Robert Young fakes run across America

executive summary wrote:

Conclusion: There is neither GPS evidence, video evidence or evidence from witnesses that RY has cheated. As there are gaps in the GPS data, they cannot be used as evidence for a record run. However, this point is moot as RY got injured and did not complete the record attempt. He does not intend to seek the Guinness world record for the fastest run across the USA.

Comment from SKINS: It should be noted that RY agrees that the data collection was not good enough despite the hard efforts of the whole team. They are now looking into better methods for data gathering. We are certain that they will fine tune these minor issues and we look forward to sponsoring Rob's next adventure.

Also, as posted yesterday on the authoritative runners bible LetsRun:

"There are huge gaps, so how can the data possibly be used to confirm or deny his cheating when there is so much missing?"

Focus, my arse. wrote:

DJ Phat wrote:

Thanks for the advice, gandpa, but we've done this before. We know what is off limits and what is on the table.

Now why don't you slog back to the ultra list with all the other turtle geezers.

Agree, we've had wankers like Jehosephat on other cheater threads where they take what they see as the moral high ground (when it suits them of course), but then low and behold what does further sleuthing lead to?, more links and sources to the cheating.

Give the guy a break. He's used to posting over at the RW forum. SRL or something or another.

He's a noob at how we sleuth.

I haven't ever logged or looked at GPS pace data, so take this as you will...

The sections in the really mountainous areas have some really suspect spikes in pace to me, especially when the grade adjusted pace is used (I don't know how accurate that adjusted pace is).

Turn on the GAP in the following run, and there appears to be a pattern. The spikes corresponding to outrageous adjusted paces are all going up steep hills after a steep downhill. However, the The spike in the GAP is not at the valley of the hills though, it's a noticeable amount up the steep hill. That seems like how a vehicle could coast, not a runner in my experience. The runner loses all momentum going back up hills like these after a few steps, not meters up a hill. And the runner's real pace would just drop.

Look at the one below. There's examples everywhere, but most egregiously, the GAP drops to 2:35 per mile going up a 21% grade after going down an 18% grade near the end of the run. But that GAP is ~1/3 up the way of that hill which looks like it would be ~100 meters long. Also note that the actual pace going down the hill is 5:00 to 5:10 per mile and ~5:15 going up the hill. There's no way IMO those paces would be so close together for a runner. Could a world class sprinter could run that fast up such a hill?

https://www.strava.com/activities/617303325

Focus, my arse. wrote:

DJ Phat wrote:

Thanks for the advice, gandpa, but we've done this before. We know what is off limits and what is on the table.

Now why don't you slog back to the ultra list with all the other turtle geezers.

Agree, we've had wankers like Jehosephat on other cheater threads where they take what they see as the moral high ground (when it suits them of course), but then low and behold what does further sleuthing lead to?, more links and sources to the cheating.

Dude, "low and behold" makes no fvcking sense, now does it?

TroLLminator wrote:

Investigator wrote:

I found an article a while back where the author corroborated the existence of scars on his thigh and foot IIRC, one of which Rob said was due to his father forcing his sister to stab him.

He's so full of $hit. There is only one reason why someone would make public claims this intimate in nature. To gain sympathy. Might as well also start telling people you blew up 50 terrorists in Afghanistan Rob.

You mad, bro?

Ukrunner777 wrote:

triple poster wrote:

Fixed the url, silly me

The image of his route needs to be posted on his Facebook page, with a big fooking question mark!

I posted that last night a few pages back here. Also posted it on his FB...

I posted some other analyses of his GPS data too. Nothing groundbreaking, but a histogram of the actual Strava data (as opposed to RV tracker done by others before) shows SEVERAL HUNDRED minutes accumulated at sub-4 pace... Check the Google doc.

He is uploading to Strava and checking if his activities "look" ok, and they almost do with Stravas smoothing, occasional mentions of best estimated efforts, and whole mile splits. But - the raw data shows a LOT of time accumulated at high speeds. Probably just a lot of times here and there of letting the RV/bike pick up a little too much speed...

probably right, but so hard to tell with gps data. Not enough detail and not accurate enough. the 21% grade is more like 6% looking at the location in google earth.

Investigator wrote:

I posted some other analyses of his GPS data too. Nothing groundbreaking, but a histogram of the actual Strava data (as opposed to RV tracker done by others before) shows SEVERAL HUNDRED minutes accumulated at sub-4 pace... Check the Google doc.

yeah i think that is one of our stronger pieces of evidence. Carries more weight since it's from gps and not tracker. One drawback is the x-axis is not to a good scale, you have to count each row to figure out what speed it is.

skyrefuge wrote:

And has there been any discussion of this craziness near Toledo, KS, just west of Emporia?

https://www.strava.com/activities/617321196

For shiz and giggles we put the tracker on a chicken and Robbie had to catch it. Great fun. We had Robs running after that chicken like a wanker. Of course we gutted the chicken after he caught it.

Just finished a 64 mile run wrote:

Look at the one below. There's examples everywhere, but most egregiously, the GAP drops to 2:35 per mile going up a 21% grade after going down an 18% grade near the end of the run. But that GAP is ~1/3 up the way of that hill which looks like it would be ~100 meters long. Also note that the actual pace going down the hill is 5:00 to 5:10 per mile and ~5:15 going up the hill. There's no way IMO those paces would be so close together for a runner. Could a world class sprinter could run that fast up such a hill?

https://www.strava.com/activities/617303325

That's actually a pretty flat route. Or at least, the variations are too small and come too fast to draw any conclusions from that particular segment.

Elevation profiles generally mark the unimproved surface of the earth, and are unaware of things such as bridges and tunnels. For that 21%/18% dip you're referring to, that's a stream bed crossed by a bridge, so from a runner's perspective that dip is probably barely there at all.

And thus, Strava's GAP is completely wrong there, since it's wrong about the elevation changes. The GAP shouldn't show any sort of spike at that point.

Even ignoring that, I've never seen a %-grade estimator on a website that does anything better than "shitty" at calculating grades, and Strava doesn't seem to be much of an exception. I find the only good way to really know a grade is if it's a steady grade of at least a tenth of a mile (the longer the better), mark the elevations at either end, and do the math on my own. On that segment, measuring from the peak at 1.9mi to the end at 3.0mi, it pencils out to about a -2.4% grade, and that's really as tight as I'd feel comfortable getting in such a calculation. -2.4% is not nothing, but it's not at all comparable to the effects of a 20% grade.

1 2 3 green wrote:

Investigator wrote:

I posted some other analyses of his GPS data too. Nothing groundbreaking, but a histogram of the actual Strava data (as opposed to RV tracker done by others before) shows SEVERAL HUNDRED minutes accumulated at sub-4 pace... Check the Google doc.

yeah i think that is one of our stronger pieces of evidence. Carries more weight since it's from gps and not tracker. One drawback is the x-axis is not to a good scale, you have to count each row to figure out what speed it is.

Yes limitation of the software that it does speed not pace. I plan on making it more pretty and interpretable.

Michael Ryan Speicher works for SKINS...

By the way, thanks to whomever created the table of contents for the Google Doc.

skyrefuge wrote:

Asher Delmott wrote:

This would have been in the time frame a film crew was with him (possibly ESPN based on their account of the story). They probably had him doing random stuff to get some "better" shots of him running.

Good catch, that's at least a theory that doesn't require straight-up insanity from Rob. It was at lunchtime, and who doesn't like shots near railroad tracks (or even train cars!) to epitomize the crossing of middle-America?

It's insane if you're intent on breaking the fastest transcon of the US record. That ESPN director must have been a mean SOB - making poor Rob do all these north south, east west runs for dramatic footage. But Rob's such a nice guy he didn't complain. He knew they were on schedule to break the record by 4 days and a detour to get good footage for his major sponsor SKINS would be good value.

This is a very good post. We need an executive summary. For us it's very obvious he cheated, but the "independent" analyzers might think otherwise. They are appointed by SKINS, the sponsor of Rob and the employer of one of his accomplices.

Who expected this verdict concerning Mike Rossi?

triple poster wrote:

double poster wrote:

did I already post this?

http://i.imgur.com/hS8KgA8.png/link

]

Training log from strava of RY's mileage by day.

Also, just saw this on the RY Investigation doc:

http://i.imgur.com/ieAwCli.jpg

the map showing all the strava segs that have been uploaded. Where is the discussion (what page) on that? Very interesting. Obviously, most of the missing data are the super fast sections...

Fixed the url, silly me

Why is there a mention of "+XT" (cross training)?

1 2 3 green wrote:

It should not be necessary for us to "present" the evidence. We gathered the evidence, cataloged it in a easy to use document, and handed it over. The "independent analyzers" should be able to take that and... analyze it. If they still come to the conclusion you predict, then they were either not independent, or not competent.

A simplified presentation like you are talking about is what's needed to convince Mrs. HalfMary Hobbyjogger on facebook, not a panel of experts.

"Panel of experts"? You're dreaming. The guys set to look at this will neither be independent nor competent. And very far from experts. Welcome to the real world.

Who do you want to convince? What's the goal of all this? Isn't it to convince the world that RY is a cheater? And who is a better representative of this world than who you condescendingly refer to as Mrs. HalfMary Hobbyjogger?

Skins's CEO is way more in tune with the global running community than a bunch of running data nerds. What he thinks can convince Mrs. HalfMary Hobbyjogger (or more correctly: what will convince Mrs. HalfMary to buy more SKINS products) will be the outcome of this.

People should understand that there's no independent panel of experts. There will at most be a couple of people who will tell Mr Fuller what's best for his business. And they will take into consideration Mr Fuller's own point of view. You can maximize your chances of convincing Mr Fuller and these guys, or you can hope that a messy pile of hundreds of web pages will convince them. Don't whine if it doesn't.

I'm working on the "executive summary" as we speak, I expect to be finished sometime tonight or tomorrow. It will be posted on the blog. I'll post a link when finished.

Hiro wrote:

I'm working on the "executive summary" as we speak, I expect to be finished sometime tonight or tomorrow. It will be posted on the blog. I'll post a link when finished.

Great.

What about the "bombshell"? I can search for keywords in his book.

RYinvestigator wrote:

triple poster wrote:

Fixed the url, silly me

Why is there a mention of "+XT" (cross training)?

Not sure. I made the training log public:

I had to change a few that were called "Ride" -- not sure why since they were all uploaded the same way, through file upload GPX.