dollars for each student visa application.
It does seem a bit interesting that the top 4 athletes pr's through the Spring were all nothing special and here they are running sub 19:20 for 6K. Kirwa did run 33:14 at 7,000 feet but still.....All massively improve or is the course just that fast and the "proven" runners are just not showing it yet?
Apparently, 24 runners ran faster than the 2021 course record. It doesn't seem to be an fast course and one athlete I spoke to said it was deceptively tiring and rolling, not allowing a clear rhythm. I think you are looking at an influx or peaking of some very fast athletes that have not been discussed as much in the national conversation. Again, Florida is going to be very hard to beat.
It does seem a bit interesting that the top 4 athletes pr's through the Spring were all nothing special…
Can you be more specific who you are referring to? For example, using an altitude converter on the only result for Ogwaka I could find gives a 4:05 1500m and a 15:22 equivalent. But what if she is more suited to distance versus mid-distance?
Apparently, 24 runners ran faster than the 2021 course record. It doesn't seem to be an fast course and one athlete I spoke to said it was deceptively tiring and rolling, not allowing a clear rhythm. I think you are looking at an influx or peaking of some very fast athletes that have not been discussed as much in the national conversation. Again, Florida is going to be very hard to beat.
I noted this data a year ago comparing Gans Creek to the Wisconsin course. Comparing the times of the top 15 runners from (early season) 2024 Gans Creek Classic to their times at Madison Zimmer, 10 ran Pre Nats 3 weeks after Gans Creek and averaged 14 seconds slower at Pre Nats (recall Zimmer was very fast that day as Kosgei broke 19). All of the top 15 from Gans Creek made it to Nationals and averaged 26 seconds slower there.
This post was edited 4 minutes after it was posted.
It does seem a bit interesting that the top 4 athletes pr's through the Spring were all nothing special…
Can you be more specific who you are referring to? For example, using an altitude converter on the only result for Ogwaka I could find gives a 4:05 1500m and a 15:22 equivalent. But what if she is more suited to distance versus mid-distance?
I was referring to the top 4 W in the race. Longisa was running around 2:05 and 4:15 this past Spring.
The only data I saw for Ogwoka was 4:15.90 for 1500 this year, and a very old 9:43.26 3000m.
Apparently, 24 runners ran faster than the 2021 course record. It doesn't seem to be a fast course and one athlete I spoke to said it was deceptively tiring and rolling, not allowing a clear rhythm. I think you are looking at an influx or peaking of some very fast athletes that have not been discussed as much in the national conversation. Again, Florida is going to be very hard to beat.
It does seem a bit interesting that the top 4 athletes pr's through the Spring were all nothing special…
Can you be more specific who you are referring to? For example, using an altitude converter on the only result for Ogwaka I could find gives a 4:05 1500m and a 15:22 equivalent. But what if she is more suited to distance versus mid-distance?
Like Valby, for example, where a calculator “equivalent” on her collegiate 1500m time gives an under-prediction of her 5000m and 10000m times.
Possibly that is the case for Longisa, which in conjunction with her unknown age, would make her even more ‘mysterious’, since Washington State only chose to race her in shorter mid-distance races last spring; but what if, in actually, she’s a long-distance aerobic monster, relatively speaking?
Apparently, 24 runners ran faster than the 2021 course record. It doesn't seem to be a fast course and one athlete I spoke to said it was deceptively tiring and rolling, not allowing a clear rhythm. I think you are looking at an influx or peaking of some very fast athletes that have not been discussed as much in the national conversation. Again, Florida is going to be very hard to beat.
Florida’s 5th would be about 200th at ncaa.
They have another runner who did not compete yesterday for whatever reason - I think their description of the her "1600" time is wrong
Isobelle Jones - Prior to Florida: From Wolverhampton, England. Bronze medalist in the 1500m for Britain at the European U20 Championships. In the 1500m, she...
Apparently, 24 runners ran faster than the 2021 course record. It doesn't seem to be a fast course and one athlete I spoke to said it was deceptively tiring and rolling, not allowing a clear rhythm. I think you are looking at an influx or peaking of some very fast athletes that have not been discussed as much in the national conversation. Again, Florida is going to be very hard to beat.
Florida’s 5th would be about 200th at ncaa.
You obviously don’t know who their potential 5th at Natty’s will be. Try looking up Isobelle Jones.
We cross-posted. Jones has a Power of 10 profile. She was a 1500m bronze medalist at U20 European Championships in early August. She could probably use more time in getting aerobically adapted to the longer 6k races on grass.
Can you be more specific who you are referring to? For example, using an altitude converter on the only result for Ogwaka I could find gives a 4:05 1500m and a 15:22 equivalent. But what if she is more suited to distance versus mid-distance?
I was referring to the top 4 W in the race. Longisa was running around 2:05 and 4:15 this past Spring.
The only data I saw for Ogwoka was 4:15.90 for 1500 this year, and a very old 9:43.26 3000m.
Sorry again, Ogeaka’s 1500m was at 5800ft altitude. That 9:43 3000m time, also at altitude, would have been when she was apparently 13yrs-old, about to turn 14.
They also have several other elite freshman who are very talented. They will sort #5 out and when that happens it is hard to envision anyone beating this team.
