Forget the micro dosing and whatever else she’s on. She needs to pull out the IV bag for this one. WADA pay attention. And while your at it keep a closer eye on Obiri
She's not micro dosing,she's full on dosing. Micro dosing is a bit of a myth. The chemicals havent changed,nor has their dosages.The only thing thats changed is fancy shoes,and wave lights.
Thank you Jeff for all the affirmation you provided me all these months! Sincerely you have done a great deal of work in exposing the Kipchoges and Shockers etc!!
-New shoe tech (Nike probably has their own Puma up their sleeve) -New fueling tech (bicarb, etc) -Maybe new track tech (do they have something like Feldspar in mind?) -Likely rotating cast of male pacers -Wavelight tech
This is going to be way closer than a lot of male letsrunners will be comfortable admitting to themselves. I'll put the odds on 4:01.x at 80% with a slight fade in the final 150 that keeps the dream alive.
So much hatred on here for Big Sis Faith becuz she's faster than you, prettier than you, a woman and can sit in the sun all day without the need for sunscreen. Goddess Faith just dominates the average LRCer in every way.
Nobody expected breaking2 to result in anything close to 2:00:26. It totally redefined what people thought was possible in the marathon, and just a few years later we saw a 2:00 in a real race. Part of that was the advancement in shoe tech, and I truly don’t see her getting below 4:03 unless Nike is trying some insane shoes that aren’t even close to WA legal. But idk Puma just announced shoes that are supposedly way better, maybe Nike has been doing working on something.
With even pacing the whole way, and male pacers, a 4:04-4:05 is certainly possible. With an improvement in shoe tech and Faith in the best shape of her life, a 4:03 might even be possible if conditions are perfect and she has an A day. A 4:02 just doesn’t sound possible to me, so I guess that’s what they’d have to hit to really succeed in my mind (insofar as redefining what’s possible).
Here is one thing though we need to keep in mind with the "improved shoe tech" element to this.
We can't look at the Breaking 2 program and the product that came out of it and say "well if they do that for the track then of course it's possible" - why? Because what the 4% shoe did was in essence create a foot to ground interaction more similar to track running to begin with which was basically the goal - make running on the road like running on a track. Synthetic tracks have always had resilience and elasticity in them that roads simply don't have. What the 4% and subsequent product did was create that resiliency in the equation with the footwear instead of the surface. This would be in essence saying "let's make running on the road more like the track and then running on the track more like the road" - it doesn't work that way.
You might then say well what about elasticity and spring in both the track and the shoes? Well people have run on the track in the 4%/Nxt% already (without incredible results) and these are 40mm platforms on their own - what are we expecting here - a 60mm spike? Well that's not happening even if WA allowed it because you can't run around a curve or remain stable on something like. You also start completely reducing the force you can put into the track (the only thing that makes you run fast) and you increase the weight of the shoe. The current max 20mm of "superfoams" is the perfect balance for most track running anyway. Anymore you can't even compress it in time (because the impulse time with the track is so short anyway), so it's needless. Plus over a mile you just aren't impacting the surface enough to get the benefits seen over 5/10km through the cushioning and how that reduces impact fatigue/micro-vibration fatigue in the lower leg muscles.
What Nike is 100% banking on is putting her in a new product, and then praying like hell that this drafting study that was done has real-life application and relevancy to it and gets her close to something which will elevate the brand in terms of performance running and innovation like Breaking 2 did. Pace judgement isn't any issue - she ran her current WR with that first green wavelight right next to her until the final 300m when she was running purely in her anaerobic capacity - she won't get the speed and structure of the pacing any better. Rodger Kram believes "perfect" aerodynamics will get to under 4 - 3% faster than the current record. Over a mile, considering her body size, the speed she's running and the climate conditions she already ran the WR in (perfect) I find that hard to believe. If she ran even under 4.05 it would be absolutely awesome - but that is light years away from 4. It's definitely going to be an unmissable attempt either way so good for her and Nike for putting it out there.
This post was edited 2 minutes after it was posted.
I wonder if they will consider running this on a straight mile stretch rather than the track... Might not be much of a difference but worth looking into. I really can't see sub 4 happening unless Nike really tests out some strange tactics
I wonder if they will consider running this on a straight mile stretch rather than the track... Might not be much of a difference but worth looking into. I really can't see sub 4 happening unless Nike really tests out some strange tactics
Downhill?
I'm guessing not, as breaking2 was flat, but begs the question - if you are going to break the rules of record eligibility, why not just make it downhill?
If on a track, wouldn't be surprised if they have her run a measured mile in lane 7, allowing for rabbits on the inside of her as well.
Maybe it is intuitively incorrect, but many of the changes for the Sub2 record seem far more beneficial for a marathon distance than a mile. Most marathon records are set with the runner breaking away from the pack pretty soon into the marathon, running solo the majority of the race. Adding in pacers for the entire race is a huge wind break benefit + mental benefit. Completely flat course also helped a ton. No sharp turns. Perfectly timed nutrition/water/electrolytes. Ability to modify the day they actually have the race. If Kipchoge woke up feeling a little off, or was nervous the night before and slept an hour too little, they could just move it to the next day. There's a reason that many many marathons will have elite guys DNF or run far slower than their normal, the little things are super important.
What are they gonna do for the mile aside from new shoe technology? They already had pacers for the first 1000m, is she going to be able to run 7 seconds faster with pacers on the last lap?
This post was edited 2 minutes after it was posted.
Here is one thing though we need to keep in mind with the "improved shoe tech" element to this.
We can't look at the Breaking 2 program and the product that came out of it and say "well if they do that for the track then of course it's possible" - why? Because what the 4% shoe did was in essence create a foot to ground interaction more similar to track running to begin with which was basically the goal - make running on the road like running on a track. Synthetic tracks have always had resilience and elasticity in them that roads simply don't have. What the 4% and subsequent product did was create that resiliency in the equation with the footwear instead of the surface. This would be in essence saying "let's make running on the road more like the track and then running on the track more like the road" - it doesn't work that way.
You might then say well what about elasticity and spring in both the track and the shoes? Well people have run on the track in the 4%/Nxt% already (without incredible results) and these are 40mm platforms on their own - what are we expecting here - a 60mm spike? Well that's not happening even if WA allowed it because you can't run around a curve or remain stable on something like. You also start completely reducing the force you can put into the track (the only thing that makes you run fast) and you increase the weight of the shoe. The current max 20mm of "superfoams" is the perfect balance for most track running anyway. Anymore you can't even compress it in time (because the impulse time with the track is so short anyway), so it's needless. Plus over a mile you just aren't impacting the surface enough to get the benefits seen over 5/10km through the cushioning and how that reduces impact fatigue/micro-vibration fatigue in the lower leg muscles.
What Nike is 100% banking on is putting her in a new product, and then praying like hell that this drafting study that was done has real-life application and relevancy to it and gets her close to something which will elevate the brand in terms of performance running and innovation like Breaking 2 did. Pace judgement isn't any issue - she ran her current WR with that first green wavelight right next to her until the final 300m when she was running purely in her anaerobic capacity - she won't get the speed and structure of the pacing any better. Rodger Kram believes "perfect" aerodynamics will get to under 4 - 3% faster than the current record. Over a mile, considering her body size, the speed she's running and the climate conditions she already ran the WR in (perfect) I find that hard to believe. If she ran even under 4.05 it would be absolutely awesome - but that is light years away from 4. It's definitely going to be an unmissable attempt either way so good for her and Nike for putting it out there.
Yes people are missing the point here. So many people are dismissing it out of hand that if she runs under 4:06.00 this can easily be spun by Nike. After all it’s barely more than a second per lap, and she can say in my lifetime a woman will do it etc. Nike will get good press. Really the only negative is if she goes backwards and runs 4:08 but that seems unlikely given the fact her 1500 is stronger and the amount of (illegal)pacing she will be getting here.
what the 4% shoe did was in essence create a foot to ground interaction more similar to track running to begin with which was basically the goal - make running on the road like running on a track.
This is not remotely what supershoes do.
Have you ever run in a supershoe? Do you run at all?
She's not micro dosing,she's full on dosing. Micro dosing is a bit of a myth. The chemicals havent changed,nor has their dosages.The only thing thats changed is fancy shoes,and wave lights.
She is not going all out on PEDs (but not just microdosing either) - nobody can do that anymore. That would require bribing the NADO and bribing the AIU and bribing all the race organizers and or NADOs where one is training and competing.
That's why for example the above-mentioned 1:53 (or the 3:26.00) still has not been broken, despite super spikes and super tracks and wavelights.
That's also a possible solution for the sub-4 of course. Have her retire now, and go "legally" all out on roids and EPO and HGH and speed peptides for four months, and then top it up with a 1 L blood transfusion 2 days before the "race".
What we see with the success of the African women is millennia of DNA forged in the beautiful and rugged landscape of Africa. No surprise that the best runners come from the purest and most bountiful untouched land.
I hope you’re being facetious. Bountiful land of dopers.
I’m a huge fan of Faith’s but there is absolutely no way this works. Perfect pacing and drafting don’t let you drop over 7 seconds from your world record PR. I’m predicting 4:03.9.
So much hatred on here for Big Sis Faith becuz she's faster than you, prettier than you, a woman and can sit in the sun all day without the need for sunscreen. Goddess Faith just dominates the average LRCer in every way.
😆 you are correct about all that!
but the problem is Kipyegons current WR at 4:07 is already five seconds faster than the #2 alltime (Hassan). A major improvement ln her own WR would establish her as performance-wise the most dominant athlete in history in a running event. e.g. a 4:04 would position her 8 seconds or 3.4 percent clear of all other athletes in history.
For Jakob to gap his competitors comparably in mens mile hed have to run a 3:37.
For M400 that would be a 41.6
For W LJ that would need 7.80
For the FloJo 100 that would need a 10.13
Even Mondo who is regarded as historically dominant would need to clear 6.47 to gap Lavillenie/Bubka similarly.
Why is everyone so sure that the event will have male pacers? Even if somehow Kipyegon breaks 4, not sure it gets all that great press for to have her surrounded by men running within themselves. I could almost see a backlash: "a woman finally breaks 4 and you can't even see her behind all the dudes". And from the other side: "a woman can't break 4 on her own, she needs 7 guys to do it".
Better would be a rotating cast of all female pacemakers, or at least some female rabbits who drop out and are replaced by men. That gets harder logistically, but they certainly will be trying to make it work.
I’m a huge fan of Faith’s but there is absolutely no way this works. Perfect pacing and drafting don’t let you drop over 7 seconds from your world record PR. I’m predicting 4:03.9.
It’s all in the marketing and that round number of 4:00.
She will likely run 4:05-4:10 on the day….but this will pull more mainstream eyeballs than Grand Slam Track and Diamond League combined!
And when she falls far short our sport will look further like a WWE desperate for attention. I’m bummed by this whole thing because if she does break it (or comes close) then it’s supremely obvious she is doping, and if she doesn’t it’s obvious this was a lame cry for attention. No winning here.