way too early 2025 XC CIF HS predictions

As for Ventura boys, they return these 1600 times from this spring:

4:26

4:34

4:41

4:55

Sloan hasn’t raced this spring yet but he will be their #2 XC runner this fall. They will need a 5th man though

I don’t think anyone has mentioned this team, but I’d look out for them- they have serious potential and return literally everyone- their top three runners have vastly improved by at least 20 seconds to 1 minute and could in contention for podium finish in D4 (I doubt they’ll beat Jserra’s girls though but there is potential for a podium finish). A program that has had a history of state title from the boys side, Archie Williams from San Anselmo. Looking at their results from Dublin this year they seem to have serious potential.

Ani Stieg: (Junior; 4:56 1600, 2:13 800, 17:59 Woodward Park 5k- one of the top returners in D4)
Brooke Lee (Junior; 5:03 1600, 18:56 5k)
Alyssa Silverstein (Junior; 5:11 1600, 10:53 3200- an almost 1 minute improvement from last season, 18:55 5k)
Ainsley Sullivan (Sophomore; 20:06 5k)
Teya Strong (Sophomore; 21:07 5k- seems to be hurdler who converted to distance running)
Hanna Cortwright (Junior; 21:07 5k)
Sloane Korty (Sophomore; 21:54 5k)

If these girls keep training, stay consistent, and healthy- they could something special next season. Not an NxN contender, but could be in contention for a podium finish, a lot of serious potential.

I don’t think the girls team has ever had a state title or a podium, but could be the first in history with a vast array of titles from the guys.

One team to watch out for is Agoura.

They are in Marmonte League (the one Newbury Park used to dominate and Oaks won last year), and Agoura could win the league this time.

They return everyone from the XC state meet except for their #1 guy

3200 returning times

9:17

9:36

9:42

9:49

9:52

9:58

athletic.net

Track & Field and Cross Country Statistics

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Link:www.athletic.net/team/1534/track-and-f...

Mira Costa returns

4:16, 4;16, 4:21, 4:23, 4:25

Also 2 more guys who ran a 16:09 and 16:16 at the state meet

And the Archie Williams girls won the Bay Area Relays 4x800- I’m calling it, they’re going to be goated once XC season comes around

Updated my XC projections program with slight alterations based on reviewing last year's projections (what track times convert to speed ratings, since the hypo meet is scored by "best speed rating"). It's way too early to look at teams sequentially, as most are fairly close and lots will change. I use this for 2 reasons (1) There are too many teams to keep this in my head, so this is a quick reference (2) This is a relative strength measure at this point, not a ranking.

I've been doing this for 3 years now, and 5 teams are making their first appearance in the top 20. Campolinda, Agoura, Dos Pueblos, Willow Glen and St. John Bosco. To me the tiers are Jesuit clear #1, Mira Costa and Beckman, and then a huge number of teams so close I can't even make tiers for them. And sorry, I won't producing a girls list because this takes way too much time as it is. Besides, there is no magic here, anyone good with Excel and the time to gather all the data could do it. I can share my track conversion calculation if anyone wants it. It is very similar to the table on tullyrunners.com, titled "
Updated Chart of XC Speed Ratings with Approximated Times for Various Track Distances (Dec 23)" from 2021.

Jesuit 120
Mira Costa 242
Beckman 252
JSerra 306
Woodbridge 372
ML King 376
Mountain View 411
Vacaville 412
Matilda Torres 441
Hart 442
Ayala 455
Campolinda 465
San Clemente 501
Agoura 511
Dos Pueblos 529
Foothill Technology 532
Willow Glen 532
St John Bosco 539
Davis 543
Redondo Union 549
Clovis North 565
Buchanan 611
Poway 613
Crescenta Valley 615
West Ranch 632
Dublin 658
Palisades Charter 660
De La Salle 668
West Torrance 668
Sage Creek 672
Oak Park 680
Bellarmine 688
Saugus 719
Loyola 723
Millikan 725
Clovis East 769
Trabuco Hills 783
Los Altos 787

San Clemente is the team that I think will make the jump. Proven coaching and plenty of young talent all at the right time will make them dangerous. Thank you for the data though it gives a good estimate on what teams to watch. Jesuit is on another level I wonder how they stack up nationally.

Matilda Torres is another team that will do better than these rankings show. They were the top CA team that didn’t make NXN last year. Based on 5 returners from the XC state meet, they are looking to be the favorites behind Jesuit. MT returns 5 of their top 6 and has a strong 1&2, but the depth is what might be concerning. They do have some guys who didn’t run at state but put up respectable 1600 times.

Palos Verdes is another team that should be on this list. They are looking to be #2 in D4 behind JSerra. They return 5 of their top 6 and another soph who ran a 10:02

The second and third merge spot at the girls state meet will be up for grabs, with Buchanan being the favorite

Not that it matters much, but Oaks Christian will be absolutely cooked with their projected 2026 roster and might not even make it through CIF prelims next year. Also a small shot at not even making CIF prelims to begin with since their league is getting competitive next year.

Crazy to go from State Div 4 Winner to potentially completely out of contention on the first day of postseason the following year, but I guess that's what happens when you have 5 studs and then absolutely no depth at all to fill in the the next year's roster.

At least Oaks Christian won the state title. Something no one can ever take away from them.

Yosemite boys will be in the similar situation too. Except they never won a state title. But they made podium in 2022&2023 and placed somewhat high in D5 in 2024. But all of their scorers are graduating, and they have many seniors at the top of JV too. They don’t even bring back many guys from their roster either, so they’ll likely be eliminated the first time that elimination happens

And Newbury Park didn’t make state 2 years after they won NXN

Oaks is getting one of the best 8th graders in the state, Sterlign White. 4:14 1500m, 9:43 3200m. It doessn't seem like they will be able to compete with Agoura, though, and possibly not Newbury as they look decently strong now.

I'm surprised Granada isn't listed. Their top 7 returners track times so far in 2025:

#1 Runner: 9:31

#2 Runner: 4:26

#3 Runner: 9:59

#4 Runner: 4:37

#5 Runner: 4:39

#6 Runner: 4:43

#7 Runner: 4:43

Yeah, I suppose on paper that doesn't look super competitive (but comparable to the bottom of your list). Given the program's history, I would expect them to all improve quite a bit by the fall. Their 3-7 are all very close, and would expect a few of them to make big jumps.

Not sure if JSerra will be able to finish this high, as they didn’t last year and are losing their big 1&2 punch, unless they get some really good transfers at that level. They seem to be better at track. They are the favorites to win d4 though

So the rest of next year’s Oaks Christian’s top 5 right now are 4:24, 4:28, 4:53, 4:57. Then a big drop off after that

Granada is in my database, but they didn't make the cutoff line. Their current score is 819.

>>Palos Verdes is another team that should be on this list. They are looking to be #2 in D4 behind JSerra. They return 5 of their top 6 and another soph who ran a 10:02

Currently my projections assume Sigworth will be running for Palisades next XC season. Given that, PV doesn't make the cutoff.