10k- 39:34; 1/2 M- 1:35:19... how can I break 3?

Allen1959 wrote:

Yes, earlier in the thread I acknowledged a sub-3 in a couple months is unlikely, but it's fun to watch someone "go for it," so I'll continue to encourage.

I also mentioned previously that the last I ran sub-3, I had recently run 1:22 for a HM. His 1:35 certainly doesn't bode well, and he'd be wise to follow the mostly good advice he's gotten -- slow mileage build over a longer time frame, etc. But that wouldn't be as much fun to follow!

So basically you’re encouraging him to entertain you— at the detriment of his long-term development— and go for a goal he’s almost certain to fail at. If you want entertainment, get a Netflix account.

I’d much rather see him successfully train for 3:10-3:15 and chase after sub-3 in a year or so.

To the OP:

All I tell you is this: Multiply your recent HM by factor of 2, add about 8 minutes, and you'll have your final marathon time with 70-90% confidence, if and there are many ifs but the two most important are: 1) the conditions on your big day are optimal; temps, humidity, wind, etc.; and 2.) you are properly trained for the distance... If you can do your long runs, 16-20-milers, consistently at your "target" MPs + 30-45 seconds (~7:20-7:35 min/miles), and recover from them properly... and not get injured in the process... You have a chance to crack a sub-3:00 marathon...

So, if can run your half, 4 weeks prior to your big marathon, in 1:26, and recover from it, you should be able to do it... Barely... And it's gonna be tough... Esp. on limited mileage, the last 10K is going to hurt... But hey, I'm rooting for you;)

Expert Translator wrote:

Allen1959 wrote:

Yes, earlier in the thread I acknowledged a sub-3 in a couple months is unlikely, but it's fun to watch someone "go for it," so I'll continue to encourage.

I also mentioned previously that the last I ran sub-3, I had recently run 1:22 for a HM. His 1:35 certainly doesn't bode well, and he'd be wise to follow the mostly good advice he's gotten -- slow mileage build over a longer time frame, etc. But that wouldn't be as much fun to follow!

So basically you’re encouraging him to entertain you— at the detriment of his long-term development— and go for a goal he’s almost certain to fail at. If you want entertainment, get a Netflix account.

I’d much rather see him successfully train for 3:10-3:15 and chase after sub-3 in a year or so.

It's alright Allen, you may follow my folly for sport. Trying to make this week a peak week.

12/9 - 10 easy @8:55/mile

12/10 - Tonight, 2 wu. 4 mile tempo @6:50; 8x800@3:10, 50s rest. 2 cd.

Someone made a comment earlier about having a heavy week going into the 1/2M will be pretty hard. I am wondering, should I make the week leading up to the 1/2M a heavy week? or should I make the week after the 1/2M a heavy week? After all its more of a workout than a race, I see benefit of running it on tired legs as good marathon workout. But I can also see running it around 1:26/27 as a big mental boost.

stil_kannonier

12/9 - 10 easy @8:55/mile

12/10 - Tonight, 2 wu. 4 mile tempo @6:50; 8x800@3:10, 50s rest. 2 cd.

Pretty close.

12/10 - 4 mile tempo @6:51; drills, stretch; 8x800 @3:08, 60s rest.

Tomorrow-

AM: 3 ez

PM: 1 ez, 3 mile tempo @6:35, 4 ez

Assuming your half represents your current fitness, there’s no way you can break 3 in two months. I ran a 1:35 half 8 weeks before my last marathon. I did hold back a little from all out effort and I was fatigued from being in the middle of the marathon training block.

My goal was 3:15, but I didn’t even hit that (Granted I’m no real runner, but I feel like you must be similar to me. I legitimately think that I could have run a sub-1:30 half if I tapered for that and ran more aggressively). There is nothing you can do in the last two months before a marathon to improve your speed or fitness that much. 2-3 weeks of that will be taper (probably the most important part), so you have up to 6 weeks to improve fitness, but that’s nothing when it comes to marathon distance.

I think that if you pace for sub-3 in your marathon, you will blow up and end up with a worse time than if you paced more conservatively.

I realized that you registered a username and I read more of this thread than I had before.

My thinking is only further confirmed after reading more. Do your longer runs of 20+. You’ll need that training. Your MP tempos seem short on distance. 4 or 5 weeks out from your race you should probably do a 18-20 mile run with 14-15 miles at MP. That will be a very telling run that will let you know if you have a chance.

From everything that I’ve read on this thread you are very similar to me, except that your expectations are more unrealistic. I plan to go sub-3, but I’m not even sure that I’ll hit that’s in my next marathon trading block. Although I’m planning to follow a high mileage 5k plan to help my speed before going for a marathon again.

If I trained for another marathon starting now (race in 16-20 weeks), I’m not confident that I would be able to get to sub-3.

stil_kannonier wrote:

It's alright Allen, you may follow my folly for sport.

Thanks! I missed Translater's comment until now, and I suppose he's right. But if you wanna go for it, I will continue to encourage.

So many on LRC take marathons so darn seriously. They only run one or two a year, at most, so each one is a BIG deal.

My PR marathon was the third in three months (2:40) ... my sixth marathon in a year. I've also jumped into marathons after only three training runs during the previous six months -- just because I wanted to. So what if I had to walk some at 20 miles! They were all enjoyable.

Regarding the half marathon, I would RACE it, but would definitely taper a couple days prior to it, and take a couple easy days afterwards. You can still log some decent weekly mileage, though.

Good luck. And enjoy!

stil_kannonier wrote:

stil_kannonier

12/9 - 10 easy @8:55/mile

12/10 - Tonight, 2 wu. 4 mile tempo @6:50; 8x800@3:10, 50s rest. 2 cd.

Pretty close.

12/10 - 4 mile tempo @6:51; drills, stretch; 8x800 @3:08, 60s rest.

Tomorrow-

AM: 3 ez

PM: 1 ez, 3 mile tempo @6:35, 4 ez

Wait, so you did a tempo then 8x800 at faster than your race pace, and are now doing a tempo again in the evening? You are bizarre my friend.

12/11 - 2 ez, 4 @6:45/mile, 4 ez

Easy day compared to last night, I quite like the 4 miles at goal MP as like a shakeout from yestersay.

Tomorrow - 7 @7-7:15

Friday - 5 ez

Saturday - 7 ez

Sunday - 18 long run.

Tentative Total - 64

Allen1959 wrote:

Regarding the half marathon, I would RACE it

All I needed to hear.

Reading Scott Fauble's book and he doesn't like doing easy runs faster than 7 min pace. He's a 2:09 marathoner. I would say your 7@ 7-7:15 is too fast for an easy run for you. It's actually not all that far off from your goal marathon pace. You already did 2 workouts 2 days in a row, which is a recipe for disaster, so I would say the run today should be pretty chill and don't worry about pace.

Future weeks, you should space out your workouts with 1-2 easy days in between. So maybe Tuesday, Friday and Sunday are your key days. Or maybe Tuesday, Thursday and Sunday (which would get you more fresh to the long run). Or Wednesday and Sunday.

As I recall, your half marathon is four weeks before your marathon? I raced a half marathon three weeks prior to my most recent sub-3 marathon.

Like you, I wasn't following any particular plan, just getting in some distance and speed. My peak mileage week that entire year was the 63 miles listed below.

The three weeks leading to the half marathon:

5 x 1000m @ 3:26, 2 min recoveries

5 miles @ 7:39/mi

23 miles @ 8:30/mi

7 miles progression (9:15-6:23), 1-mi jog

14 miles @ 7:02/mi

7 miles @ 8:34/mi

Off

63 miles total

5 x 600m @ 2:00, 2-min recoveries

5 miles @ 8:08/mi

21 miles progression (8:44-6:50) 7:50 avg

4 miles @ 8:30/mi

12 miles progression (7:45-6:16); 2-mi jog

2 miles @ 8:30 with 6 sprints

Off

50 miles total

5K race @ 5:44/mi

15 miles @ 8:05/mi (blizzard conditions)

4 miles @ 7:47/mi

4 miles @ 7:46/mi with 10 sprints

7 miles easy

Off

Half Marathon race @ 6:19/mi

51 miles total

Weekly totals for the next three weeks, not counting the marathon, were 48, 39, 28. That included a 20-mile run at 7:48/mi, a 17-mile run at 8:23/mi, and a 17:32 5K a week before the marathon.

Allen, keep in mind that his 5k pace is about your half marathon pace.

gotta space out the workouts man wrote:

Allen, keep in mind that his 5k pace is about your half marathon pace.

Yeah. I'm just thinking with his recent 4:50 mile, his potential is so much faster. And I'm hoping he'll respond to training VERY quickly!

I couldn't break 5:10 for a mile when I ran those training weeks I just posted. I know, because a couple months later, I raced a mile on the track -- 5:10, and one on the road -- 5:06.

I ran 17:10 for 5K at the time. Gotta believe he can go low 17s without much more training???

Your suggestions about training pace and recovery days are very good. Looking at my training, that's pretty much what I did. Although, I do think sometimes an EASY long run can come the day after a workout.

Thanks Allen for showing me your weeks before and after half marathon, gives me a much better idea how to set them up while keeping the mileage up.

The back-to-back workouts are kinda my style, M- easy T- hardest W- hard Th- easy F - easy S- race Su- easy/long.

My training partner who is in equivalent shape ran a 17:25 at Turkey Trot 5k, so I place myself around that time +/- a few seconds.

Really looking forward to long run this weekend to get a feel for where I'm at. Ideally, I will go thru mile 13 faster than my 1/2M time from late october.

stil_kannonier wrote:

Thanks Allen for showing me your weeks before and after half marathon, gives me a much better idea how to set them up while keeping the mileage up.

The back-to-back workouts are kinda my style, M- easy T- hardest W- hard Th- easy F - easy S- race Su- easy/long.

My training partner who is in equivalent shape ran a 17:25 at Turkey Trot 5k, so I place myself around that time +/- a few seconds.

Really looking forward to long run this weekend to get a feel for where I'm at. Ideally, I will go thru mile 13 faster than my 1/2M time from late october.

That's one thing...but what's the history of your training partner? PR's? How much does she/he run? Are you currently in better fitness than them?

You're not giving us much of a frame of reference other than you hammer workouts back to back at paces far faster than marathon race pace yet can barely run that race pace for 8k...

This.

If you were in 17:25 shape for a 5k, you would have run 2-3 minutes faster in that 8k.

I'm a 2:5X marathoner, and often I train with some 2:40 and sub 2:30's guys, that doesn't mean I'm as fast as them.

What it really means is I often need to slow down. Like the above poster said, Fauble is running most of his miles at 7 minute pace. Sure, he's at altitude, and he's probably running over 100 mpw, but still, what is the equivalent of that for you? Probably 8:00 to 8:30. Do more at those paces. Sometimes run with your 17:25 friend, but know that every time you do, it's easier for him than you. And there is a reason for that.

ThisGuy wrote:

That's one thing...but what's the history of your training partner? PR's? How much does she/he run? Are you currently in better fitness than them?

You're not giving us much of a frame of reference other than you hammer workouts back to back at paces far faster than marathon race pace yet can barely run that race pace for 8k...

He's got slightly better endurance, I've got slightly better speed. We very likely match up perfectly at 5k. I beat him in a road mile and a 3200 in july- 5:04 to 5:11; 11:06 to 11:17. I assume he could run about 30-40s faster in the 10k than me right now.

honestly I look quite relaxed running circles round the track and make a conscious effort for good mechanics and smooth stride without 'hammering' it. Now I just to have to extend that smoothness to 26 miles..haha.

You're missing the point. How much does your partner run? Is he running similar mileage as you? Workouts? etc.