Down goes the Dow

coach d,

I wouldn't buy Macy's with your money. Good luck.

Igy

agip wrote:

I see green, I see green

The prettiest color you've ever seeeeeen!

I see green, I see green, I see green

Glad to see you haven't joined Igy in the dark side. I see the 14-day RSI at 29, which means a pretty sold out market. But remember that we will still see tough eps comparisons due to oil in 4Q2015, so we might need to be patient for the second quarter before we see much of that green, although the New Year's Sale they're holding on Wall Street is pretty good.

I also think we need to be mindful of what Lawrence Summers said in his OpEd piece in the Washington Post yesterday:

coach d,

I won't throw stones on market knowledge. REITs underperform in a rising interest rate environment. Macy's is selling their best properties. Maybe your short term investment in Macy's will workout. It is not my style. SHLD is under $18 and dying, and so are several of the malls where both M and SHLD are located.

There is nothing dark about my beliefs or sinister about my beliefs.

Igy

Igy,

Sears Holdings went from 12 to 190 in just over 3 years between 2004 and 2007, so I see M at less than 50% of what it sold for in July as a risk/reward worth taking.

I think a lot of people here would be shocked to see how much retail stocks have gone up in this market cycle. Macy's was up 950% in July since March 2009, before the bottom fell out. Macy's was up MORE than either Netflix or Facebook over equal time frames. Ross Stores, which I have had since 6/22/2009 is up 439% since then and is my second best stock after NFLX. I am not ready to say that one of the best stocks on the street is now suddenly worthless.

I'm not into boasting about how much I made or making claims with 20/20 hindsight--I post actual positions and people like Agip can decide for themselves--and I do that to show that, despite the terrible results from 401ks/mutual funds that have resulted in essentially your/my generation not being able to afford to retire, you can still do what I did in the 1990s with just a few stocks and holding them (the original six stocks I bought in 2009 are up 535% today). But the truth is that my family (my wife, her brother and sister, and my inlaws) and I made millions being short commodities last year, and last week was the best week we ever had, once again due to being short commodities. So the problem I have is how to reinvest all those profits (when you have futures positions, you don't need to close to take the profits out). So the problem I have is how to reinvest all those profits. I see some other stocks (BAC, WFC, LNT, NOC, NVDA, GT), but not many bargains as Warren Buffett said. Macy's may have the largest potential over the next year or two that I see.

LNT in my post above should be LMT (Lockheed Martin), although Alliant Energy looks pretty good as well.

coach d,

I don't question your success or your methodology. Many successful money managers have a similar process. You highlighted David Lynch and the MS Institutional Growth Fund a few weeks back. I am quite familiar with the strategy, Mr. Lynch, and as I mentioned the mutual fund version was the best performer in 2014.

I have a value slant and lean to what has worked for me. I levered up long in 2008, went even weight stocks in 2010, and net short in spring 2015. Currently I am short biotech, technology and S&P 500. I do not plan to go long in anything for the time being.

I see the environment deteriorating and I sincerely believe we are in one of poorer investment environments. I post what I feel represents truth from my viewpoint. I have been pretty clear on my views which naturally opens me up to ridicule when it appears I am wrong. The institutional momentum trade is long in the tooth. I do not believe that is truly smart money.

I wish you and the others who post here the best on your trades.

Igy

Coach d, I have said here many times that I do not use the markets to make money. I will go for a ride when indexes look likely to do better than I can do otherwise, but I don't use them as you do.

Not only that, but I have, in general, expressed approval for your strategies and congratulated you on your successes. The single criticism I have had is that in considering single stocks, IMO you tend to veer too far into business operations as an end, rather than into what they mean to the share price.

Regarding Macy's, I said that as a retail entity, they suck. And they do. Their RE holdings are a different animal altogether. Yes, let's look at Sears. Same deal. As a retail entity, they suck, and have for some time. They are alive, but it is despite their retail flounderings. Macy's is an early/mid-stage Sears.

You seem to have read that retail business commentary as an indictment of their entire business. They do have "some" value, but they need to know how to make it work for them properly, and I am at this point unconvinced that they can do so. Wholesale change is required, and now. As for "unlocking a huge store of value", that is sales speak. I know, I do it all the time. Without a detailed explanation of how that is to be done and in what time-frame, it is only so much b.s..

Also, commercial RE valuations are sketchy, and you shouldn't rely on those valuations unless they are held by an unbelievably well-capitalized business, or a business that specializes in management of precisely the kind of property they own. Commercial RE value is absolutely, totally, and completely dependent on the particular tenancy that can be achieved.

Macy's future is anybody's guess, but IMO the one thing that can be said for sure is that they retail business sucks.

Regarding "the markets", as you know, there is a wide variety of instruments that are available. You have done well with your commodity shorts, and I not only agreed with those positions, but I also congratulated you on your success. If you had followed my explicit suggestions, related to the CAD and the TSX, you would have made much more than you actually have. Makes ME wonder how much YOU actually know about the markets. (I don't actually mean that, I just want to demonstrate how unfortunate it is when said.)

It's not worth coming here and disparaging anybody for having different knowledge regarding the same subject. I take my knowledge and use it differently than you use yours--you choose to buy Macy's, I choose to do something else, and not buy Macy's. What you seem to overlook is that we can both be right in our (different) calls. The general case is the same, on a larger scale: at the moment, I use my knowledge to not be in the markets and to do other things, whereas you use yours to be in. And we have both done well.

If you want to criticize anybody, criticize one-trick pony blowhard know-nothing egomaniacs like Flagpole. (laughing at myself, in anticipation of the obvious trolling responses) He must be doing EXTREMELY well at the moment. Maybe he should go on a Macy's buying spree!

Not my call:

http://money.cnn.com/2016/01/12/investing/markets-sell-everything-cataclysmic-year-rbs/index.html

Igy

I'd guess that selling in US stocks won't stop until oil stabilizes or even better gets back to $40 or more - this collapse in oil is causing all kinds of instability.

I think China's problems will be less and less focused on - but oil in the $20s is going to cause international financial chaos.

Oil has served as a conduit for rich countries to fund poor ones - our money was keeping Russia, Saudi, iran, iraq, venezuela etc...upright...without that support many countries are going to have currency crises that spread.

agip,

Oil cannot be isolated from the broader view that something is not right in the global economy.

Igy

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

agip,

Oil cannot be isolated from the broader view that something is not right in the global economy.

Igy

well nothing can be completely isolated but oil's crash seems to be from increased supply, which is not indicative of a weak global econom.

oil demand is fine

Sure and that is why the folks in the Baaken are pulling up stakes.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Sure and that is why the folks in the Baaken are pulling up stakes.

correct - oil supply has increased more than demand. So prices have fallen below the level shale makes sense.

igy sometimes I think you take a fact and your first plan is to see how it supports your thesis.

while I'd say your first plan should be to see how it hurts your thesis.

anyone want to make a gentleman's bet?

I'd say the next 200+ Dow point day will be up.

Loser gives $50 to Doctors without Borders

(I would take this bet if I were you - I have been wrong on virtually everything for the last 13 months)

agip,

My thesis then for falling oil and commodity prices: 1) Chinese infrastructure mal-investment has hit a natural limit; 2) Oil shale fracking mal-investment supported by high yield bonds and MLPs is cracking. 3) Saudis hurting Iran and Russia for geopolitical reasons. In summary, numbers 1 and 2 investments were made under the assumption that oil prices had a much higher floor.

That's my thesis and I'm sticking to it!

It is interesting seeing how oil is influencing the market. A good pair trade would be long oil, short FANG. coach d would probably play it the other way.

Igy

Too many down days lately for me to take that bet....

Igy

agip wrote:

I'd guess that selling in US stocks won't stop until oil stabilizes or even better gets back to $40 or more - this collapse in oil is causing all kinds of instability.

I think China's problems will be less and less focused on - but oil in the $20s is going to cause international financial chaos.

Oil has served as a conduit for rich countries to fund poor ones - our money was keeping Russia, Saudi, iran, iraq, venezuela etc...upright...without that support many countries are going to have currency crises that spread.

agip, sometimes you surprise me.

Ladies and gentlemen, we have a winner. It's not so much about oil itself, as it is the responses to oil. Currencies! Tied in with sovereign control. Take it to the bank, literally. I cannot say more because 1) I'm not allowed, and 2) I honestly don't know enough at the moment to really say anything of any value.

I was/am part of a group that buys businesses, changes them, packages them with others, and sells them (which is why I am often leery of coach d's strategy of considering public statements about business operations). We came upon currencies only as a by-product of our main activities, when involved with international businesses--almost by accident, because a big move happened just when we happened to be in the thick of a deal, and one guy understood that event to have larger ramifications going forward.

Our group will not do anything as a group, but as individuals we are talking about it and sharing ideas. I have been mostly a fly on the wall, offering political and social observations about areas of the world that I frequent. I don't claim to understand the intricacies of just how to make money on currency knowledge, but I will probably follow someone's lead. I have access to serious expertise in this field.

I don't know if I will be comfortable with what I will need to do, or that I will have sufficient amounts to play with to make it worthwhile. The calculus is different for others. There will be serious money to be made this year in currencies. I know some who have already re-positioned to take advantage of the currency year.

And yes, Igy, it is tied to oil, as agip suggests. While it may not be the dominant force in economic markets, it can indeed be the dominant force in financial markets.

From the IMF 12/30/2015

Global economic growth will be disappointing next year and the outlook for the medium-term has also deteriorated, the head of the International Monetary Fund has warned.

The IMF managing director, Christine Lagarde, said the prospect of rising interest rates in the US and an economic slowdown in China were feeding uncertainty and a higher risk of economic vulnerability worldwide.

What do posters think about RBS "sell everything"?

Cataclysmic? Down 10-20% is cataclysmic? LMAO, get real.

margin + oil = currencies

I have already essentially "sold everything", but earlier, when I knew it was smart. I would not counsel anybody to do so, without knowing exactly what levels they bought in at, what they held, what their strategy was, etc.

Strange statement from RBS.