57 COVID deaths in GA today: Post-opening spike starting?

Giles Corey wrote:... posts a chart of daily new cases to "prove" that daily deaths are not declining around the world -- even though they are and the data and charts I posted show this?

You have no idea how to interpret the chart you showed. The trend in the chart of daily fatalities you posted shows exactly the same thing as I've shown, as I have already explained. You're being purposefully obstinate or you are bone-headedly stupid. No third possibility.

interested reader wrote:

Giles Corey wrote:... posts a chart of daily new cases to "prove" that daily deaths are not declining around the world -- even though they are and the data and charts I posted show this?

You have no idea how to interpret the chart you showed. The trend in the chart of daily fatalities you posted shows exactly the same thing as I've shown, as I have already explained. You're being purposefully obstinate or you are bone-headedly stupid. No third possibility.

How many ways are there to interpret a graph that shows that daily deaths worldwide are down from a peak of 10,000 to less than 4,000?

Giles Corey wrote:How many ways are there to interpret a graph that shows that daily deaths worldwide are down from a peak of 10,000 to less than 4,000?

I guess you are plain stupid. For the last month, the trend is increasing.

States started opening 4-5 weeks ago, so this should start soon (but it will not). Also what happened to the 2 week lag? That didn't work out? Maybe that's Fat person that kept saying this. I get you fatalist doomsdayers confused.

interested reader wrote:

Giles Corey wrote:How many ways are there to interpret a graph that shows that daily deaths worldwide are down from a peak of 10,000 to less than 4,000?

I guess you are plain stupid. For the last month, the trend is increasing.

You do know that a lower points on the vertical axis as you move to the right means less daily deaths?

Read the twitter feed. 27 days is what data science currently shows. And it is 27 days from the date of the infection. People did not all flock to bars and restaurants filled with infected people the day states started reopening. It takes time for the virus to spread. In the states that are currently surging, increased death rates are not going to be seen until later this month. Texas was at about 1,500 hospitalization back around Memorial day weekend. The current fatalities are from people who were infected back around then. Hospitalizations are currently up to 5,500. Most of that surge came over the past two weeks. So, mid July is when you will see mortality numbers move up in Texas.

Giles Corey wrote:

interested reader wrote:

I guess you are plain stupid. For the last month, the trend is increasing.

You do know that a lower points on the vertical axis as you move to the right means less daily deaths?

If tomorrow there were 9,999 deaths, how would one interpret that trend?

We are already seeing hospitalizations start to move up again. Check out TX, CA, NV, AZ. Unfortunately, there is no data for FL. But deaths really don't start to increase dramatically until hospital capacity is reached. Then you have a situation like we saw in Italy and NYC earlier in the year. Houston is starting to get close.

reer wrote:

Giles Corey wrote:

You do know that a lower points on the vertical axis as you move to the right means less daily deaths?

If tomorrow there were 9,999 deaths, how would one interpret that trend?

I would say it is an increase over less than 4,000.

Are there other ways to interpret it?

I never said anything about a 2 week lag and I don't remember anyone else saying that either.

If you go back and read my statements I have been mostly right about all of this. From the beginning I saw a spike in cases where almost everyone else was ignoring it. I said it was an exponential increase and I was right. Exponential functions start to rise slowly and then they rise quickly. That's exactly what we have seen regarding cases.

Regarding deaths, I have been more circumspect. I have said that you expect to see a rise in deaths following a rise in cases and if we see it then it will be a few weeks after the rise in cases, but certainly more than just two weeks. However, I have also said that there are many unknowns and we would have to see if a spike in cases really did materialize.

Thankfully, deaths have not spiked as of yet. However, with the explosion of new cases it's hard to continue to be so circumspect about it. Even if the fatality rate is much lower than it was a few months ago, a deadly disease allowed to run rampant like it is today is almost certainly going to result in a lot of deaths.

[quote]Fat hurts wrote:

Thankfully, deaths have not spiked as of yet.

In fact they have dropped precipitously

There will be an uptick in deaths over the next 10 days. Up to probably an average of 18-19 from the current 14/day 7-day average.

Get tested, people. If you aren't getting tested, you are hurting your community.

Wear a mask in public, social distance, wash your hands, and GET TESTED.

[quote]brazen2 wrote:

There will be an uptick in deaths over the next 10 days. Up to probably an average of 18-19 from the current 14/day 7-day average.

Okay.

Let's see.

brazen2 wrote:

There will be an uptick in deaths over the next 10 days. Up to probably an average of 18-19 from the current 14/day 7-day average.

Get tested, people. If you aren't getting tested, you are hurting your community.

You keep saying this and you still won't answer these two simple questions:

Who should be tested?

How often?

brazen2 wrote:

Wear a mask in public, social distance, wash your hands, and GET TESTED.

Here is some better advice. If you really want to help your community don't go out in public unless it's absolutely necessary.

Testing won't stop the spread. Staying away from other people will.

115,000 tested in the last week compared to 42,000 per week about a month ago. Big increase, but we need to do better if we want to get this under control.

~15-20 more hospitalizations per day than about a month ago. By end of next week will likely reach high in hospitalizations from early May.

~10-12 fewer deaths per day than about a month ago. (only 14 reported in last 3 days - expect big number today 40+ or maybe 50+)

New testing methods are on the horizon, but we all need to do our part to be successful.

Wear a mask

Social distance

Wash your hands

GET TESTED

Giles Corey wrote:

Obvi wrote:

Hey, it's our favorite anti-semite conspiracy theorist - back, better than ever!

How's it going K5? Any new conspiracies you've got to peddle, today?

Well I guess that proves all the graphs showing massive decreases in daily deaths world wide and in America are wrong.

Nope, just pointing out that you are a disgusting racist pig whose particular mental illness consistently pulls his mind toward conspiracy theories - usually conspiracies involving those bogeymen, the J*ws.

Amiright?

Obvi wrote:

Nope, just pointing out that you are a disgusting racist pig whose particular mental illness consistently pulls his mind toward conspiracy theories - usually conspiracies involving those bogeymen, the J*ws.

Amiright?

I mean, this is all just one grand conspiracy perpetrated by the J*ws, right?

Don't worry, Giles - Just because THEY are out to get you doesn't mean THEY will succeed. Especially if you keep up your vigilance against THEM.

(Really, I'm not laughing with you. I'm laughing AT you)

brazen2 wrote:

115,000 tested in the last week compared to 42,000 per week about a month ago. Big increase, but we need to do better if we want to get this under control.

~15-20 more hospitalizations per day than about a month ago. By end of next week will likely reach high in hospitalizations from early May.

~10-12 fewer deaths per day than about a month ago. (only 14 reported in last 3 days - expect big number today 40+ or maybe 50+)

New testing methods are on the horizon, but we all need to do our part to be successful.

Wear a mask

Social distance

Wash your hands

GET TESTED

Why won't you answer my questions?

Who should be tested?

How often?