Renato Canova wrote:
I think it's not correct looking at the PB of the best athletes, in every distance, for understanding their real value.
For example, Mo Farah could run in Monaco a type of race very well paced (the best after the retirement of El Guerrouj) and improved his PB of more than 5.0 (3:28.81 vs 3:33.98), but his real value was already very close 3:30.0 in 2012, when he won in Eagle Rock (3:34.66) ahead Galen Rupp (3:34.75). So, he was lucky to find this opportunity. But, if he was not in Monaco, who today could suppose he has the ability running 3:28.8 ?
Both Gebrselassie abd Bekele never had this opportunity, so looking at their official PB is a mistake, if we want to suppose their real value.
Kenenisa ran 3 times in his life 1500m : 2 times in Shanghai, in September, at the end of very tough seasons when he won everything in 5000 and 10000m, when already with little training, for giving image to the meeting that is organized by his management, and a third time won in Stockholm in 2006 as preparation for 5000m. In all this cases, his times were almost the same (3:33.08, 3:33.13 in 2006 and 3:32.35 in 2007), this few days after running 10000m in Bruxelles.
Haile ran 3:31.76 indoor in Stuttgart (1st Feb 1998), but the day before, in Dortmund, was 6th in a competition of 800m in Dortmund with 1:50.39. Can somebody suppose this time in 800m could be his best at the moment ?
You need to understand that, at the moment, nobody can threaten the WR of 5000 and 10000m. Nor Rupp, neither Farah, nor some new Kenyan, neither some new Ethiopian.
We speak about two athletes completely out of the normal parameters.
Haile ran 18 times under 13' in the period 1995 - 2004, and 9 times under 27' in the period 1995 - 2007. After his first Marathon (London 2002) came back on the track, and during the winter 2003 ran 2 miles in 8:04.69 on indoor track.
Kenenisa ran 6 times under 12:50 and 21 times under 13:00.
In 10000m, 4 times under 26:30 and 8 times under 26:50, the most part of these remaining alone after the first half.
He has averages, for the best 10 personal performances, of 7:29.9 (3000), 12:47.8 (5000) and 26:39 (10000m).
His performances cover a period between 2003 and 2012, and, in my opinion, there is still the possibility of running inside his 10 best times (wait his 10000m in July...).
These two athletes were able to win, and to go for record without real rabbits.
For beating a record, we need to find athletes able to exhalt themselves as front runners, and this is not the case of Mo Farah, may be more similar the mentality of Galen Rupp. But his value is honestly too far for looking at a WR.
And, when we speak about a WR, we need to be lucky. I had the case of Shaheen, who in 2006 was in very much better shape than in 2004, but his WR remains Bruxelles 2004, not Zurich 2006, because of the level of the rabbits and the bad weather.
It's funny to create hypothesis, but the reality normally is very much different.