LetsRun.com wrote: . . . Jonathan Gault interviews coaches and scientists from all over the world and unveils Project 99 - the quest for the first sub-1:40 800 in history.
Whether the leader goes out in 49.28 as Rudisha did in his WR or Arop did today in Brussels, or the leader splits 50.28 then runs even/negative splits as we've seen happen in this summer of 1:41s, cannot see anyone getting down to 1:40.00 or faster anytime in the foreseeable future.
1:40.00 is a wonderful round number to target as the next insurmountable record to be broken. However, unlike the 4-minute mile prior to the 1950s, this is a barrier that does appear to be beyond the reach of humans at this point in time -- and likely for years and years to come.
Simple math dictates that one of the 400 splits be in the 49s, possibly even a high-48. To run that fast then add on another 400 in 50-point -- resulting in either a positively or negatively split race -- the athlete must also have the raw speed necessary to run an open 400 in 45-low or even sub-45 to feel comfortable enough to tolerate the inevitable lactate build-up over the final 200.
In other words, the man who breaks 1:40 in the 800 must also, at the same time, be one of the world's better 400 sprinters.
Current 800 training methods do not allow for that level of sprint training while 400 sprint training does not allow for that level of endurance work. As a result, today's long sprinters do not have the endurance necessary for a 1:40/800 while the 800 guys do not have the speed necessary for a 45/400.
Simply stated, 1:40.00 is where the war between anaerobic vs aerobic cannot be resolved. Humans, as currently constructed and currently trained, cannot breach this barrier. It is real, not imagined.
Now, can Rudisha's 1:40.91/WR be broken? Absolutely. Likely, by a few tenths of a second, probably in increments of hundredths of a second. And, within this next Olympic cycle, since so many are now running 1:41s with the closest just recently coming within 0.20.
But 1:40.00? We are likely two or three generations away -- barring new (illegal) genetically engineered modifications, new (illegal) wonder drugs, or new (presumably legal) super tracks -- for a human being to have a futuristic biochemistry and skeletal structure necessary to run this fast.
A more realistic title for Project 99 would have been Project 100, as anyone living today breaking 1:41.00 would have achieved a performance touching upon the limit of current human capacity in this event.
Project 99 PEDs would be a more accurate name. The reason why we’ve seen such vast improvement by these guys this year is they upped the dosages and evaded testing. I didn’t quote him, but to the poster who is claiming it is impossible to dip under 1:40, I would like to point out that almost any athletic performance may be possible with continued progress with doping.
Good article, but did anyone else notice that there is absolutely ZERO introduction or context given for Berardelli? There's never even any mention of a first name.
Context clues and Google are enough to find out they're talking about Claudio Berardelli, Wanyonyi's coach, but I mean, my god. Where is the editing process??