They give Harris 59% chance to win. Sounds pretty good unless you know they gave Clinton a 71.4% chance to win in 2016 and Biden an 89% chance in 2020.
The Laughing Hyena would lose the 2024 election if held today.
Per Gold Crown Politics on X:
Job Approval predicts vote share with great accuracy and has been much better than any polling average.
No Democrat has ever won an election receiving less than 46% nationally (so long as third parties receive less than 5%). with RFK Jr dropping out, there is no chance for a greater than 5% vote.
One of the illegal migrants charged with killing little Jocelyn Nungaray wants the story be kept out of the media spotlight — as his lawyer argues that the ...
A head-to-head matchup between Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris continues to be fairly even with less than three months until the 2024 presidential election.
IF Harris is now at the height of her popularity, as you claim, Trump stands a chance of winning if he shows up at the debate and doesn't make a fool of himself (that's unlikely).
IF Harris maintains some momentum, even if it wanes a bit, she will pull away from Trump and this election won't be close.
cherry pick the data that supports your opinion. if the data doesn’t support your opinion either ignore it or claim that it’s wrong. This is the way of the Trumper.
After President Joe Biden confirmed he was pushed out by party elites like Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), Vice President Kamala Harriswas coronated as the nominee...
2016 and 2020 polls vastly understated Trump's real support
Not vastly, but yes, the polls underestimated Trump's support.
The pollsters say they are trying to adjust. Polls in 2022 were more accurate.
Unless someone's lead grows to maybe 5 points or more, you can't take the polls too seriously. I think all you can say now is that the race is very tight and could go either way.
Given where Trump and Harris stood a month ago, it's clear that Harris has moved up and Trump has slumped. If this keeps up, Harris will win.
2016 and 2020 polls vastly understated Trump's real support
Not vastly, but yes, the polls underestimated Trump's support.
The pollsters say they are trying to adjust. Polls in 2022 were more accurate.
Unless someone's lead grows to maybe 5 points or more, you can't take the polls too seriously. I think all you can say now is that the race is very tight and could go either way.
Given where Trump and Harris stood a month ago, it's clear that Harris has moved up and Trump has slumped. If this keeps up, Harris will win.
"I've been to the DC only once in my life and that was today to Storm the Capital, break stuff, fight with the police and be shot with tear gas. I spent the day doing Patriot sh't and standing up for my President..." The latest Jan. 6 arrestee: Hal Ray Huddleston of Utah.
cherry pick the data that supports your opinion. if the data doesn’t support your opinion either ignore it or claim that it’s wrong. This is the way of the Trumper.
Don’t care about Americans. Care about the South Americans. Give illegal immigrants $150,000 to buy a house and leave the Americans at the curb.
Not vastly, but yes, the polls underestimated Trump's support.
The pollsters say they are trying to adjust. Polls in 2022 were more accurate.
Unless someone's lead grows to maybe 5 points or more, you can't take the polls too seriously. I think all you can say now is that the race is very tight and could go either way.
Given where Trump and Harris stood a month ago, it's clear that Harris has moved up and Trump has slumped. If this keeps up, Harris will win.
Vastly
Vastly is subjective.
Taking PA as an example, the polls as of Election Day in 2020 had Biden up by 4.7. Biden won PA by a little over a point (1.17). So the polls were off by about 3.5 points.
In Michigan, the polls had Biden ahead in 2020 by 7.9; he won the state by about 2.8 points. So the polls were off there by about 5.1 points.
Call it 'vastly' if you want.
As I said, the pollsters have recognized that they were off. They are trying to adjust for the underestimation of Trump support. Supposedly, the polls in 2022 were more accurate. So while I think it's a mistake to put too much stock in polls, I also think it's a mistake to assume that Trump's support is going to far exceed what the polls are predicting. It's the kind of question that will only be answered after Election Day.
Let’s give a big round of applause to the pollsters. Measuring public opinion is, in many ways, harder than ever — and yet, the polling industry just had one of…
Taking PA as an example, the polls as of Election Day in 2020 had Biden up by 4.7. Biden won PA by a little over a point (1.17). So the polls were off by about 3.5 points.
In Michigan, the polls had Biden ahead in 2020 by 7.9; he won the state by about 2.8 points. So the polls were off there by about 5.1 points.
Call it 'vastly' if you want.
As I said, the pollsters have recognized that they were off. They are trying to adjust for the underestimation of Trump support. Supposedly, the polls in 2022 were more accurate. So while I think it's a mistake to put too much stock in polls, I also think it's a mistake to assume that Trump's support is going to far exceed what the polls are predicting. It's the kind of question that will only be answered after Election Day.
A transcript of the alleged conversation between Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland and the US ambassador to Ukraine, Geoffrey Pyatt discussing the crisis in Ukraine.
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