xczvzxcv wrote:
I predicted 1:51 and he ran 1:50.98. So, he is right where I thought he'd be. This result doesn't worry me one bit. Why would you think that he would come out of nowhere with a good 800m? It is April 10 and he has months to sharpen before the Trials, the 1st heat of which is currently scheduled for June 24th at 6:04 p.m. Experienced 1500m runners usually do not knock their 800m times down until mid- to late-summer. If his training has been consistent with BTC, then he'll be in very solid aerobic shape right now and have little speed. In 2016, when he was already strong for World Indoor, he still never ran a fast 800m, going instead for multiple 800s in races/workouts the same day at about the pace of the last 800m of a tactical 1500m world or Olympic championship (1:48-49). Even if he were only getting healthy today and starting to train, I'd pick him for the team. He's proven in the past that he doesn't need much time to get in shape. In this case, he's got his rust-buster; he knows where he is at; he already ran 3:40 March 6, so whether he built on that and has a bit more speed now or had an injury setback and just came back, I am not worried at all about where he is now. I am sure that he isn't either. Better to peak in late June/August than April.
If anything, he's ahead of schedule with this 3:35.2 easing up at the end on May 15.