Agreed. Given the frequency with which he looks at the watch whilst running in the videos he posted to his own Facebook page, no way would he notice if it either wasn't on his wrist or wasn't started! My Garmin gives me an audible alert several times before switching to standby mode if I've paused it and forgotten to restart - can any TomTom owners advise whether Rob's models of watch have a similar feature?
My TomTom does not.
SheriffJohnStone wrote:
I took a look at RY's KOMs on Strava and noticed this run. Sorry if you've covered this before...
https://www.strava.com/activities/617268918/overview(Firstly, its a bit odd that he has the course record for a segment during this run, but is one of only two people to ever run the segment, the other one being the other Rob Young account. Weird but not suspicious.)
This run is a classic example of erratic walk/run pace and zig-zag across the road, quickly switching to much faster pace and a smooth GPS line. Those speed point changes are matched by the GPS track showing a little swirl, that others have suggested is RY entering or leaving the van. This is up a pretty steep elevation too.
2.4km - he gets into the van
9.3km - he gets into the van again
Oh and guess what, this is from the evening of 18th May, the day they got stuck in the sand...
I think that one's legit. He's established he can run 6-7 minute pace for a mile or so, but almost always takes breaks afterwards. On Strava, the signature is a 6-8 minute per mile "plateau" for a mile and then a few minutes of walking (15-minute pace).
The breaks during the "one lane" segment could be them pulling over to let cars pass, right? The left lane is the one that is now closed, so perhaps there were pulllouts or at least wide shoulders at those break locations. Something that might not have been available when they decided to speed up and get through the section before backtracking a bit.
It looks like the panel will be in contact with Rob, which means they can ask him questions (and expect a reply). Among other things, I think we should make a list of tough questions for Rob that we (eventually) forward onto the panel. I think we should keep it short, with maybe 5 - 10 really strong questions that don't have easy evasions.
Before you start posting candidates, consider this: it might benefit us to keep the questions hidden so that it is not easy to prepare answers. There are definitely questions that don't have any easy answers, but there may be some that catch him off guard.
I'm also thinking it might be more practical to form a small working group (via email or something) of the few individuals who are still actually participating. Thoughts?
I like mine long wrote:
I see three plausible scenarios for SKINS employee Michael Spheinchter:
1. He was in on the con from the very beginning, and was promised a payout from RY. It would be easy to keep this from his managers.
2. He's young and impressionable. During the early days of the run there was some sharing of sausage, and RY and Dustbin then blackmailed him: participate in our scam or we'll show the world these pictures of your bratwurst. The Brits would have obviously planned this in advance. It may even be their standard procedure for these long events.
3. The con goes all the way to the top of SKINS, and Michael was simply the fall guy for if something went wrong. In which case he'd probably be given a year's severance pay or some such to keep quiet about it.
Occam's Razor suggests that number 1 is the most likely. But these chaps have long proven that they're not afraid of bizarre scenarios.
4) RV rides were done while Mike slept. Witness records could help clarify this.
Hiro wrote:
I'm also thinking it might be more practical to form a small working group (via email or something) of the few individuals who are still actually participating. Thoughts?
We did this when the Mike Rossi story/thread exploded and while it didn't succeed in getting him DQ'd, it was much more productive than the thread here at LR. We used Facebook and formed a private group. I would recommend it, maybe combined with another google document that isn't publicized outside of the private FB group.
triathleteguru wrote:
Hiro wrote:I'm also thinking it might be more practical to form a small working group (via email or something) of the few individuals who are still actually participating. Thoughts?
We did this when the Mike Rossi story/thread exploded and while it didn't succeed in getting him DQ'd, it was much more productive than the thread here at LR. We used Facebook and formed a private group. I would recommend it, maybe combined with another google document that isn't publicized outside of the private FB group.
I think its a good idea and I'm not even helping. Probably should have been done a while ago, but crowd-sourcing has worked so far. The RVers are DEFINITELY gleaning information from this post!
1 2 3 green wrote:
Every morning I check this thread and never am I disappointed.
First I find a great writeup by investigator on the 1:56 mile. Clear, concise and damning.
http://ryinvestigation.blogspot.com/2016/06/rob-young-uploads-driving-gps-file.htmlThen we get the backups of Rob's strava runs that were deleted from Joanna's account all processed and uploaded. I did my data crunching early on, but have since run out of time. Thanks to those who continue to take the time to do this.
https://www.strava.com/athletes/16078476And finally we have the announcement of the Skins reviewers, which included Ross Tucker. Don't know the other guy, but I was glad to see Mr. Tucker's name. The paces and distances will jump off the page at him, just as they did to us and the UListers.
http://watercooler.skins.net/2016/07/01/investigation-into-rob-young-run/
My thoughts exactly.
Hiro, my hero! Great article on the deleted segments along I-40. One more nail in the coffin. The evidence is just overwhelming.
Then, the good news about the investigation. I concur that it will be an easy cake to slice. If they do have access to the original TomTom data it will be a slam dunk. They won't even need to look at this thread. Even if they don't have cadence or HR data, the original GPS tracks are damning in themselves. Not to belittle our work here in any way. I have doubts that an independent investigation would have been made if not for the investigation here. Give UListers credit for being onto this guy from the beginning since they know multi-day running and this one stank from the get-go. That said, I don't think they are obsessive and boisterous as the LRC crowd, except maybe some of the cross-overs :-). I'm no SKINS insider, but I'm convinced that obsession and drive to get the bottom of this matter has really been the impetus for the independent investigation, so good job, LRC. Pretty sure this guy is done with SKINS.
As far as the evidence, the screenshots, the data... Kudos to everybody who downloaded stuff, took screenshots, did data entry, did analysis, dug into his past, his charities, read his book, etc. This was a true team effort and a great example of the virtues of the anonymous nature of LRC.
Anyway, low key for a bit but awesome work, thanks for fixing timestamp-less Joanna, and that great writeup, Hiro.
PS The Joanna url is back there in the thread somewhere or possibly in the doc.
Hiro wrote:
It looks like the panel will be in contact with Rob, which means they can ask him questions (and expect a reply). Among other things, I think we should make a list of tough questions for Rob that we (eventually) forward onto the panel. I think we should keep it short, with maybe 5 - 10 really strong questions that don't have easy evasions.
Before you start posting candidates, consider this: it might benefit us to keep the questions hidden so that it is not easy to prepare answers. There are definitely questions that don't have any easy answers, but there may be some that catch him off guard.
I'm also thinking it might be more practical to form a small working group (via email or something) of the few individuals who are still actually participating. Thoughts?
How do you think they will surprise him? This won't be a live interrogation, they will just sent him some questions by email. He will have ample time to prepare his answers.
Michaels angel wrote:
I like mine long wrote:I see three plausible scenarios for SKINS employee Michael Spheinchter:
1. He was in on the con from the very beginning, and was promised a payout from RY. It would be easy to keep this from his managers.
2. He's young and impressionable. During the early days of the run there was some sharing of sausage, and RY and Dustbin then blackmailed him: participate in our scam or we'll show the world these pictures of your bratwurst. The Brits would have obviously planned this in advance. It may even be their standard procedure for these long events.
3. The con goes all the way to the top of SKINS, and Michael was simply the fall guy for if something went wrong. In which case he'd probably be given a year's severance pay or some such to keep quiet about it.
Occam's Razor suggests that number 1 is the most likely. But these chaps have long proven that they're not afraid of bizarre scenarios.
4) RV rides were done while Mike slept. Witness records could help clarify this.
Number 4 could have been the case. Rob starts a run behind the RV at night while Mike sleeps. Rob climbs on the ladder/roof/rides the bike for x number of hours. When the RV stops it's a sign that Mike is awake so Rob gets off, walks back a bit then starts running/walking again. Could explain the button hooks on strava.
bump
ThunderThighs wrote:
runnerrachel wrote:+1, this thread is epic and you guys have done a brilliant job. I don't see how these professors can reach any other conclusion than the logical one.
Hookers and a bit of money.
Can one of the basement dwellers (Blanch or Fake laz) give this thread a bump to the front page of the message board from time to time. I want to be able to find it come September.
Skins problem wrote:
ThunderThighs wrote:Hookers and a bit of money.
Can one of the basement dwellers (Blanch or Fake laz) give this thread a bump to the front page of the message board from time to time. I want to be able to find it come September.
There are other threads on this board?
Sure thing sweetie.
xoxo
triathleteguru wrote:
Hiro wrote:I'm also thinking it might be more practical to form a small working group (via email or something) of the few individuals who are still actually participating. Thoughts?
We did this when the Mike Rossi story/thread exploded and while it didn't succeed in getting him DQ'd, it was much more productive than the thread here at LR. We used Facebook and formed a private group. I would recommend it, maybe combined with another google document that isn't publicized outside of the private FB group.
Yep, definitely the way to go, I'm happy to chair it and take charge, but only if that SaraB trouble maker from the Rossi thread isn't included.
Whew. Had to catch up quite a few days and several hundred posts. Several thoughts.
1. Awesome analysis by so many. The lane closure in AZ. The buttonhooks. The overlapping bike and run gps video. The plagiarism. And much more. Great analysis.
2. I would like to look at any data from the first day very closely. Michael and Dustin allegedly didn't know RY had started until 2.5 hours into the run. That should've been enough time to get him up the Santa Ana Bike Trail on a bike and then he starts "running" through Riverside. I doubt he pulled a 70 or 80 mile run the first day because that seems to be too close to his max distance for a stand-alone day. RY could get away with biking on a bike path for 20 or 30 miles because it wouldn't look out of place. Is there a strava link for me to examine the first day?
3. Still not sure what to think about when Michael joined the scam or why. According to the skins website, one of Michael's primary duties was data. The data is so convoluted and duplicate and slapdash and missing gaps that he had to know from early on. It wasn't just done while Michael slept. Maybe he thought, "It's for charity so it's close enough, and nobody will ever care or know." Or maybe he thought, Frank G's record was not really legit so it really didn't matter. (I'm sure RY had at least googled Frank G's record and possibly read the book "46 Days.")
4. I very much like the choice of Roger Pielke and Ross Tucker. Neither of them are going to risk losing the reputations of their jobs and careers by giving RY any benefit of a doubt on this. I think the cumulative evidence is so overwhelming that RY cheated that they will come to the same conclusion. I've read Tucker's stuff for years and he does some great micro-analysis of all kinds of different athletic and endurance feats. In fact, I expect them to find more smoking guns than have already turned up in this thread. (Please don't take that the wrong way as if lrc posters haven't done good work, it's just that Tucker excels on micro analysis of athletic feats.) I have a feeling the 2 of them will demand to see the actual TomTom data with HR and cadence because their reputations will be on the line and they will want the absolute strongest case to support their conclusion.
Robert Young the awful runner, much prefers being on a bike.
From his book:
trying to catch up wrote:
3. Still not sure what to think about when Michael joined the scam or why. According to the skins website, one of Michael's primary duties was data. The data is so convoluted and duplicate and slapdash and missing gaps that he had to know from early on. It wasn't just done while Michael slept. Maybe he thought, "It's for charity so it's close enough, and nobody will ever care or know." Or maybe he thought, Frank G's record was not really legit so it really didn't matter. (I'm sure RY had at least googled Frank G's record and possibly read the book "46 Days.")
.
IMO the reason that Michael, Dustin and Robert are all motivated to ignore, condone or perform the cheating is quite simple and the same for each individual. MONEY!
Because Michael worked for Skins he believed he could bring home the big company win $$$$ by having a relative nobody turn into a media story in New York City. You cant buy that type of advertisement. Whether he new that it wasn't happening without cheating going into the event or learned after the first instance of cheating is up for debate. But ever single person had a financial reason to cheat.
Bike investigator wrote:
Robert Young the awful runner, much prefers being on a bike.
From his book:
http://i.imgur.com/TrPfHzF.png
Looking at the strava data, I'm actually surprised to see that it looks like his first 24 hours covering 81.7 miles in 9 legs were done on foot, not bike. Even the initial 30.5 miles looks like a runner's route, not a cyclist, when he deviates from the bike path. I expected to find another smoking gun here, but don't.
Don't get me wrong. I think this transcon was a big sham and there are plenty of other smoking guns. But the opening leg actually looks legit even though the paces would be foolish, impetuous, naive, and inefficient for anyone attempting 7 straight weeks of 60 mile days.
trying to catch up wrote:
Bike investigator wrote:Robert Young the awful runner, much prefers being on a bike.
From his book:
http://i.imgur.com/TrPfHzF.pngLooking at the strava data, I'm actually surprised to see that it looks like his first 24 hours covering 81.7 miles in 9 legs were done on foot, not bike. Even the initial 30.5 miles looks like a runner's route, not a cyclist, when he deviates from the bike path. I expected to find another smoking gun here, but don't.
Don't get me wrong. I think this transcon was a big sham and there are plenty of other smoking guns. But the opening leg actually looks legit even though the paces would be foolish, impetuous, naive, and inefficient for anyone attempting 7 straight weeks of 60 mile days.
Quote from RY book
"And now here I was running around in a park with dreams of world records and helping charities. You couldn't make that up."
Well you DID make it up!
