think yakob is 2-1 ~67% to win. wanted to throw a couple grand on polymarket, but im in the us unfortunately.
monaco 3:26.7 was almost a perfect race running the inside of lane 1 with even drafting until 1k, fast track, 0 altitude etc
josh in the bowerman mile ran a 3:28.6 equivalent in very imperfect conditions, lots of lane 2 running, little drafting, not ideal weather? Might equal 3:27 low in the same conditions as monaco
so i think in terms of effective fitness, jakob is around 0-.5 better than kerr. i think most underestimate the value of effective fitness.
unsure about jakob's race tactics. i think he'll wind it up off a 56 first lap, but we'll see.