I would be the next dice roller, die roll attempt number ** coincidentally ** divisible by 6, tin foil hat creased to the left, right foot in the air and chanting big money big money.
Would you rather have a guaranteed $100K or a 17% chance at $1 billion?
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This is a classic risk vs. reward dilemma:
Option 1: A guaranteed $100K is life-changing money for most people. You can invest, pay off debt, or make a big purchase with zero risk.
Option 2: A 17% chance at $1 billion is tempting—life-changing on an entirely different level. But the 83% chance of walking away with nothing makes it a high-risk gamble.
Personally, I’d probably take the $100K unless I was already financially secure enough to take the risk. But for those who live for the thrill of gambling, offers plenty of chances to test your luck.00 -
I would take the billion in this scenario, but it's worth noting (if it hasn't been already because I haven't read the entire thread) that expected winnings is not the same as expected utility.
For example, if the options were guaranteed billion or 1 in 6 chance of 100 billion, I would definitely take the guaranteed billion. Lower expected money, but there's very little if any increase in utility going from a billion to 100 billion. The extra would be essentially meaningless to me, as would most of the first billion really. (Well obviously I could do a lot of good for the world, but let's not overcomplicate things - I'm just talking about personal utility).
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