I think if every single American is in the pool (babies, 100 year olds, etc), I would do it. I'm probably only in 4:50ish shape anymore, but the odds have to be extremely in my favor. Without thinking about it too deeply, it seems likely that I'm more likely to die in a car wreck than I am to randomly be pitted against a sub-4:50 miler. We all "live" in the running world, so we're surrounded by fast people which probably skews our perspective, but how many people can truly run sub-4:50? Very, very, very, few. Of course, were I given the chance to actually enter into this arrangement, I might come to different conclusion even if my statistical analysis remained the same.
A random american is selected, it could be anyone from your Gran to Grant Fisher. Whoever it is, you must race them in the mile on the track. If you beat them you get $1 million, if you lose however, you die.
I think if every single American is in the pool (babies, 100 year olds, etc), I would do it. I'm probably only in 4:50ish shape anymore, but the odds have to be extremely in my favor. Without thinking about it too deeply, it seems likely that I'm more likely to die in a car wreck than I am to randomly be pitted against a sub-4:50 miler. We all "live" in the running world, so we're surrounded by fast people which probably skews our perspective, but how many people can truly run sub-4:50? Very, very, very, few. Of course, were I given the chance to actually enter into this arrangement, I might come to different conclusion even if my statistical analysis remained the same.
Fun game!
Everyone knows this is an EV+ bet if you can run like a 9 min mile. The problem is the cost of losing is way higher than the benefits of living… And you can get to the long run when you can only play once..
Can I beat a random yank? Even with a hip replacement, probably.
Is that enough to bet my life? Of course not.
Once I was inside a ship on Chinese scaffolding. My return route out was an hour of high exertion, high temperature pain. Someone had balanced a plank across a ten foot gap that would have got me out in 20 seconds. I learnt a lot in the five minutes I stared at that plank.
Risk is likelihood * consequence. If either are excessive, don't.
You are afraid to die. It’s simple.
when you die, you’re gone. You don’t miss anything or feel sadness. The body just stops working. It’s easy.
Very true, but also very selfish. I think of my loved ones, and what they will feel after.
Imagine you are Hobbs Kessler. But imagine you also have the worst luck and randomly get matched up with Nuguse. Because fate. ‮tihS
Also, not brought up yet, but imagine the day of the challenge comes and suddenly you aregot hit by a car or otherwise get injured or sick. I was diagnosed with gout last week. Three days ago, I was in so much pain that it took over 2 hours to limp 0.4 miles to walk my dog. A 300-lb woman could have beaten me over a mile.
A random american is selected, it could be anyone from your Gran to Grant Fisher. Whoever it is, you must race them in the mile on the track. If you beat them you get $1 million, if you lose however, you die.
Do you take the challenge?
I wouldn’t be able to. The American would shoot me after the race starts
This is a great topic but to me there is no question I would do it. I am a master's runner but can still go sub 5. At this point in my life (old guy) I have perspective on just how pointy this end of the spear is. Bear in mind that even among normal, dedicated runners, sub-8 miles are considered fast. I would do this challenge for sure, as there is almost no chance I get beaten.
If the number of US sub 5's is 25,000 and the population is 341M, the chance of a sub 5 miler showing up is 7 in 100,000. Bear in mind that I can probably still beat a lot of these sub-5 folks even if they do get chosen (because they have only broken 5 once ever on their best day, because I'm tactically better, they're injured, out of shape, etc.).
A million bucks isn't life-changing but it's easy money. The most probable outcome is that I get a million bucks to jog a mile.
Think of it this way:
0.99 probability I jog a mile for $1,000,000
0.00993 probability I run a mile and easily win $1,000,000
Notably, you say only that 'your' life is on the line, not theirs. If that's the case, it will be easy to convince most of them not to try, whether through bribes or pity.
A random american is selected, it could be anyone from your Gran to Grant Fisher. Whoever it is, you must race them in the mile on the track. If you beat them you get $1 million, if you lose however, you die.
Do you take the challenge?
Is physical contact (i.e. tripping, kicking, punching, etc.) allowed?
If the random American selected to race me is a wheelchair athlete, will the camera be on them the whole race? Will nbc be showing the post race interview with them while I am crossing my very last finish line of this lifetime?
Imagine you are Hobbs Kessler. But imagine you also have the worst luck and randomly get matched up with Nuguse. Because fate. tihS
Also, not brought up yet, but imagine the day of the challenge comes and suddenly you aregot hit by a car or otherwise get injured or sick. I was diagnosed with gout last week. Three days ago, I was in so much pain that it took over 2 hours to limp 0.4 miles to walk my dog. A 300-lb woman could have beaten me over a mile.
First off, I'd say this is just a fun/stupid LRC hypothetical, so no harm of course. But I will say there's A LOT of people saying they'd do this that when it came down to it, would chicken out (also known as make the smart decision).
Meaning, you're standing on the track ready to run the mile. There's a table with $1M in cash sitting there, also a loaded 9mm with an executioner ready to fire if need be. Your friends and family are there ready to watch you either collect the money, or take a one tap to the back of the head with your frontal lobe scattered across the track.
You have one last chance to back out, not risk something stupid like a cramp or freak injury before your opponent is revealed and the race starts. Your mom is staring at you thinking this whole thing is ridiculous and can't believe she might see her child's life ended over something so stupid and trivial.
The RD asks one more time, do you want to do this?
All but one of you, who probably actually does need professional mental help, backs out because you're not an idiot.
For all those who don't understand how to answer the spirit of a question, here is a question for you to ponder, with enough specifics added that you'll need to try really hard if you want to make your answer stupid:
A magical extra-terrestrial wizard appears to you. He tells you that for the next thirty Earth-days, you have the opportunity to take his challenge.
The challenge is that you and another human, chosen completely at random from all American citizens excluding yourself, will be safely and instantly transported to a 400m track. Approximately 60 minutes later, the two of you will race one Mile in accordance with USATF rules. It will be 50°F, cloudy, and dry. The track will be well-lit. You and your competitor will have access to whatever (USATF-approved) shoes, clothes, nutrition, and amenities you like. Your competitor has been told that they will be killed if they lose; the wizard has assured you, however, that they will not actually be killed--so you do not need to feel guilt about being the cause of someone's death. You are not allowed to make any deals with your competitor that might cause them to give less than their best effort. The wizard will also perform a 100%-accurate drug test; a positive test for an intentionally-consumed performance-enhancing drug is grounds for disqualification. Other intentional rule-breaking is also grounds for disqualification; unintentional rule-breaking (such as an accidental flinch for a false start, or an accidental mid-race collision) will cause the race to be restarted. A disqualification is equivalent to a loss.
If you lose the race, you will immediately be killed (shot in the head until dead), and those who knew you will learn that it was because you accepted a one-mile race against a random American, with a $1 million prize for winning and death for losing. They will not know about the magical extra-terrestrial wizard, but they will assume that the competition was fair.
If you win the race, you are awarded one million US Dollars, and you are safely transported back to your original location, at the time at which you accepted the challenge. No one but you will know that you were gone or that a race occurred.
You may accept the challenge as many times as you wish at any point within the 30-day window (unless you're dead). At the end of said window, the money will be awarded to you by means of a winning lottery ticket whose prize, after taxes are deducted, will be equal to your winnings. No one will know that you earned the money by winning (a) race(s).
One of the magical extra-terrestrial wizard's magical powers is the ability to convince anyone of anything. Because of this, you have zero doubt that everything he has told you is true.
Do you accept his challenge? If you win, do you accept it again? How many times?
Awesome, thanks for spelling this out.
“If you lose the race, you will immediately be killed (shot in the head until dead), and those who knew you will learn that it was because you accepted a one-mile race against a random American, with a $1 million prize for winning and death for losing.”
^Just makes me more resolute in my decision to race. Immediately shot in the head is probably the best case scenario if you have to lose the bet, and honestly I’d be sort of proud to think my friends and acquaintances would know this was my cause of death. Awesome way to go if you ask me. I’d probably take the bet 3-4 times and then call it a win (assuming I survive, which I very-probably would), and yes, that money would change my life.
Imagine you are Hobbs Kessler. But imagine you also have the worst luck and randomly get matched up with Nuguse. Because fate. tihS
Also, not brought up yet, but imagine the day of the challenge comes and suddenly you aregot hit by a car or otherwise get injured or sick. I was diagnosed with gout last week. Three days ago, I was in so much pain that it took over 2 hours to limp 0.4 miles to walk my dog. A 300-lb woman could have beaten me over a mile.
Take NSAIDS like Aleve. The gout will go away.
Not right away. I was prescribed Colchicine. It is wonderful—attacks the gout itself (and lowers uric acid in blood) rather than just relieving pain. But it didn't kick in until 5 days in (now 7 days in not all good yet, but well on it's way). 3 days after first starting it, my entire foot swelled up like a sausage. At that point, no amount of NSAIDS that I was willing to take would have helped me beat the least fit person that can walk.
Anyway, my point was that people aren't considering that this fantasy situation can have got-yous like picking a time and "random" person that greatly increases your chance to lose. Let's say the ref of this gamble decides that it will choose the random person people you encounter in real life. After all, if you were to race someone, you will have to be in the same place and same time. The ref might determine, without your pre-knowledge, that 100th person that you talk to after right now will be your "random American" and you are going to race that person right then and there. If you are a runner that has a lot of runner friends, or you coach, or go to track meets, all of a sudden that "random American" might be someone really fast. If you were Cooper Teare, that 100th person might be Hocker. If you are an injured runner, you might be screwed.
Not right away. I was prescribed Colchicine. It is wonderful—attacks the gout itself (and lowers uric acid in blood) rather than just relieving pain. But it didn't kick in until 5 days in (now 7 days in not all good yet, but well on it's way). 3 days after first starting it, my entire foot swelled up like a sausage. At that point, no amount of NSAIDS that I was willing to take would have helped me beat the least fit person that can walk.
Anyway, my point was that people aren't considering that this fantasy situation can have got-yous like picking a time and "random" person that greatly increases your chance to lose. Let's say the ref of this gamble decides that it will choose the random person people you encounter in real life. After all, if you were to race someone, you will have to be in the same place and same time. The ref might determine, without your pre-knowledge, that 100th person that you talk to after right now will be your "random American" and you are going to race that person right then and there. If you are a runner that has a lot of runner friends, or you coach, or go to track meets, all of a sudden that "random American" might be someone really fast. If you were Cooper Teare, that 100th person might be Hocker. If you are an injured runner, you might be screwed.
I've never had a whole foot swell up. Just a big toe. But I wouldn't wish that pain on anyone. It's horrible.